Conference Realignment: What Next?

[adoraz]

UConn football was 1-11 this year (W over Yale) and their incoming recruiting class is ranked #113. Their 2023 class is empty.

I don't think the Big East is very concerned about UConn football earning an ACC invite anytime soon lol.

Reading news articles over the past year it's pretty clear the Big East does want to expand (as they should given the reasons stated above), but there's no obvious candidate(s) for them to add. I'd bet the Big East would want to be at 14 just so they aren't at a disadvantage relative to the other Power conferences, but adding 3 boring candidates wouldn't be a good look. I'm glad they're not rushing this.

I'm going to make a prediction that I'm not super confident about: by 2024 the Big East will add 3 teams and one of them will be Gonzaga. The other 2 won't be nearly as interesting (sorry GTMO), but Gonzaga will be the headliner and the other 2 will be more so filler just to keep pace with the rest of the Power conferences. They'll also split their contract between Fox, ESPN and CBS given all of the inventory. Doing all of this will basically guarantee a seat at the table for the next decade or two, even if a team like UConn eventually leaves.

[Jet915]

Yeah I agree expansion will happen. The SEC and B1G will gobble up more teams and we will need to keep our numbers up to keep pace. My guess is Gonzaga, St. Louis and Dayton.

[adoraz]

Yeah I agree expansion will happen. The SEC and B1G will gobble up more teams and we will need to keep our numbers up to keep pace. My guess is Gonzaga, St. Louis and Dayton.

Yep, exactly. Even if nothing else changes (I think there will be further realignment) the number of teams per conference will be:
SEC: 16
ACC: 15
Big Ten: 14
Big XII: 12 (probably 14 based on rumors)
Pac 12: 12
Big East: 11

The average number of P5 teams per conference would be 13.8 (assuming no expansion by Big XII or others... which again, is unlikely), so the other conferences would have roughly 3 more teams than us per conference. 14 would thus be the best number to keep pace. Imagine instead of sending 4-7 teams each year we send 6-9 instead (I think 2/3 of Gonzaga + 2 solid teams would make it). Flirting with 10/11 bids some years with the floor being 5 instead of 3 (2014, 2019 and 2021 were super close to having only 3 bids) would be much better for perception as well.

[gtmoBlue]

nice discussions fellas.

I don't think the B1G will tolerate a collegiate sports world where the SEC is calling the shots.
Call it pride, vanity, machismo, whatever you like, but they are also control freaks - like the SEC.
The Big Ten will move to a 16-team league as well. They will poach a couple of ACC teams to round
out the league.

The B12 was deemed an afterthought with the announcement of the departures of OU & TX. They are
fighting back and have already gone on record as to wanting a 14-team league. Don't kid yourselves...
expansion will occur.

The departure of 2 major teams from the league (ACC) will reduce the full membership down to 12.
The blatant raid by the B1G will prompt a similar panic to the one witnessed in the B12. Notre Dame will
opt to go it's own way and so may a couple of other less prominent ACC schools. The League will attempt
to apply 1st Aid and do what the B12 did - backfill with lesser schools. However, I expect the ACC to lose
3 full members and Notre Dame. Two to the B1G and 2 more to the Big East (incl ND). At this juncture the
schools to the Big East COULD BE - ND & S'cuse, ND & Pitt, ND & Duke. Doesn't matter. S'cuse & Duke both
"Move the Needle"!! Pitt- ho hum...

You can call me clairvoyant in 2023.

by 2024 this is the landscape...

B1G - 16 teams (Add UVA & UNC)
SEC - 16 teams (add TX & OU)
B12 - 12-14 teams (add Hou, BYU, UCF, & Cincy), poss: Memphis & Boise St as well.
BE - 14 teams (add Zags, S'cuse & ND - or Duke & ND)
Pac12 - 12 teams - no current additions?
ACC - 11 teams (add CUSA or AAC teams)

[DeltaV]

nice discussions fellas.



The departure of 2 major teams from the league (ACC) will reduce the full membership down to 12.
The blatant raid by the B1G will prompt a similar panic to the one witnessed in the B12. Notre Dame will
opt to go it's own way and so may a couple of other less prominent ACC schools. The League will attempt
to apply 1st Aid and do what the B12 did - backfill with lesser schools. However, I expect the ACC to lose
3 full members and Notre Dame. Two to the B1G and 2 more to the Big East (incl ND). At this juncture the
schools to the Big East COULD BE - ND & S'cuse, ND & Pitt, ND & Duke. Doesn't matter. S'cuse & Duke both
"Move the Needle"!! Pitt- ho hum...
)

No, I don't see this happening. Don't forget, ESPN and the mouse are invested in the ACC thriving. They're not going to let it get picked apart.

The only way the Big East gets schools like Syracuse to come back is if they decide to de emphasize football. Even if the ACC implodes, the former Big East football schools would probably make a football conference with the remainder. Pick up Temple, probably Cincinnati, maybe Buffalo, probably also try to poach UConn with the promise of big football money. And it would work.

Would it really be that bad? Another rival conference in the North East? It would mean something. Nova Temple, Xavier Cinci, Providence BC, St J Uconn. Yes, it's competition, but steel sharpens steel, right?

[kayako]

What does more teams get us, other than an unbalanced schedule?

I had posted this several pages ago about tourney credits, but I'll post it here again.

Given similarly seeded groups of teams, 8 out of 16 will likely outperform 6 out of 12. Let's assume that half the teams advance to the second round:

8 + 4 = 12 credits / 0.75 credit per team
6 + 3 = 9 credits / 0.75 credit per team

Equal so far, but 4 teams have better chance to advance to the S16, E8, etc, than 3 teams. And the 16 team conference is more likely to get 9th team in than 12 team conference does 7th team.

[gtmoBlue]

nice discussions fellas.

The departure of 2 major teams from the league (ACC) will reduce the full membership down to 12.
The blatant raid by the B1G will prompt a similar panic to the one witnessed in the B12. Notre Dame will
opt to go it's own way and so may a couple of other less prominent ACC schools. The League will attempt
to apply 1st Aid and do what the B12 did - backfill with lesser schools. However, I expect the ACC to lose
3 full members and Notre Dame. Two to the B1G and 2 more to the Big East (incl ND). At this juncture the
schools to the Big East COULD BE - ND & S'cuse, ND & Pitt, ND & Duke. Doesn't matter. S'cuse & Duke both
"Move the Needle"!! Pitt- ho hum...
)

No, I don't see this happening. Don't forget, ESPN and the mouse are invested in the ACC thriving. They're not going to let it get picked apart.

The only way the Big East gets schools like Syracuse to come back is if they decide to de emphasize football. Even if the ACC implodes, the former Big East football schools would probably make a football conference with the remainder. Pick up Temple, probably Cincinnati, maybe Buffalo, probably also try to poach UConn with the promise of big football money. And it would work.

Would it really be that bad? Another rival conference in the North East? It would mean something. Nova Temple, Xavier Cinci, Providence BC, St J Uconn. Yes, it's competition, but steel sharpens steel, right?

I know the feelin' Delta...

Here, these will help.

[GoldenWarrior11]

nice discussions fellas.



The departure of 2 major teams from the league (ACC) will reduce the full membership down to 12.
The blatant raid by the B1G will prompt a similar panic to the one witnessed in the B12. Notre Dame will
opt to go it's own way and so may a couple of other less prominent ACC schools. The League will attempt
to apply 1st Aid and do what the B12 did - backfill with lesser schools. However, I expect the ACC to lose
3 full members and Notre Dame. Two to the B1G and 2 more to the Big East (incl ND). At this juncture the
schools to the Big East COULD BE - ND & S'cuse, ND & Pitt, ND & Duke. Doesn't matter. S'cuse & Duke both
"Move the Needle"!! Pitt- ho hum...
)

No, I don't see this happening. Don't forget, ESPN and the mouse are invested in the ACC thriving. They're not going to let it get picked apart.

The only way the Big East gets schools like Syracuse to come back is if they decide to de emphasize football. Even if the ACC implodes, the former Big East football schools would probably make a football conference with the remainder. Pick up Temple, probably Cincinnati, maybe Buffalo, probably also try to poach UConn with the promise of big football money. And it would work.

Would it really be that bad? Another rival conference in the North East? It would mean something. Nova Temple, Xavier Cinci, Providence BC, St J Uconn. Yes, it's competition, but steel sharpens steel, right?

ESPN and the House of Mouse are invested in the SEC, first and foremost. It is their most lucrative property and their content ownership of the SEC goes far beyond just highly viewed college football games. ESPN was also invested, long-term mind you, with the Big 12 and Big East, and it spent a nanosecond deciding it was worth it to carve both properties up and become organ donors to the rich under the ESPN banner (SEC). The ACC/ESPN deal goes through the 2030's, but just like the movement it organized from the Big 12 to the SEC (Texas and Oklahoma), and the AAC to the Big 12 (Cincinnati, Houston and UCF), it continues to consolidate properties where the SEC is the mega-property, and other conferences become cheap, affordable, long-term content providers for ESPNU, ESPN2 and ESPN+. Behind the scenes, work has undoubtedly already been done to slowly plant the seeds for the big brand ACC programs to begin to think about taking the money from ESPN and leaving the ACC, as the SEC programs will be averaging double what the ACC programs will be getting in the coming years. In the end, especially with realignment, money always wins out. Always.

I don't see Syracuse returning, as there will be enough left-overs to create an all-sports Eastern league (it won't be a power conference though). The basketball schools will not get into bed with a faction of football schools again (UConn is the exception).

[billyjack]

Syracuse football is freakin horrible. What a joke that it keeps their hoops out of our annual Garden Party.

[gtmoBlue]

Well GW, regardless the ACC will get poached and implode. It's inevitable that the B1G will take
two of their top teams...probably UNC/UVA .

If S'cuse is out that leaves ND (whose football is independent) and Duke. I can live with those 2.