Conference Realignment: What Next?

[adoraz]

I can't give St John's as much crap about their schedule as before. They did try this year.
Got Nebraska in Gavitt. not great, but not awful.
Got Temple and potentially Syracuse in exempt tournament. ok
Iowa St in Big 12 games. good
Florida St near Miami. looked good but they've gone into the tank.

Yeah they have 6 pretty bad games. But lots of teams have at least 4 or 5 bad games. Maybe could have had 1 more decent opponent instead of a dreg but it's defensible.

IMO it was a bad schedule from the start, and now it's a very bad schedule.

*Majority of games (6/11) against KenPom teams ranked: 264, 293, 301, 311, 338, 341. These numbers are from 2 days ago, but I doubt they've changed much.
*Only 1 road game
*Only 1 true neutral games (Florida St). Since our 2 Barclays games are local, I don't think we get full NET credit for them being neutral. I could be wrong about that, though.
*0 games against top 50 KenPom teams

Yes some teams such as Florida St and Syracuse (if we even play them) are doing worse than expected, but it was known pre-season this was a poor schedule (especially with all the cupcakes and lack of travel) and now it's looking like one of the worst for any Power team.

[stever20]

I can't give St John's as much crap about their schedule as before. They did try this year.
Got Nebraska in Gavitt. not great, but not awful.
Got Temple and potentially Syracuse in exempt tournament. ok
Iowa St in Big 12 games. good
Florida St near Miami. looked good but they've gone into the tank.

Yeah they have 6 pretty bad games. But lots of teams have at least 4 or 5 bad games. Maybe could have had 1 more decent opponent instead of a dreg but it's defensible.

IMO it was a bad schedule from the start, and now it's a very bad schedule.

*Majority of games (6/11) against KenPom teams ranked: 264, 293, 301, 311, 338, 341. These numbers are from 2 days ago, but I doubt they've changed much.
*Only 1 road game
*Only 1 true neutral games (Florida St). Since our 2 Barclays games are local, I don't think we get full NET credit for them being neutral. I could be wrong about that, though.
*0 games against top 50 KenPom teams

Yes some teams such as Florida St and Syracuse (if we even play them) are doing worse than expected, but it was known pre-season this was a poor schedule (especially with all the cupcakes and lack of travel) and now it's looking like one of the worst for any Power team.

You do get full NET credit for the neutral games even at Barclays.

It'll be interesting to see end of the year where their rating is for OOC. I don't think it'll be as bad as last year at all. Especially if you play Syracuse.

[adoraz]

That's good the Barclays games count as neutral. I remember a few years ago during Mullin's final season there was some debate whether they counted as neutral given how close they are to our home court. I forget what the outcome was. Regardless though only having 4 neutral/road games has to be amongst the worst of Power teams. Those make such a huge difference with regards to NET.

Another issue is St. John's isn't covering the spread vs these cupcakes (we saw similar in prior years), which will negatively impact our NET (offense and defense efficiency numbers).

Hopefully we win by 10+ tonight.


Back on topic- I wonder if Gonzaga's scrimmage with Tennessee and now getting blown out @ Texas will impact realignment for them. Just my take, but Gonzaga knew a few weeks ago they may not be dominate this season and thus put the rumor out there. Now that they're being exposed they may not receive a Big XII/Pac 12/Big East invite. (for the record I still think the BE should invite them)

[stever20]

UCLA meeting to finalize Big Ten invitation set for December 14.

[D'Flight32]

https://www.opb.org/article/2022/12/22/ ... beckoning/

When asked generally if Gonzaga feels wanted, Standiford simply replied, “yes," although there are no offers from potential suitors yet.

There is also the possibility that Gonzaga ends up staying put, deciding the WCC — all of its member schools are private, faith-based institutions — is the right fit.

“It’s not as easy or as simple as I think perhaps some people might want to think it is,” McCulloh said. “We are still a small- to medium-sized university that’s in a town called Spokane and our success as an institution has been very interrelated with our community and with our alumni.”

[xusandy]

Adding Gonzaga would be a huge win for the BEAST; the Zags are a great fit institutionally, meanings they're a smaller university with very good academics, a values-oriented perspective, deep roots in a local community, and a strong alumni base. Best of all, the Zags national reputation in bball would create a big $$$ value bump to conference media rights.

The only issue I see is with Gonzaga is geography and the cost of travel to/from the left coast, and so I wonder if St. Mary's is along for the ride. We might even want to go to 14 teams, which is a great model for two division basketball scheduling. Is a 12 team conference with complete home-away scheduling still practical, given the current pressure to schedule fewer cupcakes, more league vs. league series, and more Quad 1 and 2 games in November and December?

I've also not entirely given up on wanting to add St. Louis -- great institutional fit, big media market, decent basketball (won't take them long to get up to bball speed), a newer bigger arena, geographical "bridge to Creighton", etc., etc. So maybe we should go all the way to 14.

[xupuck10]

I posted this over on Xavierhoops, but figured I'd bring it here to see the thoughts...

Saw this news today: St. Thomas Announces Record-Breaking, $75 Million Gift for Multiuse Arena. St. Thomas has made a lot of movement in their athletics program over the past five years, including an unprecedented move from DIII to DI.

I know this is probably premature, but I think they could be a great 5-10 year strategic plan to move to the Big East. They bring the Minneapolis tv market (#14 nationwide - bigger than Cincinnati, Indy, Milwaukee - and St. Louis since SLU has always been mentioned), a like-minded private Catholic university now showing a significant investment in athletics. Some of their sports are starting to succeed, and if they can continue to grow, I think it could be worth some consideration.

[Wizard of Westroads]

I posted this over on Xavierhoops, but figured I'd bring it here to see the thoughts...

Saw this news today: St. Thomas Announces Record-Breaking, $75 Million Gift for Multiuse Arena. St. Thomas has made a lot of movement in their athletics program over the past five years, including an unprecedented move from DIII to DI.

I know this is probably premature, but I think they could be a great 5-10 year strategic plan to move to the Big East. They bring the Minneapolis tv market (#14 nationwide - bigger than Cincinnati, Indy, Milwaukee - and St. Louis since SLU has always been mentioned), a like-minded private Catholic university now showing a significant investment in athletics. Some of their sports are starting to succeed, and if they can continue to grow, I think it could be worth some consideration.

I agree, somewhere out in the future. St. Thomas has an unbelievable sports history, so much so that the NCAA allowed them to jump directly from D-3 to D-1 and the Summit League. Pretty good size school, and they get sports. They're in the middle of the pack in the Summit League and gave Creighton all it could handle in our opener.

Currently 217 in KenPom, 16 spots ahead of Georgetown, in just their SECOND year in D-1.

[anXUfan]

You guys are killing me!

[mel ott]

I posted this over on Xavierhoops, but figured I'd bring it here to see the thoughts...

Saw this news today: St. Thomas Announces Record-Breaking, $75 Million Gift for Multiuse Arena. St. Thomas has made a lot of movement in their athletics program over the past five years, including an unprecedented move from DIII to DI.

I know this is probably premature, but I think they could be a great 5-10 year strategic plan to move to the Big East. They bring the Minneapolis tv market (#14 nationwide - bigger than Cincinnati, Indy, Milwaukee - and St. Louis since SLU has always been mentioned), a like-minded private Catholic university now showing a significant investment in athletics. Some of their sports are starting to succeed, and if they can continue to grow, I think it could be worth some consideration.

Thinking outside the box, but that could have a lot of merit due to the factors you mentioned. Also, tons of money in that town and a great recruiting area!