USC and UCLA to the Big Ten by 2024?

[Jasper67]

I am utterly shocked (even more so than by last summer's Texas/Oklahoma news to the SEC). I have long thought that a BIG-PAC raid was inevitable, but I always thought that it would come after an ACC raid; alas, to quote Bob Dylan, "The Times They Are A-Changin'". The B1G (and the SEC) are not done. More consolidation will occur, and the Mega 2 will continue to increase television revenues and exclusivity. The Big Ten is certainly on the phone right now with Oregon, Washington, Stanford and California as well, with Arizona and Colorado on Line-2. They will look to create a Western Division, with an endgame of probably ~24 schools broken into a few divisions/pods. Heck, the B1G Championship might inevitably become the Rose Bowl Game itself, whose champion could face off against the Sugar Bowl Champion in the new Division 1 Championship Game (host to be determined/bid-on). If you don't think Notre Dame will want to join this exclusive national high academic/athletic conference, under a similar ACC-type arrangement, guess again. .

I too expected the ACC to be raided 1st. oh well. Nice well developed rant on B1G football though.

As to Notre Dame: The golden domers will decline. The B1G wants ND - all in. No ACC-type arrangements. Why give up the best football seat in the house...only to become another Nebraska in the B1G? ND plays a national schedule, not regional as conferences do. They make plenty of money with NBC, they don't have to share. They make their own decisions - not compromising with 15-20 other schools - none of which have any common interests or love, for Notre Dame. There is a century of bad blood btwn the Big 10 and ND...ND hasn't lost their minds nor the memories. With all of this newfound promotion, ND will seek-and get-more money from NBC. They will stay with the ACC, for the time being, and watch the landscape. Smart move. Should the ACC implode, then make moves as necessary. Notre Dame has a trump card. US. They can stay indy and park all other sports back here in the BE.

ND has a trump card. They stay indy...and if necessary, move their non-football sports to the Big East.

For years Swarbrick has said that Notre Dame would remain independent until things got to the point where they no longer could. I think that point has arrived.

First, the money differential is just too great. The B1G is projected to be distributing $100 million per team annually after this latest expansion. Currently it’s at $54 million. Compare those numbers to Notre Dame’s $25 million from its NBC TV contract + $11 million from the ACC for its other sports for a total of $36 million. I don’t see how NBC comes up with enough money to make up the difference or even come close to doing that.

Second, the long term plan appears to be for the B1G and SEC to control college football by gobbling up all of the top revenue producing football schools. If each conference tops out at 24 members, they will each hold their own conference playoffs and the winners of the 2 leagues will play each other for the de facto national championship. Anyone not in one of these 2 leagues will become irrelevant to national championship competition.

Notre Dame will never give up the opportunity to compete for the national championship. So even if the money doesn’t convince them to accept an offer from the B1G, I believe that the altered national championship picture will convince them. They will try to wait things out, but as the dominoes fall, they will be forced to make the decision to accept the offer or be left out in the cold I don’t see that they will have much choice. It’s an offer they can’t refuse.

[Cheech]

The Big East now has no choice but to expand. Anyone who thinks they will stand pat doesn’t understand the financial landscape.There is ZERO Doubt,,,ZERO that UConn will move to a football conference during this shift. They are committed to making Football work and as you are all seeing even if it’s the ACC the money will be substantial. so Fox is driving the money behind the BIG Ten and they are not done yet as they take on ESPN. They will want games and inventory during the winter and will up the ante for the Big East. So as I Have said in by posts and now it’s about to happen …look for 3 to 4 schools added here in short order. You may not like the names of the schools but the league will need a larger profile especially with 3 schools that have been irrelevant for the past decade. Hang on boys here it comes…all bets are off.

[billyjack]

1. I agree with Git that Notre Dame stays independent.

2. The Big East doesn't need to expand, and won't expand right now, unless it's for Notre Dame, Gonzaga, or somehow Syracuse. I don't see Kansas being an option and they wouldnt be a good fit... not yet anyway (not sure their fans respect us or MSG and would screw up our identity and mojo).

3. Gonzaga for a 12th would work. And, if we needed a second western team (we don't), tea leaves tell me that it would be the San Francisco Dons (history, campus location, NBA arena nearby, destination city).

4. Again, we have no reason to expand right now. We have our open 12th slot available for quality over quantity at any time. And some good school may fall onto our laps after the football crackheads sort everything out. [by the way, i still like Dayton over Saint Louis and VCU (of these options), despite Flyers fans being annoying-- at least they want to join us enthusiastically and they sellout and travel].

5. Baseball wise-- i dont support a salary cap. MLB has a luxury tax which works fine. Tampa Bay competes cuz they have brains in their heads, unlike the Orioles' admin. The Yankees haven't won a WS since 2009, and the other NY and LA teams aren't always competitive. And remember, the Golden Age of baseball (1947 to 64, or 1921 thru 1964) had dominant NY teams. Heck, even the NY Knights won a pennant under Wilfred Brimley, c'mon.

[Django]

I was reading the Syracuse message board and their fans were discussing the possibility of pulling a UCONN (indy football) and actually wanted to join the Big East (it was about 4 posters and nobody in disagreement... no clue what the actual percentage of their fan base was for this). I was surprised but Syracuse makes the most sense* if they want to join (even though I hate them ). Pitt and BC are still prolly too much married to football.

*Yes, better than Gonzaga, St.L, or anyone else but ND, but I think ND will be in the B1G for sure now.

[billyjack]

I was reading the Syracuse message board and their fans were discussing the possibility of pulling a UCONN (indy football) and actually wanted to join the Big East (it was about 4 posters and nobody in disagreement... no clue what the actual percentage of their fan base was for this). I was surprised but Syracuse makes the most sense if they want to join (even though I hate them ).

There is a longshot scenario where this could happen, especially if UConn hoops gets dominant again (and SU hoops fans pine for the MSG days).

UConn needed its football to suck bad in order to shut their football fans up and save its hoops. Syracuse football has been really bad over the last 20 years... definitely a longshot and SU has a better football history than UConn, but hopefully the hoops fans revolt, lol.

[adoraz]

Braves payroll is nothing to sniff at...but payroll is only the most visible sign that a team has money. Less visible but just as important is a team's scouting infrastructure. Teams that spend money on scouting are better positioned for the long term success. When you can spend on players and spend on scouting like the Braves can do now, they are one of the "haves." Locking up Acuna and Albies with long term, below market contracts was very forward thinking on the Braves part. Their pitching is mostly young. Those two factors are why the Braves payroll was "only" 11th last year.

I went to a Pirates game earlier this year (trying to get to all MLB parks. Beautiful stadium, location, team history...Friday night game, beautiful weather. 12,000 fans.

Yeah that's true about the Braves generally being very well run, such as locking down Acuna/Albies and their scouting, but I'm not sure how their overall expenses compare with the top teams. The Nationals did win it all in 2019 and they have the 20th payroll out of 30, so it is still possible for smaller market teams to win, but I do agree it's certainly a lot more difficult.


Ahh nice to see our resident insider Cheech return. I forget which mid-major you're a fan of, but you did state earlier this year that the Big East would expand with a few teams after the season ended and implied they would be teams most here wouldn't want (so A10?). Also, Gonzaga wouldn't be one of them despite being the only team rumored to join the Big East during the last few months.

I imagine these A10 teams would've wanted this official the first day of the off-season given they would never have a shot at any other conference anyway (unlike a Kansas who will likely see how things play out)... so what's the holdup? Might want to check your source.

I do think there's a chance UConn leaves for a watered down ACC, but it's certainly not 100% as you believe. All of these conference moves have been about improving overall revenue distributions and UConn would only drag them down. Even a watered down ACC would have to focus on improving football to retain as much money as possible, so clearly UConn wouldn't be their first choice... or even second, third, or fourth (as we saw when the AAC was raided). I'm not saying it's impossible by any means, but it's mostly wishful thinking by some UConn fans at the moment. It's outdated thinking and goes against what we've seen in conference realignment during the past decade.

[gtmoBlue]

I haven’t followed football, of any sort - thanks Raiders/Nebraska - for over 20 years now.

But thank you football schools, you arrogant, greedy bastards. Without your predictable,
unrelenting march to hell, everything would stagnate. Thank you P6, P5, P3, uhh P2 and
Everyone else. Without your selfish, self centered, obsessiveness, my lil Cr8n would still
be in the MVC…toiling away the years in obscurity. Muchas gracias for the assistance.

Now, once & again, opportunity meets the prepared mind. Val…on your mark, get set, Go!
Old football- the helmetheads - only thinking of themselves, will errantly send opportunities
our way again. What the majority of you perceive to be the norm in sports is about to be torn
apart, is about to rearrange the night skies with the shrapnel strewn from earthly carnage.
New constellations, new guiding stars, a whole news sports starfield. Conferences, leagues,
and teams thought to be set in the firmament forever, suddenly upended and ejected in the
sports equivalent of a volcanic eruption. Thank you football.

Solving for football, schools mighty in other venues, get discarded like Christmas wrapping, get
tossed along with the bath waters. A synchronous moment in time for the prepared.

Eventually the P2/3 will break away. We’ll return to the era of multiple championships - one for them
and one for the restivus (the leftover 280 or so Div1 schools).

1926 - Dickinson System - 1936/40
1939 - Helm’s Foundation - 1982
1936 - AP Poll - 1998
1950 - UPI Poll - 1991 (Coaches Poll)
1950 - Coach’s Poll - current (USAToday-1991-1998)
1992 - Bowl Coalition/Alliance - 1997
1998 - Bowl Championship Series - 2014
2014 - College Football Playoff - current

Hoops
1939 - Helms Foundation - 1982 (retro champs back to 1901.)
1936 - AP - current
1938 - NIT tournament - 2005 (technically surpassed in the late 1970’s)
1939 - NCAA tournament - Definitive Champion since 1970’s
1950 - UPI (coaches poll) - 1991
1950? - Coaches (USAToday - 1991 - current)

[Jasper67]

I was reading the Syracuse message board and their fans were discussing the possibility of pulling a UCONN (indy football) and actually wanted to join the Big East (it was about 4 posters and nobody in disagreement... no clue what the actual percentage of their fan base was for this). I was surprised but Syracuse makes the most sense* if they want to join (even though I hate them ). Pitt and BC are still prolly too much married to football.

*Yes, better than Gonzaga, St.L, or anyone else but ND, but I think ND will be in the B1G for sure now.

Hard to imagine Syracuse doing this unless the ACC collapses. The GOR locks Members in until 2036. Maybe teams going to the B1G or SEC can buy their way out with the insane money being handed out by those 2 conferences. But Syracuse won’t be able to do that with Big East money.

[Jasper67]

The Big East now has no choice but to expand. Anyone who thinks they will stand pat doesn’t understand the financial landscape.There is ZERO Doubt,,,ZERO that UConn will move to a football conference during this shift. They are committed to making Football work and as you are all seeing even if it’s the ACC the money will be substantial. so Fox is driving the money behind the BIG Ten and they are not done yet as they take on ESPN. They will want games and inventory during the winter and will up the ante for the Big East. So as I Have said in by posts and now it’s about to happen …look for 3 to 4 schools added here in short order. You may not like the names of the schools but the league will need a larger profile especially with 3 schools that have been irrelevant for the past decade. Hang on boys here it comes…all bets are off.

I agree.

The problem is that any expansion needs to be built around teams that move the revenue needle. Who are those teams?

The Wall Street Journal did a financial analysis of college basketball programs a few years ago to develop a ranking of programs by financial value, which is where I think that an assessment of potential additions has to begin since this is all about money. There were only 3 basketball-first programs, which are not already in the Big East, in the top 100:

21. Dayton
39. Gonzaga
81. St. Louis

One other program which might be considered as basketball-first is UMass, which ranked #99.

[Django]

I was reading the Syracuse message board and their fans were discussing the possibility of pulling a UCONN (indy football) and actually wanted to join the Big East (it was about 4 posters and nobody in disagreement... no clue what the actual percentage of their fan base was for this). I was surprised but Syracuse makes the most sense* if they want to join (even though I hate them ). Pitt and BC are still prolly too much married to football.

*Yes, better than Gonzaga, St.L, or anyone else but ND, but I think ND will be in the B1G for sure now.

Hard to imagine Syracuse doing this unless the ACC collapses. The GOR locks Members in until 2036. Maybe teams going to the B1G or SEC can buy their way out with the insane money being handed out by those 2 conferences. But Syracuse won’t be able to do that with Big East money.

Good point, forgot about the ACC’s GOR