Conference Realignment: What Next?

[GumbyDamnit!]

Rumor is the ACC schools are starting to want out as well. Chaos.

Meanwhile Val A.:



Let it all burn and pick up the pieces of all those schools whose dreams of football glory crumbles. Even though I do believe they are better for the conference, I would so love to see UConn try to grab that brass ring once again and spiral back down into BB obscurity.

MMMMMMMWWWWWWAHHHHHH--HHHAAA! HHHAAAAA!

[GoldenWarrior11]

PAC 12 meetings conclude with no concrete TV proposal and only a request to meet again to discuss further. They don't have a hand to play. Arizona will seek to jump to the Big 12 (probably later tonight). Arizona State and Utah may seek to follow as well.

Washington and Oregon can either stay (and get paid significantly less with only streaming exposure), or seek to leave (where it probably can get in easy to the Big 12 (but would need to sign a GOR, or beg the B1G for a discounted rate w/ invitation and hope to get full shares after the current TV deal runs out). If they stay, they would have an incredibly easy access point into the CFP, but it undoubtedly gets reformated after this next cycle to remove their automatic slot.

[sju88grad]

Rumor is the ACC schools are starting to want out as well. Chaos.

Meanwhile Val A.:



Let it all burn and pick up the pieces of all those schools whose dreams of football glory crumbles. Even though I do believe they are better for the conference, I would so love to see UConn try to grab that brass ring once again and spiral back down into BB obscurity.

MMMMMMMWWWWWWAHHHHHH--HHHAAA! HHHAAAAA!

I'm with you Gumby....I so badly want UConn out.....they are going to leave at some point anyway, so might as well rip off the band aid.....

[Xudash]

How COULD the Big East end up with Syracuse and Duke within the next 5 years? Believe it or not, they would have to cry uncle under the GOR. If (when) the ACC goes to unbalanced revenue sharing (via performance) and Florida State, Clemson, et al begin soaking up the lion's share of the ACC media deal, they may want out at that point.

It all depends upon how much imbalance the new revenue distribution model produces. What if Syracuse goes from $30+ million per year to about $20 million? Yes, that would still be more than Big East money, but it would come with severe strain and the relationships within the ACC would be less than cordial.

Check this out: https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-rankings-georgia-near-unanimous-no-1-as-sec-dominates-top-of-2023-preseason-cbs-sports-133/

Some sharp legal work going on, circumventing state's rights and friendly legal channels by incorporating in Delaware. They made this entire smash a Federal issue.

[admin]

What happens over the he next couple days or weeks could decide the future of college athletics. With the exception of UConn, it's comforting to know that our schools can thrive in the absence of FBS football and should maintain a positive outlook when the dust settles.

[DeltaV]

Even if the ACC implodes, we're not getting anyone out of the deal. There will still be enough schools to make a core conference and they'll expand as necessary. From the outside it'll probably look a lot like the Big East divorce, though just the opposite on the inside (football schools leaving instead if the Catholic 7 basketball schools leaving, but taking the name and MSG with us).

They'll be left with, what, Duke, NC State, Wake, GaTech, maybe a Virginia school, Pitt, Syracuse, BC, Louisville. That's 8 or 9. I'm assuming the Golden Domers see the writing on the wall and join the Big 10.

They'll take Temple and UConn easily. Probably make overtures to Nova and Georgetown, maybe with money from exit fees to help get football facilities up to FBS level, but it hopefully won't take.

The sweater vests in Dayton will make a lot of noise about being considered, but won't actually be.

In the end, they'll flesh out with probably Memphis, maybe Tulane if the want to push the academic credibility, maybe SMU. Maybe Vanderbilt decides they're sick of the sports crazy SEC and comes over even though it's a down grade.

They'll end up with a solid 12 school all sports conference with reasonable geography and retain the ACC name. No need for anyone to drop football and go independent. Yeah, it won't be power 2.5, but it'll be popular, especially in the East.

[adoraz]

There's a lot of scenarios that could happen. I think it's likely most middle of the pack ACC schools like Syracuse will go to the Big 12. Schools such as BC and WF may not have a home, or will be in what's essentially the AAC now. At that point they may do what UConn did and join the Big East. The biggest threat to the Big East would be most of the top northeastern football schools consolidating into a single conference. They'd almost certainly go after MSG, and may also try to add St. John's for MSG purposes (as SI reported this week the Big 12 has some interest), as well as likely Villanova and Georgetown. Regardless, it does seem like things could change in weeks rather than years, but I like the current setup so I hope nothing drastic happens.

[JohnT]

There's a lot of scenarios that could happen. I think it's likely most middle of the pack ACC schools like Syracuse will go to the Big 12. Schools such as BC and WF may not have a home, or will be in what's essentially the AAC now. At that point they may do what UConn did and join the Big East. The biggest threat to the Big East would be most of the top northeastern football schools consolidating into a single conference. They'd almost certainly go after MSG, and may also try to add St. John's for MSG purposes (as SI reported this week the Big 12 has some interest), as well as likely Villanova and Georgetown. Regardless, it does seem like things could change in weeks rather than years, but I like the current setup so I hope nothing drastic happens.

I cannot see Syracuse joining the B12 under any scenario. Much more likely that whoever remains in the ACC pulls in UConn and a couple of other eastern schools to keep that league alive, albeit as a lesser league.

[Xudash]

So, perhaps:

1. BE BEST CASE - Big 12 raids the PAC, ACC grudgingly holds together for the duration of its GOR shackles, and UCONN remains locked into the BE comfortably through our next media rights negotiation.

2. 2nd CASE - Regardless of PAC developments, Big 12 can’t justify $31mm to UCONN nor find a way to structure inclusion on a lesser basis that works for both parties, ACC remains together for the foreseeable future, and UCONN remains with us for a while.

3. 3rd CASE - same as #2 above, except that at some point, the ACC fractures as it exists, and UCONN finds a path to whatever the diluted version of that becomes. Does that happen within the next 24 months? Were such an event to take place, would Fox call Val, requesting her to call Spokane (i.e. solve a basketball conference’s issue through basketball)?

I see the good points about some of these football schools still wanting to solve for football in the event they are forced to do so (e.g., Syracuse). On that note, thinking that there may be opportunities with a few of the so-called ACC discards may not be all that likely.

Organic growth becomes our calling card: we continue to get stronger the way we exist. Saint Johns grabbing Pitino. Georgetown waking back up. Moving forward in a way where getting at least six teams into the NCAAT every year is the norm.

Could our next medium agreement be any more important?

[GoldenWarrior11]

Florida State's BOT had a Zoom today where he threated for FSU to leave the ACC if the financial disparity between the B1G/SEC and ACC aren't rectified. The long-rumored GOR has been utilized to handcuff the ACC together through 2036, but if rumors are accurate that FSU will argue that the contract terms agreed to were fraudulent, it is possible that it could be argued to get out of the GOR (especially if other schools, cough, cough, Clemson, would hop on board as well).

Don't count out the Big Ten and Fox being an arranger behind the scenes on all of this. The B1G has its new TV deal through Fox, CBS, NBC, FS1, B1GN, etc.). The multi-network (NFL) model desires lots of content at multiple windows. Unlike ESPN, who doesn't have available cash (heck, they didn't even want to pay the SEC for an added ninth game), Fox seems eager and willing to overtake ESPN as the leading provider of desired sports content. ESPN is in big trouble long-term, as leagues/conferences are recognizing that they can eliminate the middle-man.

Wild times. There are several major realignment stories all happening at once. This makes 2011 look like a Disney picnic.