GumbyDamnit! wrote:So let me play devil's advocate and paint a scenario that is not as rosy a picture for the BE...
Suppose KU, Northwestern, Vandy, Duke, Cuse, BC, Pitt, Cincy, Wake, L'ville all get left out of the SEC/B1G Superconference. Is there a scenario where they accept that they will not be in the ultimate FB arms race, and decide to become the pre-eminent BB-centric--with a FB twist--conference? Let's say they look at the landscape to find a couple other school to join them and want to solidify their product in an effort to garner a HUGE BB TV contract along with a smaller FB deal. There's UConn and Villanova sitting out there with a lot of juice, with football programs and 7 hoops NC's to their name... Nova connects Tobacco Road to NY & New England and could probably upgrade their FB a tick, easily. Then you've got a new 12 team conference with a whole lot of successful BB programs (that would fetch a pretty big TV contract IMO) that let's those schools park their Tier 2 football somewhere.
Not advocating for that to happen or think it will happen but in this new landscape of volatility, who knows what will happen.
Anything is possible but football / money has really been the driving force behind all decision this past decade. We've seen it with every conference that has expanded, and if anything it's only gone further in that direction (see: UConn to the Big East and the AAC additions).
What good would a 12 team regional football & basketball divided conference like that do (aka an AAC+)? They'd have zero stability and would be getting far fewer basketball bids per year than the two mega conferences, so they wouldn't be competing there either (this is all assuming the ACC gets poached and thus the B1G/SEC moves to 20+ teams). If they want to form a basketball mega league to compete with the B1G/SEC then I'd think at a minimum they'd need to add all or at least half of the Big East (UConn, Nova, Georgetown, possibly St. John's to solidify MSG, etc... of course all taking basketball-only $$$), and also try adding western teams like Kansas and Gonzaga. Even that though I think is unlikely as I'd be very surprised if they don't simply go after the best available football schools.
I've seen a lot of UConn fans on Twitter talking about the ACC, but realistically a depleted ACC would either go huge on basketball to compete directly with the B1G/SEC (above scenario by inviting many more basketball schools than just UConn and Nova) or go all in on football like the AAC did. Bet on the latter with the Big East forming a nationwide basketball conference in collaboration with Fox (and maybe ESPN?). Gonzaga would be the first addition and a few years after that it wouldn't surprise me to see some more teams like Kansas added. The networks would also be thrilled with this as teams with mediocre football like UConn wouldn't be vastly overpaid as they would be playing football in a Power league. Seems like a win for everyone.
That said, I really don't have a clue what will happen. Personally I'm not thrilled about these developments as I like the way things are. Almost would rather we just skip to the part where the B1G/SEC break off and invite select schools/conferences for basketball.