Conference Realignment: What Next?

[gtmoBlue]

Did you just say what I Think you just said? Nahhh, couldn't be.

So. If the SI article and GW11 comments are any indication, there's a Good Likelihood that the Administration of the Golden Domer's may
be amenable to switching conferences, up the road. Especially, if NIL, SEC breakaway, other money-centric moves gain momentum. Or if poaching other
high-end ACC schools (UNC, UVA, Fla St, etc.) takes place. Hmmm. I like this train of thought and the BEasts position as a landing spot.

by GoldenWarrior11 » Sun Apr 24, 2022 11:14 am

Xudash wrote:
https://www.si.com/college/2022/04/23/n ... n-1-change


Regardless, the ACC should be on watch. Their TV deal ends in the 2036. They also have a mixture of Publics/Privates, State/Metro schools, and football-first and basketball-first athletic departments with varying degrees of athletic focus. Schools like FSU, Clemson and North Carolina will not be able to stand by idly and see the SEC and B1G soon-to-be raking in 60+/70+ million annually in athletic television revenues. They will seek a jump when able, easily leaving behind others akin to Texas and Oklahoma.
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GoldenWarrior11

[GoldenWarrior11]

Did you just say what I Think you just said? Nahhh, couldn't be.

So. If the SI article and GW11 comments are any indication, there's a Good Likelihood that the Administration of the Golden Domer's may
be amenable to switching conferences, up the road. Especially, if NIL, SEC breakaway, other money-centric moves gain momentum. Or if poaching other
high-end ACC schools (UNC, UVA, Fla St, etc.) takes place. Hmmm. I like this train of thought and the BEasts position as a landing spot.

by GoldenWarrior11 » Sun Apr 24, 2022 11:14 am

Xudash wrote:
https://www.si.com/college/2022/04/23/n ... n-1-change


Regardless, the ACC should be on watch. Their TV deal ends in the 2036. They also have a mixture of Publics/Privates, State/Metro schools, and football-first and basketball-first athletic departments with varying degrees of athletic focus. Schools like FSU, Clemson and North Carolina will not be able to stand by idly and see the SEC and B1G soon-to-be raking in 60+/70+ million annually in athletic television revenues. They will seek a jump when able, easily leaving behind others akin to Texas and Oklahoma.
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GoldenWarrior11

An ND-BE reunion isn't impossible, but very unlikely in my eyes. ND can pick literally any conference in the country to join, and that league would open them with open arms. The marriage with the ACC is two-fold: 1) it gives them five OOC games annually, as well as the bowl tie-ins for football 2) it provides a large academic and elite Olympic sports affiliation for their sports. The reach that extends from Miami to Boston, with AAU schools like Georgia Tech, UNC, Duke, Virginia and BC, as well as strong academic schools in FSU, VA Tech, Syracuse, NC State and Wake, it is an ideal marriage for the Irish.

ND, despite being a Catholic school, is not as rooted as being a Catholic school as many or the BE schools (not unlike Georgetown). There are very little connections ND would have with current BE membership. There'd need to be a very large blowup for that to occur IMO.

[gtmoBlue]

Nice synopsis...But, not quite accurate. In a collegiate sports world as we know it today, your picture is well painted. However, that beautiful landscape loses much of its luster with one or two well placed chess moves.

ND cannot go anywhere/choose any conf. They only have the 5 other majors to choose from. When/if the B1G poaches 2 (or more) UVA & UNC...that removes the B1G from consideration as a home for ND. Could ND survive in a 12+1 ACC? Yes, as long as FSU/Clemson hang around. However, the TV money would take a big hit come 2036...if not sooner-given a potential protection clause favoring ESPN. If FSU/Clemson baleout, the ACC becomes another AAC.

The SEC is already at 16. No landing pad for ND there. If the SEC wants more, it’ll be Clemson & Fla St. Hmmm.

That leaves the PAC 12, Big12, & BE. All will be less money and only the BE will tolerate independent/semi-independent ND football. ND is a Gonzaga-like outlier in the PAC 12. A lot of WC junkets for football & hoops. They have a bit of history w USC/UCLA, little else.

Big 12 is at 12, next year to 14. No significant history with ND and the BIg 12 is not what it used to be in terms of stature, clout, or TV money.

We know the BE scenarios. If the B1G moves in order to regain dominance, the cart is upset again. ND could find itself an orphan.

[jbarajas0490]

Well it's all up to the B1G on if they expand sooner rather than later but once they do UCONN will be going to ACC or even the B1G. I can see B1G adding 2 ACC teams and the ACC replacing those teams with UCONN.

[adoraz]

Well it's all up to the B1G on if they expand sooner rather than later but once they do UCONN will be going to ACC or even the B1G. I can see B1G adding 2 ACC teams and the ACC replacing those teams with UCONN.

Nah, they'd be much, much more likely to take Big XII teams (or if they're unable to then the top AAC teams). We all know football drives these decisions and arguably every Big XII team is worth more than UConn.

Nobody wanted UConn for 10 years now, and 10 years ago they were a much more valuable brand in all 3 of their biggest sports (FB, MBB, WBB). The day they take UConn is the day they'd no longer be considered a Power conference (and at that point UConn might not leave).

Not sure how long it'll take people to realize these decisions have been based almost entirely on football for years now. Gonzaga can't find a major conference. AAC backfilled with UAB, UTSA, Rice, North Texas, Charlotte and Florida Atlantic over teams like Dayton and VCU.

[butlerguy03]

The BIG, for all its faults, does still keep academics at the core of what they do. North Carolina, Georgia Tech, and Virginia are the only real expansion candidates I could see that would also include high-level athletic histories and brand names. MAYBE Duke if Northwestern feels it needs a friend.

[adoraz]

The BIG, for all its faults, does still keep academics at the core of what they do. North Carolina, Georgia Tech, and Virginia are the only real expansion candidates I could see that would also include high-level athletic histories and brand names. MAYBE Duke if Northwestern feels it needs a friend.

That's possible, and yes the B1G is a bit of an exception, but those are:
1. Top 20-40 universities
2. In recruiting hotbeds
3. Halfway decent in football

UConn meanwhile is:
1. Ranked in the 60's (still very, very good, but not the same caliber as UNC, GT or UVA)
2. In a terrible recruiting location
3. Arguably the worst BCS football team with no signs of getting better

If UConn were in the same caliber for at least one of those three categories, then maybe there'd be an OK chance. I'm not saying it's impossible that UConn will leave for another conference, but I don't think it'll happen unless a conference is completely decimated... and even then I think the conference would stick to football schools to maximize TV value after losing their biggest brands. We just saw that with the Big XII and AAC in an attempt to keep their TV payouts.

End of the day if UConn thought a Power 5 invite was coming they wouldn't have joined the Big East, and recent conference realignment has just reconfirmed that an invite wasn't coming.

[Omaha1]

I’m confused. Does someone think UConn is getting an invite somewhere? And in the event that they do, what will they owe us?

[Husky_U]

Apparently it's UCLA & USC to the Big Ten...

Jon Wilner
@wilnerhotline
Source: USC and UCLA are planning to leave for the Big Ten as early as 2024. Move *has not been finalized* at the highest levels of power.
1:23 PM · Jun 30, 2022

[Xudash]

Apparently it's UCLA & USC to the Big Ten...

Jon Wilner
@wilnerhotline
Source: USC and UCLA are planning to leave for the Big Ten as early as 2024. Move *has not been finalized* at the highest levels of power.
1:23 PM · Jun 30, 2022

Perhaps a little too abstract of a thought, but think about Knute Rockne and ND travelling by train to play USC in LA and vice versa. That is now approaching 100 years ago. Think about the exposure for both schools back then. Move the "tape" forward to today and you have this announcement.

This is massive for all parties, but I have to believe that the B1G snagging Los Angeles as a viewing market, playing more games in the Rose Bowl, the new stadiums that are out there now - all of it will be accretive to that conference.

It is a rather extraordinary response to the SEC's Texas and OU acquisition, especially considering when you compare Norman, OK to Los Angeles, CA. Granted, the SEC also picks up Austin, TX and the massive following of the Longhorns, while the B1G literally locks into only one market with the two schools announced, but the population of greater LA is 12.5 million versus Austin, TX at 2.3 million and Norman, OK at 1.4 million.

You can argue different levels of passion, etc., but the POTENTIAL of this move is staggering.