BIG EAST vs. POWER CONFERENCES

[Bill Marsh]

The Mountain West figured out the formula for getting teams to the tournament:

1. Don't schedule anyone youn can't beat
2. Schedule as many teams in the top 100 as possible that you can beat.
3. Don't schedule anyone ranked below 200, or even 150 if possible.
4. Win as many games as possible because every game matters.

It's much the same scheduling approach that the Missouri Valley teams got a bunch of teams in a while ago (2006?).

RPI is not a power rating. It is calculateddifferently with emphasis on wins and losses and using a formula to factor in SOS. Power ratings use margin of victory and don't worry about SOS, allowing the point spread to account for that. Sagarin does both and then averages the two for his final rating, creating a compromise between the two, but publishes the results for both. So, his list provides a good comparison of the two. No one who wants to pick games uses RPI. Power ratings are much more reliable. Sagarin even calls his power rating (not the RPI or composite) the predictive rating. Power ratings are much more reliable.

I go through all of that because the committee used to restrict itself to RPI. Everything I read now says that they have a ton of data and don't restrict themselves to RPI, so I assume that they also look at power ratings. However, if you look at last year's tournament selections, it matches the RPI almost - but not quite - to a"T".

I know that the committee also looks closely at quality wins and bad losses - the first being highly desirable and the second to be avoided like the plague. Hence, the Mountain West formula listed above.

Taking the Marquette example, the loss to Ohio State hurts them because it is a missed opportunity for a quality win. A Mountain wEst team that doesn't schedule anyone in the top ten, but has a rash of wins against teams in the top 100 - even if none of them are ranked higher than 50 - will look great by comparison. Because it will have a lot do quality wins even if they are teams of lesser quality, but still quality.

A loss to Ohio State will not hurt Marquette to badly on a power rating because their high ranking will compensate for the point spread to some degree. But it will hurt RPI because a loss is still a loss, SOS will mitigate to some extent, but there's no way to gain ground on RPI with a "good loss" whereas you can gain ground on a power rating with a 2-point loss to a top ten team.

THe bigger proble for Marquette in the Ohio State loss based on what I read (I didn't see the game), is that their PG play was shaky. If The Ohio State loss was more than a bad day and exposed the loss of Cadougan and the overall losses of experience on the perimeter as being more significant than people realized, then other teams will pick up on this and they will have a lot of work to do. Teamrankings.com doesn't even include them in their tournament field in their early projections. Not everyone is in agreement that they are a no brainer for the tournament. If they are a bubble team, then every loss - including this one - is a missed opportunity to build their resume.

OOC games are critical for any conference because they are the only yard stick by which to compare the strength of different conferences and therefore to place value on wins and losses in conference.

[TheHall]

we don't know if the Marquette or Georgetown games would have an impact because we don't know where they will finish. I definitely believe that a good number of our teams will be on the bubble. I think conference play is going to be a ton of 10-8 or 9-9 teams. So, yes OOC means a whole hell of a lot. You go 9-9 in conference play and 8-5 OOC- that's 17-14 and that's generally speaking not going to get you in the tourney. Even if you go 10-3 OOC, if its a weak OOC schedule- that's only 19-12.

And you are just kidding yourself if you think seeding doesn't matter. There is a HUGE difference between a 3 seed and a 5 seed. There is a huge difference between a 6 seed and a 8 seed.
3 seed- rd 1 vs 14 seed 99-17. rd 2 vs 6 seed 44-37 vs 11 seed 31-12 total 75-49
5 seed rd 1 vs 12 seed 92-44 rd 2 vs 4 seed 37-46 vs 13 seed 11-3 total 48-49

6 seed rd 1 vs 11 seed 91-45 rd 2 vs 3 seed 37-44 vs 14 seed 12-2 total 49-46
7 seed rd 1 vs 10 seed 84-56 rd 2 vs 2 seed 21-61 vs 15 seed 2-1 total 23-62
8 seed rd 1 vs 9 seed 72-68 rd 2 vs 1 seed 14-60

so yes when you are really parsing it, the seed matters big time. You are playing the 1/2 seed compared to playing the 3 seed- that's huge.

Read my post, I never said seeding doesn't matter. This thread is about how the BE performs against the other POWER conferences in the OOC, not how we perform in the NCAAT. You're just over the top with the fear of not performing well in the beginning of the season being a death sentence for the top teams in this conference. No power conference team views the OOC as that important for GETTING A BID except bubble teams (which I hope SHU is at least) and mid-majors. If only four teams make the tourny from the BE none of them will likely be bubble teams. Those teams will be locks from a perceived weak conference. IMO if the BE gets a bubble team or two in it will be for bids 5,6 or maybe even 7.

[Bill Marsh]

Projected NCAA Tournament seedlings by various prognosticators:

USA Today:

4 seed - Marquette
5 seed - Creighton
7 seed - Georgetown
8 seed - St. John's
9 seed - Villanova

TeamRankings.com:

6 seed - Villanova
6 seed - Creighton
7 seed - Georgetown
10 seed - Xavier
11 seed - Providence

College Sports Madness:

3 seed - Marquette
7 seed - Villanova
8 seed - Creighton
9 seed - Georgetown

[redmen9194]

Butler represents and continues the Big East dominance over the SEC beating Vandy.

vs. ACC: 1-0
vs. Big 10: 0-2
vs. Pac-12: 0-1
vs. Big XII: 0-0
vs. SEC: 2-0
vs. AAC: 0-0

OVERALL: 3-3

Coming up we have another try by Vandy:

11/22: Vanderbilt vs. Providence
11/22: Oklahoma vs. Seton Hall

[78 friar]

Providence may be getting some reinforcements for this game with Vandy and the tournament itself. Kris Dunn returned the other night to play 21 minutes . We just got word that our 2 suspended freshmen who were not allowed to even be in the building for our first 3 games have made the trip with the team. No definitive answer as to whether they'll play but hopefully just being allowed to travel with the team is a step in the right direction for them.

[stever20]

we don't know if the Marquette or Georgetown games would have an impact because we don't know where they will finish. I definitely believe that a good number of our teams will be on the bubble. I think conference play is going to be a ton of 10-8 or 9-9 teams. So, yes OOC means a whole hell of a lot. You go 9-9 in conference play and 8-5 OOC- that's 17-14 and that's generally speaking not going to get you in the tourney. Even if you go 10-3 OOC, if its a weak OOC schedule- that's only 19-12.

And you are just kidding yourself if you think seeding doesn't matter. There is a HUGE difference between a 3 seed and a 5 seed. There is a huge difference between a 6 seed and a 8 seed.
3 seed- rd 1 vs 14 seed 99-17. rd 2 vs 6 seed 44-37 vs 11 seed 31-12 total 75-49
5 seed rd 1 vs 12 seed 92-44 rd 2 vs 4 seed 37-46 vs 13 seed 11-3 total 48-49

6 seed rd 1 vs 11 seed 91-45 rd 2 vs 3 seed 37-44 vs 14 seed 12-2 total 49-46
7 seed rd 1 vs 10 seed 84-56 rd 2 vs 2 seed 21-61 vs 15 seed 2-1 total 23-62
8 seed rd 1 vs 9 seed 72-68 rd 2 vs 1 seed 14-60

so yes when you are really parsing it, the seed matters big time. You are playing the 1/2 seed compared to playing the 3 seed- that's huge.

Read my post, I never said seeding doesn't matter. This thread is about how the BE performs against the other POWER conferences in the OOC, not how we perform in the NCAAT. You're just over the top with the fear of not performing well in the beginning of the season being a death sentence for the top teams in this conference. No power conference team views the OOC as that important for GETTING A BID except bubble teams (which I hope SHU is at least) and mid-majors. If only four teams make the tourny from the BE none of them will likely be bubble teams. Those teams will be locks from a perceived weak conference. IMO if the BE gets a bubble team or two in it will be for bids 5,6 or maybe even 7.

OOC matters not only for getting bids, but also matters in seeding. If we are the 4th or 5th best league, our teams aren't going to get the great seedings.

And you look at Ken Pom's projected conference standings. He's got 4th/5th place teams at 9-9. 6-8th place teams at 8-10. If we are 4th/5th best conference- it'd be highly unlikely any of those 6-8th place teams get into the tourney-unless they had a really strong OOC period with at least 11-2 record- with quality wins in there. 4th/5th teams- that is square on the bubble-would hinge on how their OOC schedule was. That's why OOC is so important. If we do well in the OOC games, that's going to make beating each other worth that much more. If we don't do so well, beating each other won't be worth much.

[TheHall]

we don't know if the Marquette or Georgetown games would have an impact because we don't know where they will finish. I definitely believe that a good number of our teams will be on the bubble. I think conference play is going to be a ton of 10-8 or 9-9 teams. So, yes OOC means a whole hell of a lot. You go 9-9 in conference play and 8-5 OOC- that's 17-14 and that's generally speaking not going to get you in the tourney. Even if you go 10-3 OOC, if its a weak OOC schedule- that's only 19-12.

And you are just kidding yourself if you think seeding doesn't matter. There is a HUGE difference between a 3 seed and a 5 seed. There is a huge difference between a 6 seed and a 8 seed.
3 seed- rd 1 vs 14 seed 99-17. rd 2 vs 6 seed 44-37 vs 11 seed 31-12 total 75-49
5 seed rd 1 vs 12 seed 92-44 rd 2 vs 4 seed 37-46 vs 13 seed 11-3 total 48-49

6 seed rd 1 vs 11 seed 91-45 rd 2 vs 3 seed 37-44 vs 14 seed 12-2 total 49-46
7 seed rd 1 vs 10 seed 84-56 rd 2 vs 2 seed 21-61 vs 15 seed 2-1 total 23-62
8 seed rd 1 vs 9 seed 72-68 rd 2 vs 1 seed 14-60

so yes when you are really parsing it, the seed matters big time. You are playing the 1/2 seed compared to playing the 3 seed- that's huge.

Read my post, I never said seeding doesn't matter. This thread is about how the BE performs against the other POWER conferences in the OOC, not how we perform in the NCAAT. You're just over the top with the fear of not performing well in the beginning of the season being a death sentence for the top teams in this conference. No power conference team views the OOC as that important for GETTING A BID except bubble teams (which I hope SHU is at least) and mid-majors. If only four teams make the tourny from the BE none of them will likely be bubble teams. Those teams will be locks from a perceived weak conference. IMO if the BE gets a bubble team or two in it will be for bids 5,6 or maybe even 7.

OOC matters not only for getting bids, but also matters in seeding. If we are the 4th or 5th best league, our teams aren't going to get the great seedings.

And you look at Ken Pom's projected conference standings. He's got 4th/5th place teams at 9-9. 6-8th place teams at 8-10. If we are 4th/5th best conference- it'd be highly unlikely any of those 6-8th place teams get into the tourney-unless they had a really strong OOC period with at least 11-2 record- with quality wins in there. 4th/5th teams- that is square on the bubble-would hinge on how their OOC schedule was. That's why OOC is so important. If we do well in the OOC games, that's going to make beating each other worth that much more. If we don't do so well, beating each other won't be worth much.

IT'S ALWAYS BETTER TO WIN. Who doesn't know this. Given a choice, yeah win them all. But my point is that every game doesn't mean the same thing to each team in the league. Do you think GU gives a crap about seeding? Has seeding done anything for them lately? MU, VU & CU I'm sure care about seeding. SJU, PC, SHU, X, DU, & BU just want bids. OOC will be a part of that but you make it seem like the season is over if we don't do great in Nov & Dec. The Selection Committee is smarter than just saying how well teams were playing 4-5 mos before the NCAAT is the end-all. BE teams will be playing meaningful games in-conference too.

[stever20]

A few things-
1- the committee absolutely looks at your performance OOC. If you didn't play anyone, you better have a big record to have a chance.
2- OOC matters in you have to have a certain record bare minimum. I'm sorry but if you're 17-14 you aren't making the tourney. Last year, no team with fewer than 20 wins made the tourney at large. So what does that mean? If you go 9-9 in conference games(which is that 4-7 range possibly)- you need to have gone 11-2 OOC. (or 11-4 with a BET win). If a team only goes 8-5 OOC, they would have to go 12-6 in conference play to get to 20 wins. Good luck there with the parity in this conference. The committee has changed a lot in this regard- years back you would see a 16-14 team make the tourney. Those days appear to be over. Part of that is the line between majors/mid majors has evaporated for the most part- so we see more mid-majors making the tourney than ever before.
3- OOC matters as a league because it matters if you are playing a team ranked 20th or a team ranked 30th.
4- yes I'm pretty sure that Georgetown gives a crap about seeding- even with the last few years. The records as you go down in seeds go down- and at a certain level considerably. I mean, the difference between a 6 and 7 seed and 8 seed- huge. 49 vs 23 vs 14. Some seeds, there isn't that much of a difference- like 4 vs 5. But like 3 vs 4- big one.

I give you Virginia as a prime example. Last year they went 11-7 in conference play finishing 5th and had 23 wins overall.. So they were playing well at the end of the season. But they missed the tourney because of November and December. The selection committee does look at November and December quite a bit. For one- it's when they can see teams on a neutral site vs other quality teams. Also, head to head happens in November/December- if you beat someone head to head- it definitely matters come March when both are on the bubble.

[TheHall]

A few things-
1- the committee absolutely looks at your performance OOC. If you didn't play anyone, you better have a big record to have a chance.
2- OOC matters in you have to have a certain record bare minimum. I'm sorry but if you're 17-14 you aren't making the tourney. Last year, no team with fewer than 20 wins made the tourney at large. So what does that mean? If you go 9-9 in conference games(which is that 4-7 range possibly)- you need to have gone 11-2 OOC. (or 11-4 with a BET win). If a team only goes 8-5 OOC, they would have to go 12-6 in conference play to get to 20 wins. Good luck there with the parity in this conference. The committee has changed a lot in this regard- years back you would see a 16-14 team make the tourney. Those days appear to be over. Part of that is the line between majors/mid majors has evaporated for the most part- so we see more mid-majors making the tourney than ever before.
3- OOC matters as a league because it matters if you are playing a team ranked 20th or a team ranked 30th.
4- yes I'm pretty sure that Georgetown gives a crap about seeding- even with the last few years. The records as you go down in seeds go down- and at a certain level considerably. I mean, the difference between a 6 and 7 seed and 8 seed- huge. 49 vs 23 vs 14. Some seeds, there isn't that much of a difference- like 4 vs 5. But like 3 vs 4- big one.

[b]I give you Virginia as a prime example.[/b] Last year they went 11-7 in conference play finishing 5th and had 23 wins overall.. So they were playing well at the end of the season. But they missed the tourney because of November and December. The selection committee does look at November and December quite a bit. For one- it's when they can see teams on a neutral site vs other quality teams. Also, head to head happens in November/December- if you beat someone head to head- it definitely matters come March when both are on the bubble.

That's my point. You're referring to a bubble team from last year, not the entire ACC. All season matters not just OCC. Another way to put it, do you think there will there be meaningful bball played in-conference this year?

[stever20]

A few things-
1- the committee absolutely looks at your performance OOC. If you didn't play anyone, you better have a big record to have a chance.
2- OOC matters in you have to have a certain record bare minimum. I'm sorry but if you're 17-14 you aren't making the tourney. Last year, no team with fewer than 20 wins made the tourney at large. So what does that mean? If you go 9-9 in conference games(which is that 4-7 range possibly)- you need to have gone 11-2 OOC. (or 11-4 with a BET win). If a team only goes 8-5 OOC, they would have to go 12-6 in conference play to get to 20 wins. Good luck there with the parity in this conference. The committee has changed a lot in this regard- years back you would see a 16-14 team make the tourney. Those days appear to be over. Part of that is the line between majors/mid majors has evaporated for the most part- so we see more mid-majors making the tourney than ever before.
3- OOC matters as a league because it matters if you are playing a team ranked 20th or a team ranked 30th.
4- yes I'm pretty sure that Georgetown gives a crap about seeding- even with the last few years. The records as you go down in seeds go down- and at a certain level considerably. I mean, the difference between a 6 and 7 seed and 8 seed- huge. 49 vs 23 vs 14. Some seeds, there isn't that much of a difference- like 4 vs 5. But like 3 vs 4- big one.

[b]I give you Virginia as a prime example.[/b] Last year they went 11-7 in conference play finishing 5th and had 23 wins overall.. So they were playing well at the end of the season. But they missed the tourney because of November and December. The selection committee does look at November and December quite a bit. For one- it's when they can see teams on a neutral site vs other quality teams. Also, head to head happens in November/December- if you beat someone head to head- it definitely matters come March when both are on the bubble.

That's my point. You're referring to a bubble team from last year, not the entire ACC. All season matters not just OCC. Another way to put it, do you think there will there be meaningful bball played in-conference this year?

But that's my point. If the rest of the ACC had done better OOC last year, UVA makes the tourney.

Of course there will be meaningful basketball played in conference this year. OOC play determines just how meaningful conference play is.