Conference Realignment: What Next?

[Xudash]

All financial indicators indicate college athletics has never been stronger. Y'all are a bunch of pessimists

Do a little research into the amount of student fees that subsidize most college athletic departments (i.e. outside probably the top 15 - 20 schools; the Ohio State, Texas and Alabama's of the world) and get back to us on your thoughts about the financial strength of college athletics, at least at the highest level for especially programs that field a football team.

In my lifetime I have seen college athletics do nothing but get larger. Bigger stadiums, tv deals, ticket prices etc. But somehow I am supposed to conclude the sport is dying vs minor league football?

You're not supposed to come to that conclusion at all. I don't think this is about football dying. This is about football consolidating, which is exactly what is going on, at least with respect to a program's ability to field a team that has a shot at a national championship, or not.

How did they get larger? They got larger primarily via media agreements that developed with cable television, sports-specific channels and fan appetite. The tradition-rich programs (e.g. Ohio State, Alabama, Texas, USC, ND, et al) took the developing money and stature and then turned it all into an arms race with respect to facilities and recruiting. The sport isn't dying for them. It can be nice to be huge, with a massive fan base and with a stadium that seats over 100k.

The sport is becoming problematic for any program that is not or will not make the B1G or SEC private clubs. The money gap will be staggering. As already noted, many FBS schools essentially run in the red, partially propped up by student fee subsidies. That's funding going into image - the "front porch" of a school, as some call it; marketing, if you will. It isn't going into academics.

College football isn't dying if you are a Buckeye fan or a fan of the Fighting Irish or you know how to "Hook 'em Horns." But ask a Syracuse fan or a Wake fan or a TCU fan if they think football might be shrinking, if not dying for them.

Once upon a time in the very near past we had the P6. The Big East was raided by the ACC and we ended up with the P5. For the most part, it was all still about approximately 64 teams and Notre Dame being distinguishable from the other FBS schools, including the vaunted AAC schools. Now we know we're headed for something less than where we've been, at least at some point. We could be headed to 40 schools and everyone else.

It's about shrinking, at least in terms of relevance, not necessarily dying, though some programs may call it a day or drop down to something less competitive.

[gtmoBlue]

DeltaV…

Great snippet of info on ACC/Clemson. Keep us in the loop on all
The juicy rumors n gossip. - seriously.

Clemson / FSU leaving is just a matter of time. Any news regarding UVA/UNC?

[Xudash]

It's a behind a paywall article, but what you are allowed to read of it makes an interesting point having to do with B1G and SEC expansion and where that might be headed for now:

https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/34195148/college-realignment-next-steps-acc-big-12-pac-12-scramble-amid-chaos.

I have been assuming that the B1G and SEC might go to 20 teams apiece. Maybe that is not correct. They may not get to 20 teams per super conference per the article, because additional teams beyond USC, UCLA, Texas and Oklahoma do not move the needle enough to justify the level of media payouts per school both conferences are targeting.

As access to the article fades away, it begins to offer a look into scenarios for how the Pac 12, Big 12 and ACC might maneuver to become the 3rd strongest conference.

Obviously, a big domino and pivot point has to do with what ND ends up doing. The B1G wants to swallow them whole. The SEC won't allow ND from being kept out of the playoff picture as a way of allowing ND to maintain its independence; as a way of keeping ND from having to run to the B1G. So, ND has the scales out, weighing tradition and independence against more money.

IMHO, respecting that the ACC may go on the clock until the mid-30's when its current media arrangements expire (a long but temporary stay of execution for some, if not all its programs), it suggests that the third strongest conference battle will come out of what transpires between the PAC and Big12, and with that result going up against the ACC. All this presumes that a program like Florida State or Miami or Clemson isn't worth the huge payout level and can't break free of the ACC anyway. Oregon and Washington? Well, it may be that USC and UCLA told the B1G "hell yes, but we don't want them coming with us."

Overall, perhaps the FBS group of 125 remains around that number, but the money clearly consolidates in favor of the B1G and SEC. Schools like Baylor and TCU and Okie State, etc. and the remaining Pac schools cry their eyes out as they see their athletic funding take a hit. Schools like Houston, UC, UCF and BYU think they've made it to a "power" conference.

As the old saying goes: the rich are about to get richer.

[Xudash]

Interesting perspective:

https://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2022/07/02/the_slow-motion_suicide_of_college_football_840502.html

It isn't out of the realm of possibility that, so long as the NCAAT remains in tact "as-is", that fans of college sports may be driven to, or at least strengthen their interest in, college basketball. Basketball is "settled on the court" but the larger point is that the TRADITION of it will be maintained.

[Jasper67]

As I see it, the relevance of all of this to the Big East has several aspects:

1. The Fox TV contract expires in 3 years and will receive the same kind of scrutiny as other TV contracts are now receiving. Is the Big East set in their relationship with Fox or will there be other networks making offers to the Big East?

2. Assuming that the relationship with Fox continues, what do they want? After all, it is the networks which have the final say on much of what is going on with realignment since they’re paying the bills.

3. What does the Big East want? They will obviously want a more lucrative TV deal. Everyone always dOES.. What are they willing to trade off to get more money?

4. Now that the B1G has broken the ice with the first coast-to-coast conference, will there be pressure from Fox to bring in Gonzaga, probably the only basketball-first program that can move the revenue needle. Would Gonzaga be willing?

5. Fox was a factor in bringing UConn back into the Big East, but will UConn stay? As the B1G and SEC expand, other leagues become depleted. Will thus create new opportunities for UConn outside the Bug East? Opportunities for top tier basketball but which also provide a home for their football program?

[gtmoBlue]

SSN - College Basketball
@SSN_CBB
Discussions are ongoing between Kansas and the Big East regarding KU hoops leaving for the BE should the B1G not extend an offer.
This would be massive for the Big East and could be enough to finally sway Gonzaga into joining.

These folks are pushing a KU to BE narrative. Not likely imho.

KU made $38M (2020) in the Big 12. Even with restructuring...(OU/UT out, Houston, BYU others in)... the conference's (B12) stock drops by 50% post UT/OU, but probably down to the $15-20M/year level.
Coming to the BE guarantees a drop in pay down to less than $10M - even with a new deal upcoming in 2024/25. What a great move on KU's part, volunteering to give up $28+million in revenues? Sure they will.

Twitter / social media folks stirring da pot...clickbait stories.

Besides, with a bit of patience, their are better realignment fish to fry up ahead.

[Jasper67]

SSN - College Basketball
@SSN_CBB
Discussions are ongoing between Kansas and the Big East regarding KU hoops leaving for the BE should the B1G not extend an offer.
This would be massive for the Big East and could be enough to finally sway Gonzaga into joining.

These folks are pushing a KU to BE narrative. Not likely imho.

KU made $38M (2020) in the Big 12. Even with restructuring...(OU/UT out, Houston, BYU others in)... the conference's (B12) stock drops by 50% post UT/OU, but probably down to the $15-20M/year level.
Coming to the BE guarantees a drop in pay down to less than $10M - even with a new deal upcoming in 2024/25. What a great move on KU's part, volunteering to give up $28+million in revenues? Sure they will.

Twitter / social media folks stirring da pot...clickbait stories.

Besides, with a bit of patience, their are better realignment fish to fry up ahead.

I think a scenario that is likely is that the B1G and SEC expand to the point where together they have all of the top revenue producing football programs under one of their 2 umbrellas. This would leave the other 3 P5 conferences shattered. I also think that a game with the B1G champion vs the SEC champion will become the de facto national football championship game. At this point the other football conferences will become irrelevant.

What the next likely scenario would be is that premier basketball schools which were left out of B1G/SEC expansion would look to form their own basketball centric league rather than joining an expanded Big East or sticking with their old conference mates. The core group around which to build such a league would be the following group of past national champions:

Duke
Kansas
Louisville
Syracuse
Baylor
UConn

If the Big East is going to look to expand to improve their revenue potential, they have to look at school like their current members. I don’t think that their current members are looking to go back to the old hybrid concept, nor do I think that schools with football like Kansas looking to a group of non-football schools for their future home. Any future BE expansion would only come from schools which can move the revenue needle. That list begins with Gonzaga if they’re willing to do what USC and UCLA have just done.

[billyjack]

I approved several posts on two threads by "Jasper" without reading too deeply into his commentary. I was intrigued about him maybe being a Manhattan College alum, so i figured i'd give him a shot. Hoping for some inside dope on Steve Masiello, lol.

[DeltaV]

What the next likely scenario would be is that premier basketball schools which were left out of B1G/SEC expansion would look to form their own basketball centric league rather than joining an expanded Big East or sticking with their old conference mates. The core group around which to build such a league would be the following group of past national champions:

Duke
Kansas
Louisville
Syracuse
Baylor
UConn

If the Big East is going to look to expand to improve their revenue potential, they have to look at school like their current members. I don’t think that their current members are looking to go back to the old hybrid concept, nor do I think that schools with football like Kansas looking to a group of non-football schools for their future home. Any future BE expansion would only come from schools which can move the revenue needle. That list begins with Gonzaga if they’re willing to do what USC and UCLA have just done.

Add Pitt, Cincinnati, and Memphis, and someone else (NC State? Wake? Ga Tech? All three?) And you're talking a pretty decent all sports conference. Reasonably geographic, balance of athletics and academics, and known names.

[Jasper67]

I approved several posts on two threads by "Jasper" without reading too deeply into his commentary. I was intrigued about him maybe being a Manhattan College alum, so i figured i'd give him a shot. Hoping for some inside dope on Steve Masiello, lol.

Thanks, dude.