Can we all stop looking into our crystal balls for 5 minutes

[Bill Marsh]

Playing above themselves fine. But 2 things. 1st off, the other teams aren't that much ahead of Butler. 2nd off, because of 1st off, the law of averages shows that Butler will get at least 2-3 wins that you are saying they wouldn't.
Ok so Butler was 8th. Who would be the 7th that would go 0-12 vs everyone else.

Good point. Probably no one unless devastating injury or other loss. But someone could certainly go 8-10 in the 7th spot without doing much damage to the records of those above them. Make #1 15-3 and #3 13-5 and nothing changes very much.

There are certainly teams in any given season who seem to be snake bit with a whole string of losses of 5 points or less. Such a streak can develop a momentum of its own. Things happen. All I'm saying is that regardless of the likelihood, such things do happen and they're not all that much out of the ordinary. If it were to transpire that way, your numbers would change. I'm just in the wait & see camp.

The thing is though, if #7 and 8 win games in your scenario against top 6 teams- it makes sense the teams that they would most likely beat would be 5 and 6.

Steve, it happens all the time. It has nothing to do with what makes sense. Two years ago a Providence team that finished 15th, 4-14 in conference play blew out a Louisville team by 31 on its way to the Final Four despite the fact that PC was otherwise in the midst of a long losing streak. The year before, also 4-14 and finishing 14th, they beat Villanova, then ranked #8 and PC again in the midst of a long losing streak.

[stever20]

And Providence also beat UConn. There's a reason why teams are #1-2 and why teams are #5-6. Odds are much better if a team 7 or 8 is going to win a game against top 6, it's going to be against 5 or 6. Much Better. Also, your scenario in any 10 team conference never happens.

Just look at the last 6 years.... by my count 44 10 team conferences playing round robins....
4- 12-7 times 11-14 times 10-15 times 9-8 times
5- 12-0 times 11-8 times 10-13 times 9-17 times 8-6 times
6- 12-0 times 11-1 time 10-4 times 9-21 times 8-15 times 7-3 times

So, the most any 4-6 seed has won in the last 6 years was 12 games. Only 21 times did 5 seed have a winning record, and only 5 times did a 6 seed have a winning record. 18 times did a 6 seed have a losing record.

(oh and you say by my chart 1 time a 6 seed had 11 wins. True. But, not on the chart but there was also a time where a team went 9-9 and finished 3rd).

So your 4 seed hasn't happened, 5 seed only happened 8 times, and 6 seed only 5 times. Also- for 7 seeds- 6 times they won at least 9 games(with a 10 1 year). Only 4 times did they win 6 or fewer games.

Oh and 3 years ago, when they beat Nova, they had just beaten Louisville the game before. Nova was at the start of their epic collapse that year.

[Bill Marsh]

And Providence also beat UConn. There's a reason why teams are #1-2 and why teams are #5-6. Odds are much better if a team 7 or 8 is going to win a game against top 6, it's going to be against 5 or 6. Much Better. Also, your scenario in any 10 team conference never happens.

Just look at the last 6 years.... by my count 44 10 team conferences playing round robins....
4- 12-7 times 11-14 times 10-15 times 9-8 times
5- 12-0 times 11-8 times 10-13 times 9-17 times 8-6 times
6- 12-0 times 11-1 time 10-4 times 9-21 times 8-15 times 7-3 times

So, the most any 4-6 seed has won in the last 6 years was 12 games. Only 21 times did 5 seed have a winning record, and only 5 times did a 6 seed have a winning record. 18 times did a 6 seed have a losing record.

(oh and you say by my chart 1 time a 6 seed had 11 wins. True. But, not on the chart but there was also a time where a team went 9-9 and finished 3rd).

So your 4 seed hasn't happened, 5 seed only happened 8 times, and 6 seed only 5 times. Also- for 7 seeds- 6 times they won at least 9 games(with a 10 1 year). Only 4 times did they win 6 or fewer games.

Oh and 3 years ago, when they beat Nova, they had just beaten Louisville the game before. Nova was at the start of their epic collapse that year.

So,you gree that it does happen sometimes even in your small sample of just a few years?

[stever20]

And Providence also beat UConn. There's a reason why teams are #1-2 and why teams are #5-6. Odds are much better if a team 7 or 8 is going to win a game against top 6, it's going to be against 5 or 6. Much Better. Also, your scenario in any 10 team conference never happens.

Just look at the last 6 years.... by my count 44 10 team conferences playing round robins....
4- 12-7 times 11-14 times 10-15 times 9-8 times
5- 12-0 times 11-8 times 10-13 times 9-17 times 8-6 times
6- 12-0 times 11-1 time 10-4 times 9-21 times 8-15 times 7-3 times

So, the most any 4-6 seed has won in the last 6 years was 12 games. Only 21 times did 5 seed have a winning record, and only 5 times did a 6 seed have a winning record. 18 times did a 6 seed have a losing record.

(oh and you say by my chart 1 time a 6 seed had 11 wins. True. But, not on the chart but there was also a time where a team went 9-9 and finished 3rd).

So your 4 seed hasn't happened, 5 seed only happened 8 times, and 6 seed only 5 times. Also- for 7 seeds- 6 times they won at least 9 games(with a 10 1 year). Only 4 times did they win 6 or fewer games.

Oh and 3 years ago, when they beat Nova, they had just beaten Louisville the game before. Nova was at the start of their epic collapse that year.

So,you gree that it does happen sometimes even in your small sample of just a few years?

It can, but it's not likely.

let's put it this way-
4 seed- 9/44 teams finished 9-9
5 seed- 23/44 teams finished 9-9 or worse
6 seed- 39/44 teams finished 9-9 or worse- 18 times losing record, 5 times winning record
(with 1 time 3 seed finished 9-9)

You would agree that it's not likely that the 5th place team will have more than 10 wins, and the 6th place team will be lucky to finish with a winning record. Recent history in 10 team leagues would seem to indicate that.

[Bill Marsh]

And Providence also beat UConn. There's a reason why teams are #1-2 and why teams are #5-6. Odds are much better if a team 7 or 8 is going to win a game against top 6, it's going to be against 5 or 6. Much Better. Also, your scenario in any 10 team conference never happens.

Just look at the last 6 years.... by my count 44 10 team conferences playing round robins....
4- 12-7 times 11-14 times 10-15 times 9-8 times
5- 12-0 times 11-8 times 10-13 times 9-17 times 8-6 times
6- 12-0 times 11-1 time 10-4 times 9-21 times 8-15 times 7-3 times

So, the most any 4-6 seed has won in the last 6 years was 12 games. Only 21 times did 5 seed have a winning record, and only 5 times did a 6 seed have a winning record. 18 times did a 6 seed have a losing record.

(oh and you say by my chart 1 time a 6 seed had 11 wins. True. But, not on the chart but there was also a time where a team went 9-9 and finished 3rd).

So your 4 seed hasn't happened, 5 seed only happened 8 times, and 6 seed only 5 times. Also- for 7 seeds- 6 times they won at least 9 games(with a 10 1 year). Only 4 times did they win 6 or fewer games.

Oh and 3 years ago, when they beat Nova, they had just beaten Louisville the game before. Nova was at the start of their epic collapse that year.

So,you gree that it does happen sometimes even in your small sample of just a few years?

It can, but it's not likely.

let's put it this way-
4 seed- 9/44 teams finished 9-9
5 seed- 23/44 teams finished 9-9 or worse
6 seed- 39/44 teams finished 9-9 or worse- 18 times losing record, 5 times winning record
(with 1 time 3 seed finished 9-9)

You would agree that it's not likely that the 5th place team will have more than 10 wins, and the 6th place team will be lucky to finish with a winning record. Recent history in 10 team leagues would seem to indicate that.

Yes, I agree. It's not likely. My point was that it's possible and until things play out, we have to allow even for the less likely possibilities.

[stever20]

to me the data is interesting. I guess I would have thought there would have been a time or two where the top 4 would have all been at 13-5 or 14-4. But I guess part of that is there are still 6 games for each of the top 4 teams against each other- and odds are whoever is 4th isn't winning many against top 3- and also, odds are pretty good that they won't win all 12 against 5-10...

I guess I would have thought the number of times a 4th place team was only 9-9 would be a lot lower than 8/44- or 18%. And a year recently where a 3rd place team was 9-9- that's remarkable. I think with DePaul and Seton Hall- that won't be an issue!

[Bill Marsh]

to me the data is interesting. I guess I would have thought there would have been a time or two where the top 4 would have all been at 13-5 or 14-4. But I guess part of that is there are still 6 games for each of the top 4 teams against each other- and odds are whoever is 4th isn't winning many against top 3- and also, odds are pretty good that they won't win all 12 against 5-10...

I guess I would have thought the number of times a 4th place team was only 9-9 would be a lot lower than 8/44- or 18%. And a year recently where a 3rd place team was 9-9- that's remarkable. I think with DePaul and Seton Hall- that won't be an issue!

Thanks for all of your number crunching and research, Steve. I greatly appreciate the time you put into it. I enjoy reading it and find it very informative - even when I don't have anything to say in reply.

Keep up the good work!