Conference Realignment: What Next?

[kayako]

I disagree strongly that the ACC or BIG 12 getting raided would be good for the BE. If those conferences get raided, we will become the hunted, not the hunter. The UCONN analogy is not a good one. Their goal then, as it is now, is to wind up in a P5 football conference. When they made the jump here their football was bottom of the barrel, and their basketball was leaking oil badly. They correctly surmised, that coming back to the BE was necessary to stabilize and revitalize basketball, and that football would be helped by playing more local cupcakes and becoming bowl eligible. People view this past football season as a success, but they would have been pounded, and remained a laughingstock, had they played the standard AAC schedule again. With basketball, they're getting northeast visibility again, and are getting plenty of national TV dates on Fox, including this upcoming weekend against St. John's. This recent success likely would not have happened had they remained in the AAC. The best place for them to bide their time, waiting for a P5 invite is here in the BE. They don't view the BE as their endgame, and never will.

As far as Dayton having contact with Val Ackerman, they probably have, as have a dozen other teams in all likelihood. By the same token, we have teams (plural) contacting other conferences as well. It doesn't mean anything will happen with anyone, but nobody wants to get caught with their pants down, if and when conference realignment heats up again in a meaningful way. Everyone wants to have plans A, B, and C in place. Even if they're raided, the ACC and BIG 12 won't be giving up football. Conferences like the Ivy League, The Patriot League, the CAA etc.. still play football even though they know they can't compete with the SEC and B1G. Football might be downgraded a bit in the ACC, but that only makes it more possible that the UCONN's, Villanova's and Georgetown's, might be able to compete a bit better. Those conferences will not give up the name of a recognized football brand, just as we didn't when we paid dearly (and wisely) to maintain Big East name, after the last round of realignment.

I don't know that anyone would want to leave for a BIG 12 that once raided of schools like Kansas, might leave them playing a diet of Iowa St. Texas Tech and Kansas St. Even thought those schools may have fine basketball, there's simply no history there. But an ACC that still has BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Virginia Tech, Miami, Louisville etc..., might have appeal to some of our members, especially if there's a big bump in guaranteed pay. The best thing for us is if the ACC GOR holds until 2036, and realignment is kept to a minimum until then. That way the Syracuse's, BC's and Pitt's can continue to wither on the vine, to the benefit of the Villanova's, Providences, Hall's and now UCONN (and hopefully one day St. John's) who have all benefited from those other teams declines, as outliers in a southern based league.

I agree with most of this. If the money (basketball) is comparable between B12, watered-down ACC, and the next BE's contract with UCONN, I am pretty certain that Nova doesn't even entertain leaving. But yeah, UCONN would certainly leave if invited for all sports including football, and that would become a big deal when negotiating for the next TV contract, which may make Nova think twice, especially the ACC with many of our former rivals.

I still think the most likely path is the ACC keep chugging along for the next decade, and who knows what the landscape looks like in 2030s. I am hoping this group of 11 schools stick together for a while.

[Omaha1]

Sounds like Florida State has asked legal counsel how much it would cost to buy themselves out of the ACC. Problem is the GOT runs through 2036.

[DeltaV]

Sounds like Florida State has asked legal counsel how much it would cost to buy themselves out of the ACC. Problem is the GOT runs through 2036.

Local newspaper had an article that Clemson is pushing for unequal distribution of money in the ACC, so that they can try and keep up with the BIG and SEC. Safe to assume their looking into a way out behind the scenes as well.

[Xudash]

Sounds like Florida State has asked legal counsel how much it would cost to buy themselves out of the ACC. Problem is the GOT runs through 2036.

Local newspaper had an article that Clemson is pushing for unequal distribution of money in the ACC, so that they can try and keep up with the BIG and SEC. Safe to assume their looking into a way out behind the scenes as well.

That obviously is not a solution for conference stability. I understand Clemson‘s point of view, which would be shared by Florida State, in particular, as well. They have the best chance of keeping up with the behemoths, and they need to do whatever they can to make that happen, to whatever degree possible.

Consider the smaller, private ACC schools that lack the necessary student body numbers to spread higher fees over. Imagine the financial stress on them as a result of taking a haircut on the media agreement payouts.

Who knows what is bubbling below the surface and what might bubble to the top.

[adoraz]

In regards to Big East expansion, I know enrollment isn't everything (for example: Providence), but it is definitely a factor and a few teams I doubt will ever be real candidates for that reason:

Davidson: 1.8K - yikes... this is why they have almost zero presence in NC (where I lived before moving to NYC)
Bonnies: 2.3K
Richmond: 4K

Just for reference, here are the Big East numbers (not rounding up for any teams):
Providence: 4.8K
Butler: 5.5K
Xavier: 6.1K

Creighton: 8.7K
Seton Hall: 9.8K
Villanova: 10.9K
Marquette: 11.5K

St. Johns: 21.7K
DePaul: 21.9K
Georgetown: 21.9K

UConn: 32.6K


Now, the point of all of this:
St. Mary's: 4.7K
Gonzaga: 7.4K

Let's just say if Gonzaga would come but ONLY if St. Mary's comes along with them (I have no idea if that would even be a factor, but just hypothetically). I've always assumed St. Mary's was too small for the Big East, and yes they would be the smallest member, but not by a significant margin and with Gonzaga would likely be worthwhile. Most importantly, I assume TV ratings for Gonzaga vs St. Mary's are pretty solid on a national scale.

[Xuperman]

St. Louis has always seemed like a natural fit IMO. Nearly 13k enrollment and a choice media market. Perfectly situated geographically. Their recruiting would certainly improve and would compete nicely from the jump.

[Jasper67]

Word has leaked out that the Pac-12 is planning to add 4 new members, with that number being a surprise in itself. San Diego State, Colorado State, and SMU have been confirmed by an insider as under serious consideration. Speculation is that they will go even farther east to Tulane for a 4th addition. So much for the speculation that they might consider Gonzaga as a non-football addition. I guess that the Big XII remains a possibility for the Bulldogs. Does the Big East already have too many bulldogs?

[gtmoBlue]

according to the Athletic... (italics are mine)

Pac 12 nearing a possible media rights agreement. Conf is supposedly valued at $31 Mill/year/school, similar to Big 12.

"Multiple people familiar with the Pac-12’s board members expressed doubt that their schools would switch conferences unless it’s for a substantially better deal. School presidents, not ADs, authorize realignment decisions, and the Pac-12’s prioritize academic and cultural fits more than most.

But circumstances have changed. Those sources believe if Yormark can convince the leadership at two Pac-12 schools to join the Big 12, that might be all it takes to land all four (4-corner schools) and pull the conference apart.

Yormark would need to get Fox to be an equal share partner in expansion. CBS Sports previously reported that the Big 12’s new rights contract includes an agreement with ESPN on a pro rata clause but that Fox has not committed to one. ESPN got 63 percent of the new TV deal with the Big 12, sources briefed on the agreement confirmed. Fox would have to sign off on the Big 12 adding Pac-12 schools as full-share members."

An interesting side note by Big12 Yormack...


"Yormark strongly believes basketball is undervalued in these TV rights talks. He has dropped hints about an interest in unbundling it from football and selling those rights separately when the Big 12 next hits the market in 2030-31. That’s one motivation behind the Big 12’s continued talks with hoops powerhouse Gonzaga. Joining as a non-football member would mean a smaller revenue share for the Bulldogs, but they’d be an inarguably valuable addition. Arizona, a top-10 program with more Pac-12 titles than every school but Big Ten-bound UCLA, would similarly boost the best conference in men’s college basketball and its long-term ambitions.

“I think we have an opportunity to monetize basketball in a way that hasn’t been done before,” Yormark said in an appearance on the Wilner & Canzano podcast last month. “It’s certainly something I’m thinking about. So if the opportunity ever exists where, within the construct of what makes sense for expansion, as part of that, we could double down on basketball and further cement our leadership position, it’s certainly something that I’m willing to consider.”

Don't know if he is speculating about a new cable arrangement, new network arrangement, or online streaming? His comments are vague. However, Amazon has been lowballing thus far and will have to wake up and smell the coffee (get serious) if they truly want to play in this game. This is a weak attempt to squeeze a bit of value out of KU and Baylor??? We shall see. Such talk will give Val additional ammo for our upcoming talks in 2024-25. Jasper's comments - adding 4 midmajors - would weaken, not strengthen, the Pac12's current negotiating position. - gtmo

[MullinMayhem]

The rumor seems to be the B12 still wants 4 basketball only members. 3 East and 1 West. Would have to think that means some Big East teams. But the B12 looks much more boring without Texas & Oklahoma. You have Kansas as the only real best for a long time as a blue blood for decades. Baylor is great but still relatively new success. After that...?????

[aughnanure]

The rumor seems to be the B12 still wants 4 basketball only members. 3 East and 1 West. Would have to think that means some Big East teams. But the B12 looks much more boring without Texas & Oklahoma. You have Kansas as the only real best for a long time as a blue blood for decades. Baylor is great but still relatively new success. After that...?????

Where are people seeing these? Message board?

I just don't think moving to a football-only conference is the financial boon many think it is. I've read it multiple places that 15-20% of a conference's TV deal is for basketball. The Big XII's deal is now $31.7 million. 20% of that is $6.3 million. That's super attractive for basketball-only schools not in the Big East. But I'd expect the Big East new deal to be in the ballpark of that quite easily.

So unless the Big XII is offering to significantly increase the share of the TV deal for the basketball-only schools (which seems extremely iffy, and its questionable if 20% is already an overpay), I don't see what's really to gain. There's more to lose in joining a conference like that where you would sort of lose your identity while also not making much more money.