Conference Realignment: What Next?

[adoraz]

I think most people agree that Gonzaga would need at least 1 (maybe 3?) travel partners on the west coast.

This may sound like a crazy idea and I don't really endorse it, but what about Washington St or Oregon St? They will almost certainly get left behind and if they agree to deemphasize football and go big on basketball that may be more enticing to them than going to a G5 league. Now yes, I fully understand that these have been BAD basketball schools and do not fit the Big East profile. I get that. But Gonzaga would be the prize while those schools would be filler, and also would be much closer travel partners than St. Mary's or whatever. Further, since those schools have been P5/P6 for a long-time it might give the Big East more credibility than if they were to add WCC schools (outside of Gonzaga). They're also of course state schools so I assume their alumni bases would be bigger than the other options.

Again, I don't really endorse the idea but if we needed a pod of 4 and were to add Gonzaga, St. Mary's, Washington St and Oregon St then maybe that could benefit the league. It wouldn't drive up our revenue average per team but it would create a west coast time slot which could still help overall. Fox/FS1 would then have basketball content for all hours and the Big East would gain a lot of followers in the west who may tune into earlier east/midwest BE games.

Some other ideas: San Diego St, San Fran and UNLV. They're decent basketball schools but they're not very close to Gonzaga so I'm not sure if they would qualify as travel partners, but at the very least they'd be in the mix for a bid most years.

My preference is IF it could work then only add Gonzaga for now. If not then only one other school (probably St. Mary's or San Fran? I like SDSU too). It's a shame that basketball on the west coast has been so bad and nobody outside of Gonzaga (besides an unavailable school like Arizona) would be a slam dunk.

[Jasper67]

I think most people agree that Gonzaga would need at least 1 (maybe 3?) travel partners on the west coast.

This may sound like a crazy idea and I don't really endorse it, but what about Washington St or Oregon St? They will almost certainly get left behind and if they agree to deemphasize football and go big on basketball that may be more enticing to them than going to a G5 league. Now yes, I fully understand that these have been BAD basketball schools and do not fit the Big East profile. I get that. But Gonzaga would be the prize while those schools would be filler, and also would be much closer travel partners than St. Mary's or whatever. Further, since those schools have been P5/P6 for a long-time it might give the Big East more credibility than if they were to add WCC schools (outside of Gonzaga). They're also of course state schools so I assume their alumni bases would be bigger than the other options.

Again, I don't really endorse the idea but if we needed a pod of 4 and were to add Gonzaga, St. Mary's, Washington St and Oregon St then maybe that could benefit the league. It wouldn't drive up our revenue average per team but it would create a west coast time slot which could still help overall. Fox/FS1 would then have basketball content for all hours and the Big East would gain a lot of followers in the west who may tune into earlier east/midwest BE games.

Some other ideas: San Diego St, San Fran and UNLV. They're decent basketball schools but they're not very close to Gonzaga so I'm not sure if they would qualify as travel partners, but at the very least they'd be in the mix for a bid most years.

My preference is IF it could work then only add Gonzaga for now. If not then only one other school (probably St. Mary's or San Fran? I like SDSU too). It's a shame that basketball on the west coast has been so bad and nobody outside of Gonzaga (besides an unavailable school like Arizona) would be a slam dunk.

Fox will decide who to add. Gonzaga will decide whether to accept. There will be no football adds unless football is independent - and BYU is no longer an option.

The WCC schools - including St. Mary’s are not really viable options. They draw about 3000 fans per school at best, which is too small a fan base. Gonzaga sells out their 6000 seat home arena every game and has the option of moving games to Spokane’s 12000 seat downtown arena.

St. Mary’s in particular is not a good travel partner because it’s not within driving distance of Gonzaga. It’s almost 900 miles away. They’re another plane flight, so they don’t help all that much. For the rest of the BE, they stretch the conference even farther west with little to gain.

[Xudash]

Great dialogue going on here and in the USC/UCLA thread.

Are the SEC and B1G solving for football only? Yes. Actually, yes, period and end of story. As has been pointed out, this is about maximizing revenue from football related media. The basketball tail will not wag the football dog. Here is some insightful reading on the subject: https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/33968033/could-sec-stage-own-college-football-playoff-all-table-spring-meetings

Would the P2 ever break away totally for all sports; would they take all of their various kinds of sports balls and run off and do their own thing between themselves? IMHO, that makes no sense, especially if they achieve what they want with optimizing consolidation on the football side. It's clear from the above article that the powers that be aren't terribly happy with the NCAA overall, but I'm not sure their collective dispositions will lead them to take an axe to that organization.

I thought we had a few guys here that are or were in media or close enough to the media business to more eloquently opine on this matter, but allow me to attack this question from a simple VERY ROUGH numbers angle.

Assumptions:

1. The SEC eventually moves to 20 schools (somehow making sense of such a move).
2. The B1G eventually moves to 20 schools (somehow making sense of such a move).
3. The average student population of those 40 schools equals 40,000 per school.
4. The average alumni population of those schools is "times 10" their enrollments.

That puts the rough, core total potential viewing population for their basketball tournament at 17.6 million - "core potential" viewing.

Last year's NCAAT Championship game drew 18.1 million viewers (https://www.statista.com/statistics/244249/ncaa-basketball-march-madness-average-audience-per-game/). That's just the championship game. That figure obviously doesn't include viewership from the other rounds, including the opening rounds, when there are 68 teams with high hopes and vested interests that come from a base of over 300 schools. That much larger base that involved all that inclusiveness and casual fans with their brackets that tune in for this unique sporting event bubbled and boiled its way down to 18 million viewers for that championship game. Imagine the viewership for a "championship" game between the remaining 2 of the 40 if they run off and do their own thing.

Besides, the "40,000 student population per school" figure obviously is rough. Ohio State clocks in at over 61,000. Vandy clocks in at under 14,000, but that includes just over 7,000 undergraduate students (i.e. the more likely passionate fans from a school). Another state flagship school? There are less than 23,000 Oregon Ducks quacking about annually. The current juggernaut in the sport - Alabama - has under 38,000 students. Here's a clip from Bama's alumni association: Over 35,500 members include not only alumni, but also thousands of University of Alabama supporters and Crimson Tide Fans. The "times 10" alumni assumption appears heavy as well, based on that tidbit. In other words, even at schools such as these, some of their students don't care about sports, and some graduate and move on without keeping up with their alma maters. Bama clearly must have more than 35k living alumni.

Even if you argued that these 40 schools have "subway fans" (i.e. fans that did not graduate from the school), the living alumni assumption appears to be heavy. It would at least most likely easily soak up any casual fans that exist for a school.

You can see where this is headed. The SEC and B1G, at 40 members, could not generate the viewership numbers that would make their own basketball tournament financially attractive. Yes, the denominator goes down to 40, but the issue is what the numerator could hold.

Breaking away for basketball would result in a lot of disruption, that may attract congressional interest anyway, for uncertain financial benefit (unless media guys tell me I'm completely off with this thought process here), and it would otherwise ruin what truly is one of the great sports offerings on the calendar.

Here's where I could be wrong: Bud Foxx to Gordon Gekko: "How many yachts can you ski behind?" If pure greed and abundant vanity end up driving their decisioning, then all bets are off.

[gtmoBlue]

Who cares what the P2 does with their football.

However, let them break away totally. Any hoops tourney they devise cannot compete with the NCAA Hoops tourney, the remaining (approximate) 300 Div 1 schools.

Let us not forget that many of the 'discarded' P5 teams are great at hoops: Oregon, Arizona, KU, Baylor, Houston, Memphis, etc.; along with the BEast, A10 and the rest. The NCAA Tourney would continue to thrive without them. As pointed out - most championship teams were not in the SEC nor B1G. Furthermore, the popularity of the NCAA Tourney "IS IN IT's INCLUSIVENESS" - Murray St., Belmont, Valpo, UNI, St Peters, Buffalo, etc.. The remaining 300 teams will still provide the excitement folks love in the NCAA Dance. I can give you 19.6 Billion reasons the NCAA Basketball Tournament will be fine. The NCAA has Tourney contracts covering the next 10 years. The outlook for the NCAA Tournament dance is bright - whether UK, Mich St, UCLA - are in it ...or Not. $19.6 Billion reasons the Dance is fine.

Subtracting 40 or so P2 schools, or 60 P3 schools:
1. means less schools the NCAA needs to support.
2. Bigger payouts to tourney teams.
3. More money for the NCAA to pocket for "operating costs".

$19.6 billion is the size of the NCAA contracts with CBS and TNT for TV rights to the Division 1 Men’s Basketball Championship from 2010 to 2032. In 2016 the NCAA signed an $8.8 billion dollar contract extension with CBS and Turner that goes from 2025 to 2032. This contract extension was on top of the existing $10.8 billion that the networks agreed to pay the NCAA for the TV rights to the tournament from 2010 to 2024. That's NCAA money, not the schools.

https://www.insidehighered.com/blogs/te ... v-contract
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/n ... /82939124/

[Jasper67]

Great discussion here. I’ll only add that the big story of this year’s tournament was not that 4 blue bloods made it to the Final Four. It was St. Peter’s. Their Elite 8 matchup vs the Tar Heels was the most watched non-Final Four game in the tournament and their win over Pursue was the 3rd most watched game before the Final Four. As has been already explained by Gtmo and XUDash, those weren’t St. Peter’s fans accounting for the high viewership.

[gtmoBlue]

365 Sports panel is struggling with the 'How' the acc might defeat their GoR.

This guy (gold n blue guy) says seven schools are onboard with dissolving the ACC GoR, including Notre Dame. Eight are needed.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HCIQqyr1hCU

Where's my popcorn??

[GoldenWarrior11]

365 Sports panel is struggling with the 'How' the acc might defeat their GoR.

This guy (gold n blue guy) says seven schools are onboard with dissolving the ACC GoR, including Notre Dame. Eight are needed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HCIQqyr1hCU

Where's my popcorn??

I am no lawyer, but Frank alluded to the ACC GOR as individual schools signing over their TV rights to ESPN. So, even if the ACC were to be disbanded, those schools (still playing and being shown on TV) would still have their rights legally owned by ESPN. Now, a GOR has never been challenged in court before. Rest assured, you have every single lawyer at these schools combing over it to find a backdoor to get out of it. At the end of the day, these ACC schools (just like the AAC schools) made a colossally bad decision in signing an incredibly long TV deal for below market value. I will agree if there is one school that could look to trigger an opt-out, it would be ND; as a non-football member, their exit penalties would be substantially less than a full member, and then leaving would crater the value of the ACC TV contract (even as a non-football member, there are a number of ESPN games annually along with the basketball TV rights). However, ND doesn't want to move anywhere. They like the current arrangement, so they won't be leading the charge IMO.

Boston College, Wake Forest, Pittsburgh and Syracuse will all be fighting tooth and nail to keep the GOR in tact (as neither is guaranteed a landing spot). FSU, Clemson, Miami, Georgia Tech and North Carolina would all have deals today to move to either the Big Ten or SEC. I'd imagine Virginia and Virginia Tech would as well. Not sure if the SEC needs NC State if North Carolina comes, and NC State isn't getting invited to the Big Ten. Duke is also a question mark. Louisville would only be invited to the SEC, and they are no shoe-in either.

[gtmoBlue]

John Canzano and Bob Thompson (former Fox exec) on Pac-12, individual team worth (in a tiered compensation MR package). Still seems high to me, but it looks as though they used the current package to do these estimates.

https://www.johncanzano.com/p/canzano-g ... ingIn=true

The PAC-12 tiers seem generous. I'd have gone 5 tiers and a bit lower pricing. If the new package is $21 Million (30% reduction due to LA schools exit), then adjust down from there. This could also be applied to the 'forever contract' that the ACC has. Interesting take by Canzano & Thompson...albeit generous.

[gtmoBlue]

Frank is incorrect.

That is not how MR deals are done GW11. A conference deals with a network and deals are made at that level.
There is no mechanism for individual member schools in a conference to do side negotiations with a network. (Other than so-called 'independent' schools- BYU/ND).
If the conference is dissolved/disbanded, any contracts go null/void from the point of the dissolution of that conference. ESPN is not paying in advance to the ACC or any
other conference. ESPN 'owns' nothing.

Perhaps he got some of the verbage confused.

[dakphonics]

I’m going to be that guy (from Omaha) that has to come back here and point out something intended to annoy Xavier fans and keep this never-ending thread from going off the first page. If things go the way of the preseason rankings, Dayton would once again be one of the best teams in the Big East this year. I’ve always liked that team because they have an awesome passionate fan base in a city not that smaller than Omaha, they host the first four, and they win a lot of games.

Also I have a true love for, and irrational belief in “mid-major” Catholic schools that seem like perpetual Cinderellas building major programs without football. I want to see another one punch above their weight all the way to the holyland of hoops. And they are more likely to elevate their status than anyone else. They are (I’m sorry) quite far ahead of SLU in terms of pedigree/history. And I kinda think if Dayton joins the Big East it will elevate SLU faster as it is quite clear they are working to make themselves attractive to the Big East as well.

Also I feel bad for Dayton. When Creighton got picked over Dayton (when we are already so far West), I felt like we were incredibly fortunate to be outside the conference footprint and still get an invite. It feels like it was such a reach, and Dayton which was right in that same area with Butler and Xavier… I felt like we were lucky. Dayton on the other hand kinda got screwed over. Everyone in Omaha knew Creighton was a sleeping giant. And I think Dayton folks feels the same way about their program. And so I just want to see them get invited and go nuts. I’m sure Butler and Xavier fans will make the argument that there are already two teams recruiting that area. Well you also have Cincinnati, Purdue, Indiana, Norte Dame, Michigan and MSU, West Virginia, Ohio State, Kentucky, and Louisville... probably the Illinois schools too. So really, what’s one more?

Also if there is a team I kinda see as our natural rival it is Xavier. I am already worried they are going to beat us once this year when they shouldn’t. It will probably be when we are undefeated at home, and someone on our team will tear an ACL or something so late in the game that it happens on an inbounds play with XU up 5 with 1 second on the clock. This player will get hurt when the outcome has been decided and it didn’t need to happen. He shouldn’t even be out there!!! And it will probably happen because that’s just how it goes in X-CU games, there have been a lot of meaningful and close bouts for both sides. Lots of joy and heartbreak. Villanova, Xavier and Creighton have been 1, 2, and 3 in the conference in terms of weeks in the AP ranks and tourney appearances/success since re-alignment. Villanova is like Big Bro that we beat more than most, but we are still a bit behind. Xavier is like our twin brother that I want to make eat dirt. Xavier seems to have many natural and bitter rivals, but Creighton fans appreciate the lore we have with Xavier going back to the MVC/Horizon (but we arent mid-major) days and I hope the feelings are mutual. And, well anyway… I want Dayton to join so that I can laugh at how annoyed Xavier fans get. After all, the enemy of my enemy is my friend. At least for now.

Also I’d just prefer to stay at 11. All of the above is what I’d want if we had to take one more and if Gonzaga couldn’t work or if a certain specific P5 school wouldn’t dissolve their incredibly horrible football program to join us. The football team that nobody watches, with the crumbling stadium. The football team that is about to be a massive black hole to their state where the citizens are disengaged (sound familiar UCONN?). The football team that struggles to fill their scholarships. The team that the media companies are going to do no favors for with the departure of conference heavyweights. The football team that is looking less and less likely to ever join the BigTen/SEC duopoly. The football team whose school is just a few hours from Omaha, and a stones throw from major market Kansas City. The school whose basketball team is a blue blood, the defending national champs, the Rock Chaulk Jayhawks. I think this is about the only realistic shot at any power conference school unless the ACC just completely exploded. Which isn’t going to happen this realignment cycle. So it’s Gonzaga (well if it could work, then duh), then KU (again if it could work, duh) and after that it’s Dayton for different reasons. And then that’s like pretty much it.

But let’s be real. It’s prob up to the media companies. I don’t know what Dayton could bring. But their alumni base is bigger than much of the Big East, and they probably get good ratings there in the city of Dayton. People may say, who watches Dayton basketball outside the city of Dayton? And I’d say, who watches Creighton Basketball outside of the city of Omaha? Not many, and Omaha isn’t that much bigger than Dayton. Really who watches much of any basketball team in the Big East outside the city they reside? Do more people in New York watch SJU than people in Omaha watch Creighton? It’s a fair question. It wouldn’t surprise me if Dayton was able to draw more of an audience to a Creighton matchup than when we play DePaul, Georgetown, or St. John’s. Because of the way that community embraces the team it wouldn’t surprise me if they were top half of the conference in terms of ratings.

I’ll stop now. I just want to say, I think Dayton is closer than many would like to believe. But double round robin, or big splash first.