hoyahooligan wrote:Bill Marsh wrote:Prediction: St. John's beats Wisconsin
St. John's is in excellent position to win a first game of the season because their trip to Europe gave them a chance to get organized early and get a head start on most other teams. In addition, they have everybody back, so this is a continuation of last year, not breaking in a new bunch.
In contrast, Wisconsin has a bit of rebuilding to do. They lost 3 starters from last year's team, who were their top 3 rebounders and 2 of their top 3 scorers. They are not bringing in any recruits who are considered immediate impact players on the front line. Wiscy did not play particularly well away from the Big Ten last year (9-5), losing to every good team they played OOC. Their defense is effective at at keeping scoring down primarily because they play a deliberate, ball control style which keeps scoring down for both teams. Their on ball defense is especially effective at stifling 3-point shooting. Teams that run and teams that can score inside can be effective against them. Sounds like St. John's to me. It will be interesting to see how the new rule affects their defensive play.
Of course Wisconsin also took a foreign trip this summer (to Canada) so that kind of cancels out that advantage. I also disagree with the type of team that gives Wisconsin trouble. They lost to Ole Miss in the tourney but that was the only fast team they lost to. Almost all the other loses were to teams who's pace was in the 200s Only 2 other schools they lost to played faster than the 200s and they were both in the 100s.
Their record against fast teams last year (pace ranking higher than 100) was 3-1.
TheHall wrote:stever20 wrote:It's the bubble teams that have to worry. I mean, we're going to have a league where 5th and 6th place teams are like 10-8 or 9-9. If you only go 8-5 OOC, you better be 11-7 in conference to feel comfortable at 19-12. It's gonna be hard to go 11-7 quite frankly. That's why you have to do so well OOC.
Also- I give you as an example last year Cincy and Providence....
Cincy last year was 12-1 OOC and 9-9 in conference play. 1-1 in the BET.
Providence last year was 8-4 OOC and 9-9 in conference play. 0-1 in the BET.
Cincy got in not even as a last 4 team out.
Providence was NIT bound- and only a 4 seed to boot. If Providence had won at least 1-2 of the 4 games they lost by a total of 9 points, they probably are in the tournament. I mean, instead of being 17-14 they're 19-12. Lot different there.
I think that's what I've been saying, like potentially Prov, BU, or SHU. But reading this thread it seems like most believe the entire league has that same early pressure, like with the Hoyas. I'm like damn right I hope they beat Oregon to a bloody pulp (it'll help SHU if we beat them down later) but come on they'll be dancing in march and whatever happens from there is the madness!
Dew wrote:I think it's huge personally. Win one impressively of somehow get both and that's the lead CBB story nationally, even if its just for one news cycle. Lose both and the haters will all come out of the woodwork.
stever20 wrote:Dew wrote:I think it's huge personally. Win one impressively of somehow get both and that's the lead CBB story nationally, even if its just for one news cycle. Lose both and the haters will all come out of the woodwork.
I think realistically it's 3- adding that Providence/BC game. I think we need to win that Providence game and at worst split the other 2 games.
0-3 would be real bad.
Dew wrote:stever20 wrote:Dew wrote:I think it's huge personally. Win one impressively of somehow get both and that's the lead CBB story nationally, even if its just for one news cycle. Lose both and the haters will all come out of the woodwork.
I think realistically it's 3- adding that Providence/BC game. I think we need to win that Providence game and at worst split the other 2 games.
0-3 would be real bad.
I hope and expect PC to win, but that won't register nationally at all. Beating teams that have been ranked like Oregon and Wisconsin will.
dmac80 wrote:I agree with the others that if the BE goes 3-0 or 0-3 that will be made into a story and a big deal. We live in a world now where everything is over-hyped and over-analyzed, usually for a short period, say 24 hours, then everyone moves on to something else. The early OOC games will see a roller coaster of stories and perceptions about the BE, what;s important is as we go into league play that the majority of the league did well OOC. Then the stories will cover the teams in league play and we'll see how we end up going into the BET.
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