Conference Realignment: What Next?

[gtmoBlue]

What the next likely scenario would be is that premier basketball schools which were left out of B1G/SEC expansion would look to form their own basketball centric league rather than joining an expanded Big East or sticking with their old conference mates. The core group around which to build such a league would be the following group of past national champions:

Duke
Kansas
Louisville
Syracuse
Baylor
UConn

If the Big East is going to look to expand to improve their revenue potential, they have to look at school like their current members. I don’t think that their current members are looking to go back to the old hybrid concept, nor do I think that schools with football like Kansas looking to a group of non-football schools for their future home. Any future BE expansion would only come from schools which can move the revenue needle. That list begins with Gonzaga if they’re willing to do what USC and UCLA have just done.

No. The forsaken 3 conferences are Not irrelevant. They will Just be playing for a revised "NCAA" Div 1 Football championship, and for a lot less money.
Why on earth would these football schools (who could still be earning $10-15 Million/year, maybe a bit more) want to form a basketball centric conference? Makes no sense.

[Xudash]

Well, well - just when you thought it was safe to believe that things were calming down for a few seconds:

https://www.offtackleempire.com/2022/7/7/23198674/rumor-sec-expansion-north-carolina-virginia-clemson-virginia-big-ten-miami-notre-dame-realignment

It certainly could be someone looking for clicks or at least jumping the gun. Not that that ever happens. However, it probably is safe to believe that a lot of activity is taking place quietly right now.

[DeltaV]

A swimming blog breaking major conference realignment? Hell, I'm a swimmer and can tell you that's, well, suspicious at best. The swim coach and everyone in the program is hearing this the same way we do, they're not going to be in high level discussions like this.

And hasn't the logic been that UVA at least would be a better fit for the BIG, based on academics? UNC was another one I've heard with that, though isn't their football team pretty horrid? I guess someone has to take one of the worst Carolina teams.

[Xudash]

A swimming blog breaking major conference realignment? Hell, I'm a swimmer and can tell you that's, well, suspicious at best. The swim coach and everyone in the program is hearing this the same way we do, they're not going to be in high level discussions like this.

And hasn't the logic been that UVA at least would be a better fit for the BIG, based on academics? UNC was another one I've heard with that, though isn't their football team pretty horrid? I guess someone has to take one of the worst Carolina teams.

Understand. There were a number of links about it. I quickly picked one of them. It seems that any small spark of information can set off an avalanche of "did you hear" rumors and reactions to the news.

I just have to believe that, if you are a member of the ACC, long for membership in the SEC, and perceived to have a viable, sustainable football program - looking at you Florida State and Clemson, in particular - then you have to be beside yourself at this point given the money disparity you'll be facing for A DECADE.

I didn't put Miami in there because, regardless of their history in the 80's and 90's, they strike me as a paper tiger when it comes to program strength. Their fan support is suspect. Sure, Miami is in a big city in a key state, but half that statement is their problem: there is a school in Gainesville in that state, too. I have to believe that the SEC would only have an appetite for the 2 bigger schools.

Otherwise, I agree with you about UVA and UNC being better fits for the B1G. I doubt the SEC even cares about them, given the above options.

Who knows. More fodder for summertime message board activity.

[DeltaV]

Gotcha X, I only read the one link and it's citation.

And I guess, on another hand, we had a lot of well off swimming alumni at Nova who may donate enough to get the good info.

Clemson and FSU wanting into the SEC are the obvious choices. It'll all come down to timeline I guess. It'll be sweet, watching the ACC get picked apart after they did the same to the old Big East.

[Jasper67]

What the next likely scenario would be is that premier basketball schools which were left out of B1G/SEC expansion would look to form their own basketball centric league rather than joining an expanded Big East or sticking with their old conference mates. The core group around which to build such a league would be the following group of past national champions:

Duke
Kansas
Louisville
Syracuse
Baylor
UConn

If the Big East is going to look to expand to improve their revenue potential, they have to look at school like their current members. I don’t think that their current members are looking to go back to the old hybrid concept, nor do I think that schools with football like Kansas looking to a group of non-football schools for their future home. Any future BE expansion would only come from schools which can move the revenue needle. That list begins with Gonzaga if they’re willing to do what USC and UCLA have just done.

No. The forsaken 3 conferences are Not irrelevant. They will Just be playing for a revised "NCAA" Div 1 Football championship, and for a lot less money.
Why on earth would these football schools (who could still be earning $10-15 Million/year, maybe a bit more) want to form a basketball centric conference? Makes no sense.

I’m just spitballing here, so forgive my speculation.

I don’t know what “revised NCAA Div I Football Championship” you’re talking about. Can you help me out with that one.

You ask why these “football schools” would want to form a new conference. The reason for my speculation is that they’re not really football schools in the sense that they don’t generate the revenue from football that big time football schools do. They are really basketball-first schools. What is happening in recent realignment moves is that revenue producers like Texas are leaving behind schools which have been drawing revenue from them. This has been a long standing tension in the Big XII in particular. The schools that are moving are doing so in order to keep more of the money they’ve been generating because they’re now in conferences with other big revenue producers.

As this realignment continues, the remnants of these conferences are and will increasingly be schools which are not revenue producers, which will leave these hollowed out conferences with TV contracts which pay them less and less. My thinking is that within those remnants are schools which are national brands in basketball. By banding together, they could maximize the value of their basketball revenue. Such a conference would still have a football side to their revenue stream, which would continue to have the reduced value that the leftovers will have in any conference but now it will have enhanced basketball revenue as well.

To me, it seems like it’s all about maximizing assets. There are basketball programs which generate a lot of revenue and as a result are very valuable. So, my thought is really that the same forces which have brought together high revenue producing football programs under 1 umbrella could move high revenue producing basketball schools to do the same. Why does Duke want to continue in a league with the likes of Boston College when the benefit is one sided? In a basketball-centric conference, match ups between national brands like Duke and Kansas would generate a national audience. The revised Big XII doesn’t offer Kansas those high profile match ups.

Your criticisms of my post are certainly valid. Like all of us, I’m just trying to make sense of all of this. So, I’m peering around the next corner to try to get a glimpse of what the future might bring. That’s certainly something none of us can know. But a true coast-to-coast conference from NY to LA was unimaginable just a few weeks ago.when Dave Gavitt put together the Bug East, bringing together all of the major markers in the Northeast and then made it a success, it was a sensation which achieved successes bigger than anyone had dreamed. So, is it such a wild idea that the same thing could be done with national basketball brands in a post-apocalyptic college sports world?

[adoraz]

Nobody knows how things will end up, but I think basketball schools with FBS football forming a basketball league is one of the least likely scenarios. Why would those teams leave their current conferences (let's say a depleted ACC and Big XII) and take a big pay cut by making a new conference while simultaneously moving down to a really awful football conference? They will almost certainly join or remain with whatever schools give them the highest payout (aka football schools).

Now, if they decide FBS football is not financially worth it anymore (probably years from now) then they may drop to Independent or FCS to cut expenses, and at that point they may join/merge with the Big East or some of the top teams, but they won't willingly unify with the worst football teams unless they're forced to.

I don't think a scenario like that has happened in recent memory, where a school joined/formed a conference that wasn't in their best financial interests. A basketball conference with what would be some of the worst FBS football is not in their best financial interests. They'll cling to whatever football schools give them the highest payout, but years later will likely be forced to drop FBS football entirely.

Anyway, it does seem realignment may be done for the summer, but I expect more next summer. Hope for a big year from the Big East to drive up our next contract.

[BEwannabe]

They'll cling to whatever football schools give them the highest payout, but years later will likely be forced to drop FBS football entirely.


Agree 100% because frankly the only dynamic changing is the SEC and B1G are going to get even larger payouts than before...the TV networks still need content to fill the timeslots. Those timeslots already exist so it's just big time college football game of musical chairs and there are 2 gold throne chairs and only teams from the BIG or SEC can sit in them. Everyone else is scrambling for a seat and for some hopefully a pass to 1 of the gold chairs.

Bottomline there will still be $$'s but if UCLA was considering a) dropping sports to save money or b) charging greater student fees to support them then the rest of college football not named B1G or SEC has some decisions coming down the line.

None of this I see having an impact on Big East before next tv contract and probably beyond. Just as the case is in football, the networks need content for basketball tv and there simply isn't enough content among the bigs so the networks will tell the B1G and SEC, come on folks we need you to play along so we can keep this football gravy train rolling.

[Xudash]

Jasper, I actually believe your post is well thought out. Your underlying premise is about maximizing assets. That is logically taking place first and foremost in big time college football, because that is what generates the truly big media payouts.

I believe you are spot on about these big "battleships" - like Texas - taking the position that they had had enough with having to subsidize the likes of an Iowa State. The SEC and the B1G are essentially in a race against one another, working with their media partners to figure out which additions create a "lights out" differential between those conferences and the other remaining conferences, particularly what had been the other P5 conferences.

Timing and intent now come into play with all of this. When the dust settles around the most recent major moves, we'll end up with the following:

- SEC = 16
- B1G = 16
- ACC = 14
- BIG 12 = 12
- PAC (n) = 10
- Notre Dame

69 teams in total (up from what had been 65, by virtue of the Big 12 raiding the AAC to make up for the loss of Texas and Oklahoma).

So, big question #1: Are the SEC and B1G inclined to break away from the FBS in order to establish their own playoff and championship format? A lot of factors play into such a possible move, but I simply don't believe that is likely in the near term. 32 out of 125 FBS schools get uppity and go off to create their own thing? They don't need to do that. They're already solving for their CONFERENCE MEDIA PAYOUTS PER SCHOOL. I would think, with the advantages they're creating with gobs more money, that they'll simply be set up that much better for grabbing the majority of slots that will be available for the championship playoff format. The NCAA is certainly in no position to tell the SEC and B1G what they can and cannot do moving forward. And even Nick Saban at Alabama has voiced his concern over competitive balance in college football - the idea of leveling the field with respect to N I L money, etc. My guess is that they stay in the fold, so to speak, at least for the foreseeable future.

That kind of takes care of the top for now, if you agree with my thinking. What about the bottom, before we get to your point about the middle? That's easy, and it also is painful - for the bottom. But, then again, the bottom has been operating under duress for a long time now. The MAC, Sunbelt, C-USA, AAC, Mountain West - whatever - probably decide to play on as they've played up until now, so long as they continue to find a way to generate income statements that are acceptable to the boards of trustees of those institutions. It isn't about the "walking dead" for them. They just want to continue to offer football and project a certain image to the students they attract. Personally, as just one example, I cannot imagine Ohio University not having football at what is now the FBS level. Onward they go, especially by being sacrificial lambs at places like Ohio Stadium for big paydays for their athletic departments.

Now to your point, and to the middle. What do you do if you had been in the club, but you find out one day that the club has changed and that you are no longer in THE club? What do you do if you are a Wake, Oregon State, Okie State, Baylor, etc.? Obviously, we're watching that play out now.

What do we know at present:

1. The gap between the SEC and B1G will be material with respect to media payouts per school, regardless of what the middle cobbles together.

2. The ACC, as a conference, has a shelf life of about 14 years "as-is", unless some creative attorneys working for the likes of FSU and Clemson can figure out how to break through the GoR, etc. FSU and Clemson see nothing but angst with all this. Schools like Boston College, Wake, Duke and Syracuse see nothing but a temporary stay of execution; an hourglass that has been turned over in a situation that already is stressful.

3. The Big12 and the Pac(n) are scrambling, frankly along with the ACC, except that the first two are scrambling to destroy each other in order to survive in some fashion.

Now very directly to your point. While some of these jolted schools are basketball-centric, they probably will attempt to save football by every means possible. I've been hopefully thinking that, as an example, BC, Syracuse, etc. end up put in a position of having the GoR wrecked and the ACC blown up. Thay may result in them landing backwards into some conference arrangement that had the effect of reducing their annual media payout from the existing mid-30's millions to, say, $15 or $20 million. How would their administrations handle that? How do you handle that if your are private and you have a relatively small student population that prohibits you from making it up via heavier student fee subsidies?

Well, if you want to keep football, and you've come to realize that, in your case, it has become time to allow the tale to wag the dog - to emphasize basketball over football, or to at least emphasize them together to maximize return on their two key assets, then perhaps you do what you're suggesting.

It may be expansion candidate opportunities lost for us, especially given their propensity to not want to have to fold up their FBS football program heritages. Long story short: it has been about solving for football. What we end up with here, given your thought, is that some of them end up working through a solution by emphasizing both, given what some of them bring to the table with hoops. That is certainly a viable way of looking at it.

If that's how it turns out, and assuming UCONN doesn't get a wild hair and leaves us - finds itself in a situation where it could rather desperately jump to such a conference - we should still be okay with respect to NCAA basketball.

And if it does turn out along the lines of what you have identified here, any program in the middle that is private and smallish will still end up taking a haircut in its media payouts (e.g. Baylor and TCU will be up first for that) and experience new found financial stress in its athletic department. On that note, there is only so much "maximizing" they'll be able to do.

[DeltaV]

I think some of you are being overly optimistic that schools will downgrade football in favor of basketball. Really, the only school that has done that is UConn, and they didn't really have any football history and a ton of basketball success.

Football is still the most popular sport in the country, and that doesn't seem to be changing any time soon, and the non super conference schools will salvage what they can and stay together. Now, out of that you'll still probably get some decent basketball conferences as well, but I'm not expecting Syracuse and Pitt to come back to the Big East.