What it would take for each team to get (or stay) ranked.

[adoraz11]

Weekly Update:

Remember, I am just talking about what it would take to be ranked before conference play.

Butler- unranked & #57 (kenpom): basically the same place as last week, but took care of business. Big upcoming game vs. Purdue. They won't be ranked after beating Purdue, but I think they would get some votes.Only two games after that and not good opponents.
Creighton- #38 (AP) & #18 (kenpom): went down three spots in the AP, but it was actually a pretty good week after a bad week prior. Kenpom ranking improved by 7. Even of they win the next three, it's possible they won't be ranked (since their spot actually decreased this week). The Cal game is pretty important. Regardless, they will continue getting votes as long as they keep winning and they have a great Kenpom.
DePaul- unranked & #145 (kenpom): big drop in Kenpom and it's impossible for them to be ranked before conference play anyways.
Georgetown- unranked & #25 (kenpom): one opportunity to be ranked and it's in two weeks @ Kansas (#13). And win the other two very winnable games.
Marquette- unranked & #45 (kenpom): they won't be ranked. They had a chance at Wisconsin and lost. Still in decent shape Kenpom wise, which ironically increased a couple spots even after the loss.
Providence- unranked & #61 (kenpom): lucky (but good) win at RI this week, only by one. Win the next two very winnable games and then win @mass (22) and I think they'll get some votes.
Seton Hall- unranked & #127 (kenpom): good week with that win @ Rutgers. Won't be ranked, but just need to keep winning and improving RPI.
St. John's- unranked & #56 (kenpom): blew out Fordham. Huge huge game vs #2 Syracuse this Saturday. Win that and I think SJU will join Nova next week. Lose and no chance of being ranked.
Villanova- #10 (AP) & #5 (kenpom): another excellent week and cracked the top 10. Win one of the last three games before conference play (only really tough one will be @ Syracuse (#2)) and they'll remain ranked. Beat LaSalle this Saturday and they're a lock to be ranked heading into BE play.
Xavier- unranked & #65 (kenpom): were #44 in the AP last week. Poor showing this past week even though they won in OT. I don't think they'll be ranked even if they win out, but they'll get some votes. Big game vs Cincy this week.

Best case scenario for the start of BE play: Nova, SJU, Georgetown ranked. Butler, Creighton, Providence, Xavier ranked or getting some votes.
Worst case scenario: Nova losses three straight and are knocked out. Nobody else steps up and no teams are ranked. (extremely unlikely)
Most likely scenario: Nova remains ranked and one other team gets ranked.

[Lavinwood]

Weekly Update:

Remember, I am just talking about what it would take to be ranked before conference play.

Butler- unranked & #57 (kenpom): basically the same place as last week, but took care of business. Big upcoming game vs. Purdue. They won't be ranked after beating Purdue, but I think they would get some votes.Only two games after that and not good opponents.
Creighton- #38 (AP) & #18 (kenpom): went down three spots in the AP, but it was actually a pretty good week after a bad week prior. Kenpom ranking improved by 7. Even of they win the next three, it's possible they won't be ranked (since their spot actually decreased this week). The Cal game is pretty important. Regardless, they will continue getting votes as long as they keep winning and they have a great Kenpom.
DePaul- unranked & #145 (kenpom): big drop in Kenpom and it's impossible for them to be ranked before conference play anyways.
Georgetown- unranked & #25 (kenpom): one opportunity to be ranked and it's in two weeks @ Kansas (#13). And win the other two very winnable games.
Marquette- unranked & #45 (kenpom): they won't be ranked. They had a chance at Wisconsin and lost. Still in decent shape Kenpom wise, which ironically increased a couple spots even after the loss.
Providence- unranked & #61 (kenpom): lucky (but good) win at RI this week, only by one. Win the next two very winnable games and then win @mass (22) and I think they'll get some votes.
Seton Hall- unranked & #127 (kenpom): good week with that win @ Rutgers. Won't be ranked, but just need to keep winning and improving RPI.
St. John's- unranked & #56 (kenpom): blew out Fordham. Huge huge game vs #2 Syracuse this Saturday. Win that and I think SJU will join Nova next week. Lose and no chance of being ranked.
Villanova- #10 (AP) & #5 (kenpom): another excellent week and cracked the top 10. Win one of the last three games before conference play (only really tough one will be @ Syracuse (#2)) and they'll remain ranked. Beat LaSalle this Saturday and they're a lock to be ranked heading into BE play.
Xavier- unranked & #65 (kenpom): were #44 in the AP last week. Poor showing this past week even though they won in OT. I don't think they'll be ranked even if they win out, but they'll get some votes. Big game vs Cincy this week.

Best case scenario for the start of BE play: Nova, SJU, Georgetown ranked. Butler, Creighton, Providence, Xavier ranked or getting some votes.
Worst case scenario: Nova losses three straight and are knocked out. Nobody else steps up and no teams are ranked. (extremely unlikely)
Most likely scenario: Nova remains ranked and one other team gets ranked.

Just to see SJ ranked would give me chills. That's how rare it is. To the fans of teams that are consistently ranked, count your blessings. What some take for granted is a dream to other fans. I feel like any time we are close to being ranked or play a big time opponent that would almost definitely thrust us in the top 25, we fail to do it. If we lose to Cuse the only other way for SJ to get ranked at all this year is to beat Nova to get their first ranked win, and go nearly undefeated in the conference or at worst 1 loss.

[stever20]

I don't think your new likely scenario is all that likely. I think the only teams that have a chance to be ranked going into conference play are St John's or Georgetown- but they would have to beat Syracuse or Kansas to do so. Creighton I don't think has a shot quite frankly before conference play- their schedule just isn't that good.

Also- for Nova- if they lose 1 OOC game plus Cuse- they won't be ranked. If they win both their other games, they'll be ranked.

[stever20]

I think Georgetown's road to getting ranked got harder tonight with Kansas losing. Especially if Kansas loses to New Mexico on Saturday, I don't think we get ranked if we beat them guaranteed at all- we may, but not a lock at all any longer. Hell, if Kansas loses this Saturday, Kansas may not be ranked next week themselves.

[adoraz11]

as for Nova- if they lose 1 OOC game plus Cuse- they won't be ranked. If they win both their other games, they'll be ranked.

Sorry but you're wrong. Losing to #2 Syracuse on the road with only one other loss? Doesn't make sense. Look at Kansas, they had 2 losses as of last week and are still comfortably ranked at 13. Other teams have at least two losses and are still ranked.

[stever20]

as for Nova- if they lose 1 OOC game plus Cuse- they won't be ranked. If they win both their other games, they'll be ranked.

Sorry but you're wrong. Losing to #2 Syracuse on the road with only one other loss? Doesn't make sense. Look at Kansas, they had 2 losses as of last week and are still comfortably ranked at 13. Other teams have at least two losses and are still ranked.

The problem is, first off, Kansas started a lot higher. Also, the losses Kansas has taken- Nova, Colorado, and now Florida- all good teams. If nova loses a 2nd game- it's either LaSalle or Rider. Neither one viewed all that great by any stretch.

[adoraz11]

as for Nova- if they lose 1 OOC game plus Cuse- they won't be ranked. If they win both their other games, they'll be ranked.

Sorry but you're wrong. Losing to #2 Syracuse on the road with only one other loss? Doesn't make sense. Look at Kansas, they had 2 losses as of last week and are still comfortably ranked at 13. Other teams have at least two losses and are still ranked.

The problem is, first off, Kansas started a lot higher. Also, the losses Kansas has taken- Nova, Colorado, and now Florida- all good teams. If nova loses a 2nd game- it's either LaSalle or Rider. Neither one viewed all that great by any stretch.

Okay true and I knew you'd mention this, but a loss to number two Syracuse on the road is easily a much better loss than either Kansas loss. Kansas is still 13. Not 23 or 24. They dropped 11 places after two losses. Unc, Florida, Kentucky, all two losses and ranked from 10 to 18. Some of those losses like Belmont aren't pretty. Nova is 10 now, they can take on two losses and remain ranked.

Edit: Duke is yet another team with two losses and ranked #8!

[adoraz11]

And one last thing, in this hypothetical scenario, we are talking three weeks from now after the Cuse game. At that point, a lot of teams won't be asking whether 2 losses is enough but rather 3 or 4 (such as Kansas who picked up a third loss this week).

La Salle and Rider aren't great teams but they're definitely not terrible. They're average or slightly above (mid 100 range). And #2 Cuse on the road is the best loss you can possibly hope for.

[stever20]

My thinking is this- Nova loses to LaSalle this week. They fall down to around 20. Then the loss to Cuse, and they'll be down around 25. I'd say Nova would if they lost 2 games be in that 24-28 range.

Oh, and that Belmont game- Belmont isn't a bad loss by any stretch. They are a perennial NCAA team and will be a top 100 game. The UAB loss for UNC is worse than that.

[adoraz11]

My thinking is this- Nova loses to LaSalle this week. They fall down to around 20. Then the loss to Cuse, and they'll be down around 25. I'd say Nova would if they lost 2 games be in that 24-28 range.

Oh, and that Belmont game- Belmont isn't a bad loss by any stretch. They are a perennial NCAA team and will be a top 100 game. The UAB loss for UNC is worse than that.

Makes sense and not impossible I'd just be pretty surprised.

Here's my thinking:

Lose a game first week. Drop 8 spots. 18
Win a game the next week. Pick up a spot maybe by default. 17
Lose @ Cuse. Lose 2-3 spots. 19/20

Look at a team that lost last week, Florida lost at uconn and dropped 4 spots. A cuse loss should have a little less impact than uconn loss.

Vcu right now is 31 with hardly anything impressive win wise and two losses to unranked teams. Nova shouldn't be anywhere near them.

It comes down to voting and it's impossible to know for sure. One thing I'm almost positive about is they'll be a top 25 team in terms of computer ranking easily as long as they don't get blown out both games.