Conference Realignment: What Next?

[Omaha1]

Wazzu and Beavers for the win:

Judge orders that WSU and OSU will be the only two governing members of the Pac-12 board. Provides that the other 10 schools are allowed discussion and comments, but not votes.

[Xudash]

Wazzu and Beavers for the win:

Judge orders that WSU and OSU will be the only two governing members of the Pac-12 board. Provides that the other 10 schools are allowed discussion and comments, but not votes.

No doubt the decision is beneficial to those two schools, but it still seems like more of a Pyrrhic victory.

[Vill]

There will be another round of realignment coming soon, particularly after Florida State and the ACC got shut out of the CFP. It's an extreme long shot, but there are twitter rumblings about the Big 12 separating out football and basketball and adding several basketball only schools. Gonzaga has long been rumored, but so have Nova and St. John's. It sounds like they've also kicked the tires on Creighton due to geographic location. Wondered if anyone else has heard any rumblings?

[GoldenWarrior11]

There will be another round of realignment coming soon, particularly after Florida State and the ACC got shut out of the CFP. It's an extreme long shot, but there are twitter rumblings about the Big 12 separating out football and basketball and adding several basketball only schools. Gonzaga has long been rumored, but so have Nova and St. John's. It sounds like they've also kicked the tires on Creighton due to geographic location. Wondered if anyone else has heard any rumblings?

The money and demand from the network(s), for any move, needs to be there in order to make sense. FOX and ESPN, since they both split the Big 12, would need to pay more money for each of the additions (and those additions would also need to provide that value in return to a conference). At some point, more so in basketball than in football, you hit diminished returns with too many additions. Throw in the history behind it (the C7 leaving football in order to prioritize basketball) and I struggle seeing such a move take place.

Don't forget the B12 Presidents and ADs didn't have majority votes in adding Gonzaga. This is all being driven by Yormark, who could very well be positioning to replace Val down the road. He craves NYC attention and market. That just will never happen in the B12.

[Xudash]

There will be another round of realignment coming soon, particularly after Florida State and the ACC got shut out of the CFP. It's an extreme long shot, but there are twitter rumblings about the Big 12 separating out football and basketball and adding several basketball only schools. Gonzaga has long been rumored, but so have Nova and St. John's. It sounds like they've also kicked the tires on Creighton due to geographic location. Wondered if anyone else has heard any rumblings?

The money and demand from the network(s), for any move, needs to be there in order to make sense. FOX and ESPN, since they both split the Big 12, would need to pay more money for each of the additions (and those additions would also need to provide that value in return to a conference). At some point, more so in basketball than in football, you hit diminished returns with too many additions. Throw in the history behind it (the C7 leaving football in order to prioritize basketball) and I struggle seeing such a move take place.

Don't forget the B12 Presidents and ADs didn't have majority votes in adding Gonzaga. This is all being driven by Yormark, who could very well be positioning to replace Val down the road. He craves NYC attention and market. That just will never happen in the B12.

That makes sense. I don't think it's any surprise that we held at 10 programs from the BE reboot until we bumped up to 11 when UCONN came "home". Your point about diminished returns, especially for basketball is spot on. Never say never perhaps, but it makes me think that Gonzaga to the Big East would have happened by now if it made sense and were meant to happen.

All this speaks to conference size in terms of what may be optimal or may be perceived to be necessary. Assuming the BE is able to average 6 teams into the NCAAT per year, we would be placing roughly 55% of the conference in the tournament.

Now consider the B1G, SEC, and the other two once "P5" conferences that are now clamoring for respectability. These conferences are moving forward with from 16 to 18 members. They'll have to place roughly 10 of their members - if at 18 - to achieve the Big East's batting average of 6 placed. The Big East actually placed 7 teams in the 2023 NCAAT. As it turns out, so did the B1G, SEC and Big 12, but, again, with more mouths to feed.

It would seem that the bottomline may partially be about not having to worry about keeping up with the mega football conferences in sheer membership numbers. We already are successful in getting teams into the tournament. Otherwise, your point about diminishing returns really kicks in here: we will hit diminishing returns with too many additions, and any addition will have to provide real value in order to earn a spot at the table.

Otherwise, someone may want to advise Yormark to tread carefully with all this. Pissing off a bunch of Big East Presidents by attempting a raid of the BE is not exactly a great way to gain favor with them.

[EMT]

If you think back to when we had the reboot, the overarching concern was whether we could recruit well enough to compete with the P5 conferences. Annual MSG sellouts, 3 NCAA titles, top recruiting classes, 5+ annual bids. I say we accomplished everything we set out for.

We offer something that the P5 schools can't, and that resonates with enough kids to stay a top conference. In 2013, did anyone here expect us to be ranked higher and send the same or more bids than the ACC? Shit, we kept losing teams to the ACC.

I've had this argument for years - Name the schools that left their traditional conference for greener pa$$ages and maintained or increased their level of play? This can be football or basketball. The list is not that long. But the number of schools that decreased their level of play is large.

What's the offset for BC over the years - ACC $$$ vs. reduced donations because athletics suck?

[gtmoBlue]

If you think back to when we had the reboot, the overarching concern was whether we could recruit well enough to compete with the P5 conferences. Annual MSG sellouts, 3 NCAA titles, top recruiting classes, 5+ annual bids. I say we accomplished everything we set out for.

We offer something that the P5 schools can't, and that resonates with enough kids to stay a top conference. In 2013, did anyone here expect us to be ranked higher and send the same or more bids than the ACC? Shit, we kept losing teams to the ACC.

I've had this argument for years - Name the schools that left their traditional conference for greener pa$$ages and maintained or increased their level of play? This can be football or basketball. The list is not that long. But the number of schools that decreased their level of play is large.

What's the offset for BC over the years - ACC $$$ vs. reduced donations because athletics suck?

What a great and informed discussion here fellas. One of the better discussions in a long line of re-alignment discussions on this board.
Butler, lil Cr8n, Xavier, UConn - maintained or increased level of play.

Hmmm. Breakpoint/Tipping point for diminishing returns? 14? 16?

Since it has been alluded to in this current discussion, the ACC losing FSU/Clemson (Miami-UNC Cheat- UVA) will start the domino effect.
Losing the 5 dominant football schools + ND, possibly NC State, will leave 7-8 ACC schools with greatly reduced clout and prestige. Given
the invisioned backfill with lesser schools-which is far from the ideal (AAC/CUSA/Patriot, potentially WVU) scenarios. I see ND staying indy
with football and 'parking' their non-football sports back in the Big East. Further, given the uncertainty, backfilling with mediocre schools,
and the loss of ACC prestige, I see Duke, Notre Dame, and S'cuse bolting to the BE. Should UConn foolishly depart,
I would add an historic hoops school from up north: either Carleton (Ottawa, CAN), Holy Cross, or the Bonnie's of St. Bonaventure - all have an
impressive hoops history and pedigree.

11 current members, plus the 3 ACC defectors equals a 14-team Big East. The BEast holds at 14.

Preferrably the ACC implosion happens within the next 1.5 years - in time for the new accessions to affect our upcoming Media Rights negotiations
in Summer of 2025.

[EMT]

Sorry...I wasn't counting the teams that came into the BE or UConn.

[Savannah Jay]

I've had this argument for years - Name the schools that left their traditional conference for greener pa$$ages and maintained or increased their level of play? This can be football or basketball. The list is not that long. But the number of schools that decreased their level of play is large.

I think the schools left for more money, hoping that elevated competitiveness. I am not sure it's happened, on a significant scale, for anyone. Utah in football, maybe.

Maryland and Rutgers have been disasters in the Big 10. Even the money hasn't worked due to increased costs. The Athletic actually did an article titled, "The worst realignment move ever is worse than you thought" in August about Rutgers' move. One could argue Nebraska has been a disaster in football and kinda still the same mediocrity in hoops. ACC is riddled with schools that went from relevance in hoops and/or football to mostly bottom dwellers in both sports.

Despite all the evidence to the contrary, schools seem to think jumping conferences will be the "silver bullet" to make their football team relevant. Either they hope to be the next "Ohio State" or, more likely, "if Iowa can have $150M in revenue by being in the Big 10, we should be successful, too."

Here are the 25 schools with the most athletic dept revenue. 2 of them, Texas A&M and Louisville, are conference hoppers. One could argue the new conference is not the reason for either school being top 25 revenue-wise.

https://www.on3.com/news/usa-today-releases-top-25-total-revenue-college-athletics-programs/

If you look at the top 25 football rankings this year, I believe only Missouri is a conference hopper. Maybe their football is better (but hit or miss) but hoops is def not as consistently good.

In a nutshell, agree that it's mostly losers in realignment, competitively.

[Vertigo]

Man looking back from 2013. Xavier, Creighton, and Butler were fantastic adds

Since joining the conference.
19 - NCAA Tournament Bids
37 - NCAA Tournament Units
6 - Sweet Sixteens
2 - Elite 8s

looking towards the future, I predict Gonzaga to the BE, B12, or MWC before 2025. Val attended the Zags-UConn game so something could be brewing before the potential FOX/BE media contract renewal.