Can we all stop looking into our crystal balls for 5 minutes

[TheHall]

I think conference strength is really only a regular season thing. I think Post season is only about individual teams. I don't care about any BE teams once the post season comes around. The only reason to root for your conference mates to do well is during the season so that by beating them you get a good seed in the tournament. No point in bragging about how well your conference did in the tournament. You only brag about how your team did. Conference strength is just a means to get a high seed. That is my point.

I have no problem with that point, but you chose to jump into a conversation about how to determine conference pecking order??? I do think conference pride makes plenty of sense when conference mates are playing OOC games in Nov or March, though. Good pub for your conference never hurts recruiting, bad pub usually does (AAC).

[stever20]

Also, the thing I would say about including the A10 in my conference comparisons....

If they are a clear #8 and we are a clear #3- how does that diminish us at all? If we're a top 4-5 conference, that's power. Them at #8 isn't a power conference.

Also, including the A10 is actually really helping us out vs the other power conferences
BE 5-1
B10 3-1
AAC 3-1
B12 2-0
SEC 1-1
ACC 4-5
P12 1-2

So by including them, we gain 2.5 games on the ACC.

[Bill Marsh]

Just want to know Bill- Do you really believe in your mind at all that the 8-10 teams won't win a single game against top 7 teams? Or #7 won't win a single game against top 6 teams? Both of those statements would be necessary to accomidate what you have posted. So who of St John's, Providence, Marquette, Butler, Xavier is in 8th and 0-14 vs top 7 teams? Or who of those is #7 and 0-12 vs top 6 teams? That's just not realistic- not with this group of teams that we have.

Yes, I think it's very possible. Seron Hall is evaporating before our eyes. DePaul has potential, but they could certainly fall in that category. A key injury or two, or an academic suspension, could decimate someone else's prospects. We've certainly seen teams in the past compete, but have the bad luck to go through a series of close losses. Even if a team is pretty good, they can have a run of bad luck.

I'm not saying this will happen, just that it could happen. And if it does, it will change all the numbers.

[Bill Marsh]

The thing is, a lot of times, November and December are the deciding factors. We may not know which team it is, but like let's say GW turns out to be a 20 win team and makes the tournament. Marquette beating them could be the difference in getting in or not getting in. Or Vandy does a lot better than projected. That makes a difference for Butler and Providence. everything that we're seeing indicates that we're going to have a lot of bubble teams. Been that way since the start of the season. Even the numbers I posted- for most teams just 1-2 more wins and it changes the RPI considerably. Like Butler- 1 more win and their RPI goes from a projected 69 up to a projected 57. If you are at 57, you have a really good chance to make the tourney(especially with even 1 win in the BET). Every game matters. I think folks are discounting as a whole the impact of the conference OOC schedule in determining how many bids you get as a conference. These next 3 weeks have more to do in a lot of ways what our maximum potential is for tourney bids than anything we do in Jan/Feb.

The heck with the next 3 weeks you've been talking this way since the exhibition games. So no need to try to elaborate/pontificate, you've already made it clear that tracking stats is more enjoyable for you than the games themselves. Remember you called for the permanent benching Joshua Smith by game 4, and that was after a game you didn't even watch. Some of us want to smell the roses during this inaugural season, not just talk about our teams like stock futures all season.

And you act like OOC play is pretty much meaningless.. OOC means a lot now in the tournament- way more than it used to. For one- while before teams would be playing 27-28 games, teams now play 31 games. So instead of like 10-11 OOC games, you get 12-13.

All I said for Smith was that the Hoyas were focusing way too much on him- that they were playing better when he was out of the game. You look at the numbers and he's one of the worst defensive players on the team.

Boy, you can say that again! I was wondering if anyone else noticed that. It's like he invented the matador defense. JT III is really going to have to get him shaped up. For a soft player like this to be playing for the program that invented the modern physical style of defensive play is incongruous.

[Bill Marsh]

The thing is, we'll know a lot more by Dec 30th. Teams will generally know what they have to do in conference play to have a shot. The thing is- good teams sometimes don't get bids because they screwed up so much OOC- see UVA last year. I just hear folks say we're going to get 5 bids like it's our birthright to get 5 bids. We have to earn those bids....Folks are just acting like the way to get bids is to contort the conference in conference play. It's so much easier if you take care of business in OOC play. Then you have so much less pressure on you.

I think you've got a good point with your "birthright" comment. The conference isn't going to get bids just because they're "The Big East" if they don't play like it. Those bids have to be earned.

[stever20]

Just want to know Bill- Do you really believe in your mind at all that the 8-10 teams won't win a single game against top 7 teams? Or #7 won't win a single game against top 6 teams? Both of those statements would be necessary to accomidate what you have posted. So who of St John's, Providence, Marquette, Butler, Xavier is in 8th and 0-14 vs top 7 teams? Or who of those is #7 and 0-12 vs top 6 teams? That's just not realistic- not with this group of teams that we have.

Yes, I think it's very possible. Seron Hall is evaporating before our eyes. DePaul has potential, but they could certainly fall in that category. A key injury or two, or an academic suspension, could decimate someone else's prospects. We've certainly seen teams in the past compete, but have the bad luck to go through a series of close losses. Even if a team is pretty good, they can have a run of bad luck.

I'm not saying this will happen, just that it could happen. And if it does, it will change all the numbers.

Maybe for 9 and 10. But absolutely nothing we've seen would add 2 teams to DePaul and Seton Hall(which I don't necessarily agree with)- that wouldn't beat a top 7 team. That just isn't realistic whatsoever. It's possible, in the same way it's possible I might win the lottery.

[Bill Marsh]

Just want to know Bill- Do you really believe in your mind at all that the 8-10 teams won't win a single game against top 7 teams? Or #7 won't win a single game against top 6 teams? Both of those statements would be necessary to accomidate what you have posted. So who of St John's, Providence, Marquette, Butler, Xavier is in 8th and 0-14 vs top 7 teams? Or who of those is #7 and 0-12 vs top 6 teams? That's just not realistic- not with this group of teams that we have.

Yes, I think it's very possible. Seron Hall is evaporating before our eyes. DePaul has potential, but they could certainly fall in that category. A key injury or two, or an academic suspension, could decimate someone else's prospects. We've certainly seen teams in the past compete, but have the bad luck to go through a series of close losses. Even if a team is pretty good, they can have a run of bad luck.

I'm not saying this will happen, just that it could happen. And if it does, it will change all the numbers.

Maybe for 9 and 10. But absolutely nothing we've seen would add 2 teams to DePaul and Seton Hall(which I don't necessarily agree with)- that wouldn't beat a top 7 team. That just isn't realistic whatsoever. It's possible, in the same way it's possible I might win the lottery.

Not key injuries or academic suspensions?

Frankly, Butler has been playing way above their talent level. I have all the respect in the world for that and am rooting for them to keep it up just because it's such a great story. But can they keep it up? Would it be any real surprise if they went on a losing steak in conference play? Do they have the depth to sustain even one more key loss?

[stever20]

Playing above themselves fine. But 2 things. 1st off, the other teams aren't that much ahead of Butler. 2nd off, because of 1st off, the law of averages shows that Butler will get at least 2-3 wins that you are saying they wouldn't.
Ok so Butler was 8th. Who would be the 7th that would go 0-12 vs everyone else.

[Bill Marsh]

Playing above themselves fine. But 2 things. 1st off, the other teams aren't that much ahead of Butler. 2nd off, because of 1st off, the law of averages shows that Butler will get at least 2-3 wins that you are saying they wouldn't.
Ok so Butler was 8th. Who would be the 7th that would go 0-12 vs everyone else.

Good point. Probably no one unless devastating injury or other loss. But someone could certainly go 8-10 in the 7th spot without doing much damage to the records of those above them. Make #1 15-3 and #3 13-5 and nothing changes very much.

There are certainly teams in any given season who seem to be snake bit with a whole string of losses of 5 points or less. Such a streak can develop a momentum of its own. Things happen. All I'm saying is that regardless of the likelihood, such things do happen and they're not all that much out of the ordinary. If it were to transpire that way, your numbers would change. I'm just in the wait & see camp.

[stever20]

Playing above themselves fine. But 2 things. 1st off, the other teams aren't that much ahead of Butler. 2nd off, because of 1st off, the law of averages shows that Butler will get at least 2-3 wins that you are saying they wouldn't.
Ok so Butler was 8th. Who would be the 7th that would go 0-12 vs everyone else.

Good point. Probably no one unless devastating injury or other loss. But someone could certainly go 8-10 in the 7th spot without doing much damage to the records of those above them. Make #1 15-3 and #3 13-5 and nothing changes very much.

There are certainly teams in any given season who seem to be snake bit with a whole string of losses of 5 points or less. Such a streak can develop a momentum of its own. Things happen. All I'm saying is that regardless of the likelihood, such things do happen and they're not all that much out of the ordinary. If it were to transpire that way, your numbers would change. I'm just in the wait & see camp.

The thing is though, if #7 and 8 win games in your scenario against top 6 teams- it makes sense the teams that they would most likely beat would be 5 and 6.