Conference Realignment: What Next?

[kayako]

The Olympic sports can be in another conference, you just need NCAA and conference approval to make it happen. Which would be likely in this case to avoid undue hardship on non revenue sports. The fox/BE bit was actually something i was told by a big east insider, lol. There are definitely rumblings about the fox deal. The move will definitely be affected by the tv deal and also a final agreement on where the olympic sports reside. I think you misinterpreted the part where we talked Jay Wright/Mark Few, we were actually agreeing it would be unlikely Nova would block GU out or pettiness because of that fact. I spent like 2 minutes saying how geography isnt the issue some make it out to be, so again we agree.

Hey, good on you to come back and clear things up with us. I like that you guys talk without constantly interrupting each other, so I had no trouble making it to the end. I was fairly certain that basketball alone couldn't be separated like football, but I stand corrected if the Zags can make it happen. It'd be a rare low-risk, high-reward type of move for both parties if it's only men's and women's basketball.

[shizzle898]

I do believe that this is going to happen. I think they are having very preliminary talks with one another. Gonzaga is probably also in contact with the NCAA to see if they can get a waiver to play in a different conference for baseball/softball/soccer that is more geography-friendly. I don't think it is going to happen for next year, but I do think by either 23 or 24, Gonzaga will be in the Big East. There were some embers here. Not necessarily a smoke billow. I fully believe conversations are ongoing but we are just at the beginning stages and someone opened their mouth.

[GoldenWarrior11]

Regardless of how realistic a Gonzaga addition may be for the Big East, it remains as clear as day that Val, the BE Presidents and our schools are committed to maximizing the league's value (and each of the member schools' value). Rumors of UConn's return to the Big East began as early as when the American formed; with each passing year, there continued to be reports and rumors of UConn and the Big East talking about another marriage. What that revealed is that even in discussions, relationships are being built and opportunities created. What I continue to see (between Gonzaga and the Big East) are two parties that prioritize men's basketball at the highest levels of college basketball and continue to seek ways of elevating their brand and placement within the sport's hierarchy. Both sides are very much viewed as "outsiders" and "outliers", as neither sponsor FBS P5 Football. In addition, Gonzaga being a Jesuit school (like Creighton, Georgetown, Marquette and Xavier), there is already a built-in peer network where those schools work together.

I do think talks have occurred between Gonzaga and the Big East; both sides would be foolish not to at least consider it (and determine what value Fox, or other networks, would place on the league's rights). Ultimately, I think the only way a potential marriage works is for both sides to get approval by the NCAA (which is likely a formality, since the NCAA is lacking true oversight and administration at the moment) to have Gonzaga join the Big East as a Men's Basketball-Only member (maybe include the Women's side as well, but even that is stretching it). Gonzaga would need to receive approval to park all of its remaining sports in the West Coast Conference, which I would not foresee a problem due to the lack of call-ups the WCC could legitimately consider (other than Seattle and Grand Canyon, there just aren't many Private West Coast programs available anymore).

As much as some here may get frustrated by the very idea of it, but I can guarantee that evaluations are being made about what the Big East's value is with other programs being added as well (like a SLU, a Dayton, a VCU, etc.). That doesn't mean that any are likely to be added, but all options should continue to remain on the table in terms of increasing value for the league and each of the teams. Nearly a decade into this incarnation of the Big East, the bar has been set; it remains a consistent major college basketball conference, capable of sending a majority of the league to the tournament annually (with a select number playing into the second weekend or beyond), proven to compete and be successful against the other major conferences, demonstrating strong fan support and remaining hosting the best conference tournament in the country. With the coaching hires this cycle, and the coaches that have been attempted to be poached before, the league has tremendously successful and proven coaches top-to-down. It is showing no signs of slowing down and will only continue to grow.

If it is determined that Gonzaga Men's Basketball can be allowed to join the Big East, and the value offered by Fox is appropriate, the league will jump all over it. I still think there's much work to be done regarding a conclusion, but - geography discarded - it is very much possible if the stars align. Just as it was prior to UConn returning, the Big East continues to function from a position of power, not needing to be reactionary. If it makes sense for both sides, we will see the Zags in the Big East; if it doesn't then the Big East will remain strong.

[Xudash]

Regardless of how realistic a Gonzaga addition may be for the Big East, it remains as clear as day that Val, the BE Presidents and our schools are committed to maximizing the league's value (and each of the member schools' value). Rumors of UConn's return to the Big East began as early as when the American formed; with each passing year, there continued to be reports and rumors of UConn and the Big East talking about another marriage. What that revealed is that even in discussions, relationships are being built and opportunities created. What I continue to see (between Gonzaga and the Big East) are two parties that prioritize men's basketball at the highest levels of college basketball and continue to seek ways of elevating their brand and placement within the sport's hierarchy. Both sides are very much viewed as "outsiders" and "outliers", as neither sponsor FBS P5 Football. In addition, Gonzaga being a Jesuit school (like Creighton, Georgetown, Marquette and Xavier), there is already a built-in peer network where those schools work together.

I do think talks have occurred between Gonzaga and the Big East; both sides would be foolish not to at least consider it (and determine what value Fox, or other networks, would place on the league's rights). Ultimately, I think the only way a potential marriage works is for both sides to get approval by the NCAA (which is likely a formality, since the NCAA is lacking true oversight and administration at the moment) to have Gonzaga join the Big East as a Men's Basketball-Only member (maybe include the Women's side as well, but even that is stretching it). Gonzaga would need to receive approval to park all of its remaining sports in the West Coast Conference, which I would not foresee a problem due to the lack of call-ups the WCC could legitimately consider (other than Seattle and Grand Canyon, there just aren't many Private West Coast programs available anymore).

As much as some here may get frustrated by the very idea of it, but I can guarantee that evaluations are being made about what the Big East's value is with other programs being added as well (like a SLU, a Dayton, a VCU, etc.). That doesn't mean that any are likely to be added, but all options should continue to remain on the table in terms of increasing value for the league and each of the teams. Nearly a decade into this incarnation of the Big East, the bar has been set; it remains a consistent major college basketball conference, capable of sending a majority of the league to the tournament annually (with a select number playing into the second weekend or beyond), proven to compete and be successful against the other major conferences, demonstrating strong fan support and remaining hosting the best conference tournament in the country. With the coaching hires this cycle, and the coaches that have been attempted to be poached before, the league has tremendously successful and proven coaches top-to-down. It is showing no signs of slowing down and will only continue to grow.

If it is determined that Gonzaga Men's Basketball can be allowed to join the Big East, and the value offered by Fox is appropriate, the league will jump all over it. I still think there's much work to be done regarding a conclusion, but - geography discarded - it is very much possible if the stars align. Just as it was prior to UConn returning, the Big East continues to function from a position of power, not needing to be reactionary. If it makes sense for both sides, we will see the Zags in the Big East; if it doesn't then the Big East will remain strong.

Spot on post, GW. Maximizing value, positioning and sustainability. Quiet conversations that are about finding a way forward, if possible.

[gtmoBlue]

git - my point is that it is going to be even more difficult for a school that is not presently a member of the Big East to become one, because the per school payout will be increasing via our next media agreement.

I only hope that you are right with respect to “times two.”

Our next contract is in late 2024 - 2025. Plenty of time for the Zags, Notre Dame, and Carleton to get on board before then.

[Depaulof89]

Problem with Gonzaga is if they want to have a 6 pm game or 7 that will be starting at 10 or 11 our time. Jet lag is rough.

[Xudash]

git - my point is that it is going to be even more difficult for a school that is not presently a member of the Big East to become one, because the per school payout will be increasing via our next media agreement.

I only hope that you are right with respect to “times two.”

Our next contract is in late 2024 - 2025. Plenty of time for the Zags, Notre Dame, and Carleton to get on board before then.

git - - I believe we are rumbling down the same path here, heading towards the same conclusion. I believe GoldenWarrior11 is spot on with his post - that Val, et al are very much focused on maximizing conference and individual member values when it comes to all of this. Competitive positioning of the Big East brand for the long-term, solidified by strong member institutions.

Now, let's take your assertion that we are headed for a media agreement that will result in a per school payout of $8mm+. I have no handle on that; I'm assuming you're right about that. I know we have at least a few other posters here who have media experience and who are probably in position to make an educated guess as to what is possible, given the circumstances and facts as they presently exist. Nonetheless, let's say we are heading towards that per school payout figure.

The point is that it would be one thing for Fox to agree to add School A, B or C at the original $4mm 2013 newbie per school payout level, but we already believe "$4mm" isn't happening, especially with our performance and with UCONN's addition. It becomes an entirely new thing to consider which prospective new programs warrant an $8mm+ payout.

Look at what happened the first time around, with respect to the schools that were acceptable to Fox at the $4mm level. The list of prospective available programs back then was not exactly extensive. Otherwise, had there been 5 slam dunk prospective program additions for the C7 at the time of the NBE's formation, wouldn't we already be at 12 (i.e. Fox having allowed for the plus-two where 10 was otherwise settled upon)?

UCONN was a no brainer to take us to 11.

Now we're discussing the possibility of expansion from a position of absolute strength. And that will come with talking about adding School A, B and/or C where the payout per school has moved to $8mm+. The pool of candidates will obviously shrink for that exercise.

Of course, in addition to justifying an $8mm+ payout per school, a prospective program will have to be available and will have to make sense, in every regard, to the Big East.

IF GW11 is right - and I believe he is absolutely right - then Hurdle One for any prospective program is for it to meet Fox's requirements for warranting the payout. Hurdle Two is availability and mutual interest. Hurdle Three is a mop up of anything that remains in the way of finalizing the entry path for the new member.

Notre Dame certainly covers H1. I would think that Gonzaga might be able to cover H1. I'm intrigued by your Carleton idea, but I'm not sure how it would slot into all this.

Otherwise, TIME may or may not allow for the opportunity to clear the other two key hurdles for certain desired programs.

IF we are perfectly safe at 11 (i.e. if other reasons for expansion like conference size do not prevail), then we do, in fact, have time. We move forward with an expectation of an even bigger media payday in the near future, which will only add to the strength of the conference overall. The quiet conversations can take place - they can continue. Then we'll see what happens, but expecting that whatever will happen will most likely be much more good than possibly bad.

Last comment: We certainly appear as though we are grinding our way towards a world where the B1G and the SEC will dominate the collegiate sports landscape in many regards. I tend to believe that the Big12's foundation, in particular, will move to a sand base once Texas and Oklahoma leave for the SEC. The meltdown won't be immediate, but it will be difficult for the Big 12 to compete at the highest level over time.

[gtmoBlue]

Last go-round the FF for expansion was: Roughly $150K/gm lowball figures.

Xavier: Great History. Consistent Strong performance. Good Region. Strong NCAA Success.
Butler: Ave History. Strong Recent performance. Good Region. Strong Recent NCAA Success.
Lil Cr8n: Great History. Consistent Above Average performance. Poor Region. Ave NCAA Success.
Dayton: Above Ave History. Consistent Above Average performance. Good Region. Above Avg NCAA Success.

Everyone thought Dayton was the pick.

It's just my opinion...but Cr8n & Butler were not up to Spec (ifications) irt $4 Mill on July 2013 signing.


This time around... expecting a per game figure around $300k. (in looking at the numbers this is highly optimistic on our part. See bottom)
By 2025 both these figures below could be lowball figures for top-tier content.

$1B over 10 years,
then $100M/year breaks out to $303k+/per game payout.

11 schools = $9.09M/yr
12 " = $8.33M/yr
14 " = $7.143M/yr


If $1.5B for 12 yrs contract, then
$125M/year breaks out to $379K/per game.

11 Schools = $11.4M/yr
12 " = S10.4M/yr
14 " = $8.930M/yr

Exp: $400k/gm = $132M (11 teams), $144M (12 Teams), & $168 (14 temas)
Avgs out to $12M/yr/school

UConn: Great BE History. Consistent strong performance. Good Region. Strong NCAA Success. (already in the BE)
Zags: Ave History, Strong recent performance. Poor Region. Strong Recent NCAA Success.
Notre Dame: Great BE History. Consistent Above Avg performance. Good Region. Ave NCAA Success.
Carleton: Excellent Hoops History. Consistent Strong performance. Good Region. 16 Canadian National Championships (incl 2021-22)
(2 canadian schools...Carleton and McGill...routinely beat the US div 1 schools who take their foreign trip to Canuckland.)

ND hoops is supposedly making in the neighborhood of $6-7 Mill with the ACC. Seems a bit high as Hoops is a max 20% of payouts.

Notre Dame
In 2013, NBC Sports Group announced a 10-year contract extension to televise Irish football games. The extension began in 2016
and will run through the 2025 season. The deal reportedly pays Notre Dame $15 million annually.

ACC paid out -

ACC$5The league’s 20-year top-tier deal with ESPN runs through 2036. It pays about $240 million annually, meaning each of the 14 schools gets about $17 million.

20% of $17M is $3.4 Mill. Averaging the reported 2 figures (7 mill, 3.4 mill) comes to a reasonable $5.2 Mill on the current ACC contract. Joining the BE would be a Hoops raise for ND.

Joining the BE is a big raise for all involved. ND, Zags, UConn (Upgrade from old AAC contract), and Carleton, all receive a substantial revenue boost. Just like last round. It should be noted that the
so-called C7 also benefitted from said boost by Fox Sports, as they had been lowballed in the OBE being non-football schools.

Carleton MAY BE the lil Cr8n of this group. University is 1st Rate. Hoops Pedigree is unquestioned, although some would debate whether Div 1 or not. I say it is.


Figures used are estimated TV only. Other revenues not included.
https://www.on3.com/news/conference-tv- ... -football/

B1G got a $2.64B/6 year deal. Hoops accounts for approx 20% or $528M/6 years.
That works out to $88M/year for hoops. 14 schools or 6.285M/yr/school. ($210K/gm).

A 2025 max may well be $250K to $300K/per game. (14 team BE)
$250K x 420=105M/year or 7.5M/school/year. $1.05B/10 year contract/$1.26B 12 year contract.
$300K x 420=126M/year or 9M/school/year. $1.26B/10 year contract / $1.512B 12 year contract.

[admin]

Matt Norlander of CBS Sports wrote a very good piece on the future of Gonzaga basketball and how the Big East could be a factor. Worth your time.

So, what about this: a nonconference scheduling alliance between Gonzaga and the Big East. If the Big East can't offer more than a pair of games, then maybe Gonzaga goes bigger and tries to do a two-fer with the Big East and the Big 12. It would serve all parties and improve college basketball's product. It sure as hell would make January and February more compelling. What Notre Dame and the ACC are to football, Gonzaga and the Big East (and/or Big 12) could be to college hoops. Why those two leagues? The Big East will soon have the fewest members (11) of any power conference. The Big 12 will soon go from 10 to 12 (and might be at 14 for two lame-duck seasons with Oklahoma and Texas), but it's likely to be a more amenable partner than the Pac-12.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... or-big-12/

[kayako]

Matt Norlander of CBS Sports wrote a very good piece on the future of Gonzaga basketball and how the Big East could be a factor. Worth your time.

So, what about this: a nonconference scheduling alliance between Gonzaga and the Big East. If the Big East can't offer more than a pair of games, then maybe Gonzaga goes bigger and tries to do a two-fer with the Big East and the Big 12. It would serve all parties and improve college basketball's product. It sure as hell would make January and February more compelling. What Notre Dame and the ACC are to football, Gonzaga and the Big East (and/or Big 12) could be to college hoops. Why those two leagues? The Big East will soon have the fewest members (11) of any power conference. The Big 12 will soon go from 10 to 12 (and might be at 14 for two lame-duck seasons with Oklahoma and Texas), but it's likely to be a more amenable partner than the Pac-12.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... or-big-12/

A lot more reasonable than BE vs. WCC challenge ideas. But Norlander doesn't realize that Villanova can't do this. How many "top" programs are capped at 15 home games per season? Even top A10 programs host 16 home games! But that's where Villanova's at because Jay Wright is loyal to a fault to the Big 5 charity and the Big East conference. But he can't just commit to another scheduling agreement because he has big heart. He literally has run out of candies to give out, unless he has lost his mind and is willing to play even lower number of home games like Texas Southern. If Marquette, Creighton, etc., wants to work something out with Gonzaga, sure, why not. Just don't expect Villanova to be very eager.