Conference Realignment: What Next?

[MUBoxer]

Please understand the financials not what your heart says.

Please point out where in my post I was speaking from my heart. I have an MBA in Finance, so yes I do of course look at this stuff from a financial standpoint. That's why I was one of the few St. John's fans who wanted UConn back. UConn helps our league in terms of TV negotiations and Tournament units.. aka revenue per school. You seem to not realize that units are split equally by school, so a team like St. Louis (or nearly anyone else) would've hurt our payout per school over this past decade given they've received fewer units than the average Big East school. I'm not holding my breath for another Dayton Elite 8 run anytime soon.

And yes, I did read your entire post. I will admit that I don't have access to the same numbers that the Big East or Fox do, but neither do you. Maybe inventory is super important to Fox and perhaps Dayton's metrics are stronger than I've guessed. I don't believe that's the case, but I haven't seen any strong argument here favoring Dayton besides some attendance figures. Trust me, Dayton would not help St. John's attendance much. Dayton is totally unnecessary as far as the BET attendance is concerned. Dayton fans need to start talking hard numbers in regards to TV ratings, that is what the league is interested in.

To be fair to Dayton they probably would've had another E8 if it weren't for Covid (of course if you ask them they would have 3 championships some how)

But yeah Daytons a strong brand, but they're also needless when your strongest argument is "we'll boost DePaul, SJU and Georgetown's attendance!"

[GoldenWarrior11]

As long as we continue to have the round robin, we just cannot have programs that - in a given year, not historically - act as conference anchors. This year, it is Georgetown. They are currently #212 in NET, which means they provide negative value when any conference team plays them (win or loss). If a BE team loses to Georgetown, it severely hurts their resume. Now, Georgetown will be back (hopefully next year with a new head coach). But, as long as we play everyone twice in a given year, the threat of one of our programs being WAAAAY down and hurting the rest persists.

Now, for argument's sake, Davidson, VCU, SLU and UD are all top-80 programs in the NET. Conference records remain a zero-sum game, but if the BE had any one of those teams as #12, the conference's collective resume improves. Those four programs have also consistently been in the top-75 in NET the past several years.

Stever presented it on the other site a while back, but moving to 12 teams also increases the likelihood of an additional bid and, most importantly, higher average seeds (annually), even if ever so slightly. The different in some of our 5-seeds getting to 4-seeds, or better, would be huge. 12 should be the optimal number for our conference, even if it eliminated the round robin. The reality is that many of us play each other up-to three times, including the BET. If we move to 12-teams, while keeping the 20-game schedule, only two opponents become singular. We can optimize our schedule so that the top-half (projected) always plays each other twice, while preventing the projected bottom from playing the top twice.

Bottom line, we should move to 12. Who 12 will continued to be debated. There is no perfect candidate, so whomever the 12th member inevitably becomes should be a school that checks most of the boxes. There are a number of available schools that do exactly that.

[stever20]

As long as we continue to have the round robin, we just cannot have programs that - in a given year, not historically - act as conference anchors. This year, it is Georgetown. They are currently #212 in NET, which means they provide negative value when any conference team plays them (win or loss). If a BE team loses to Georgetown, it severely hurts their resume. Now, Georgetown will be back (hopefully next year with a new head coach). But, as long as we play everyone twice in a given year, the threat of one of our programs being WAAAAY down and hurting the rest persists.

Now, for argument's sake, Davidson, VCU, SLU and UD are all top-80 programs in the NET. Conference records remain a zero-sum game, but if the BE had any one of those teams as #12, the conference's collective resume improves. Those four programs have also consistently been in the top-75 in NET the past several years.

Stever presented it on the other site a while back, but moving to 12 teams also increases the likelihood of an additional bid and, most importantly, higher average seeds (annually), even if ever so slightly. The different in some of our 5-seeds getting to 4-seeds, or better, would be huge. 12 should be the optimal number for our conference, even if it eliminated the round robin. The reality is that many of us play each other up-to three times, including the BET. If we move to 12-teams, while keeping the 20-game schedule, only two opponents become singular. We can optimize our schedule so that the top-half (projected) always plays each other twice, while preventing the projected bottom from playing the top twice.

Bottom line, we should move to 12. Who 12 will continued to be debated. There is no perfect candidate, so whomever the 12th member inevitably becomes should be a school that checks most of the boxes. There are a number of available schools that do exactly that.

You nailed it on the other site- this year would be a prime test of the impact of the DRR on bids/seeds. Conference did so well OOC that it really made it like that.

[Xudash]

As long as we continue to have the round robin, we just cannot have programs that - in a given year, not historically - act as conference anchors. This year, it is Georgetown. They are currently #212 in NET, which means they provide negative value when any conference team plays them (win or loss). If a BE team loses to Georgetown, it severely hurts their resume. Now, Georgetown will be back (hopefully next year with a new head coach). But, as long as we play everyone twice in a given year, the threat of one of our programs being WAAAAY down and hurting the rest persists.

Now, for argument's sake, Davidson, VCU, SLU and UD are all top-80 programs in the NET. Conference records remain a zero-sum game, but if the BE had any one of those teams as #12, the conference's collective resume improves. Those four programs have also consistently been in the top-75 in NET the past several years.

Stever presented it on the other site a while back, but moving to 12 teams also increases the likelihood of an additional bid and, most importantly, higher average seeds (annually), even if ever so slightly. The different in some of our 5-seeds getting to 4-seeds, or better, would be huge. 12 should be the optimal number for our conference, even if it eliminated the round robin. The reality is that many of us play each other up-to three times, including the BET. If we move to 12-teams, while keeping the 20-game schedule, only two opponents become singular. We can optimize our schedule so that the top-half (projected) always plays each other twice, while preventing the projected bottom from playing the top twice.

Bottom line, we should move to 12. Who 12 will continued to be debated. There is no perfect candidate, so whomever the 12th member inevitably becomes should be a school that checks most of the boxes. There are a number of available schools that do exactly that.

Isn't the main box about being accretive to the media agreement? I would think that JOB ONE for the leadership of the conference is to optimize the media agreement, especially if it is reasonable to expect the BE to attract at least 5 bids to the NCAAT in most years. In other words, the payout per school from any change to the present has to be positive, period, end of story. If seeding for any given year takes a nominal hit, so be it. Georgetown - of all programs - would seem to be an anomaly with respect to its level of slippage. If an added team dilutes the per school payout under the media agreement and boosts seeding positions relatively here and there, I'm not sure the presidents will come away with a warm feeling over such an outcome. Besides, our NET rankings have not been an accute issue with the conference in most years.

I don't believe we ever got wind of what the payout per school is now, under the existing, modified contract with Fox, with UCONN back in the fold. Let's assume that it was simply trued up for UCONN's inclusion to match the original per school payout. What could possibly happen next in terms of the next media agreement with UCONN fully in the mix? Are we a more valuable property now? Will the new deal increase? If those questions are answered "Yes", then it will be even harder to justify the addition of an existing mid-major to the BE.

[Django]

Definitely don’t like 12 for the sake of 12. If Notre Dame or some home run was a candidate ok, but I’d like to continue to be like Spinal Tap’s amplifier. This conference goes to 11!!!

[Omaha1]

Definitely don’t like 12 for the sake of 12. If Notre Dame or some home run was a candidate ok, but I’d like to continue to be like Spinal Tap’s amplifier. This conference goes to 11!!!

Agree. 11 works.

[XUFan09]

Well yeah Boston is obvious the outlier of missing markets that logically make sense (unless you want Buffalo!) But Detroit is for sure one of the major ones. I do agree with your other post that Detroit Mercy isn't feasible, just was more commenting on the "wait and see" approach. I do think you aren't giving Belmont enough credit. I'd say due to their conference the only game you should really look at as a comp to what type of attendance they'd get is the Murray State game. Beyond that, they're bringing in trash that I wouldn't go see either. Remember Butler skyrocketed from Horizon league to BE in no time, Belmonts now in the MVC which is the next tier. I'd wait to see what type of attendance they receive next year before writing them off.

As far as SLU goes, I have to ask have you been to St Louis? It's not like every other city in the Big East. It's the epitome of "urban decay" they have soulard and ballpark village (not relevant for basketball), everything else is literally falling apart, especially downtown where it was so bad they thought "let's take this massive vacant building and build a playground because nobody on earth wants to come to downtown St. Louis otherwise"

Butler had just went to back-to-back national championships and, let's face it, was a screaming geographic fit at a time of need, while Belmont's never once been to the second round of the NCAA tournament. The Bruins have done a good job of beating up on one of the worst conferences in D1, but SLU is a dramatically better fit in every way regardless of how you may personally feel about Saint Louis as a city.

Not my personal feeling, they rank as the top major city for population loss, one of the highest for job loss, 4th highest crime per capita. My personal opinion where it doesn't fit is from having been to every city in the Big East (UConn not included, but have been to the markets in consideration) and noticing that one of these things is not like the others.

You might look at a map and some basketball relevance and think it's a good idea, but it's not a place that is going to grow local fandom, or be a positive experience for alumni traveling to road games.

St. Louis City is a distinct locality from St. Louis County, a separation that is untrue for most major cities. The independent cities in Virginia and then St. Louis are pretty much the exception to the rule. Generally the locality at which metrics like these are done is at the county level, so when people talk about a city's statistics, they really mean the county-wide statistics (e.g. Cook County, not Chicago). If one looks at most midsize cities, especially in the Midwest, it's easy to imagine how their metrics would worsen considerably if statistics were only based on the central urban space. So, it's rather deceptive to cite such statistics for St. Louis without major caveats, before even getting into how exaggerated your description of St. Louis is. You seem to have some kind of weird hate boner for St. Louis, and I'm speaking as someone who doesn't want SLU added.

[XUFan09]

Okay, so you forced me into this post. Without dismissing take the time to read. Please understand the financials not what your heart says. The Last post about INVENTORY is spot on! The sports stations lost big money the last 2 years and they are all seeking more games to put on. For example watch the Drexel /Northeastern game last nite… 3 different Gambling sites did commercials during the game. Similar to College football Bowl games who may seem stupid or meaningless with teams at 500 playing it’s about the gambling and inventory. The new gambling sites are buying out every game they can …INVENTORY…the network makes money and do the schools and conferences.
The next phase is NCAA units, the more schools that get in the more NCAA money gets shared and that can be significant. In CBB attendance is very very important more so than other sports. The Gate can mean a lot, so if your negative about a school like UD , consider this. When they travel to DePaul..GT..St John or Seton Hall the buildings will have a significant increase in attendance. Other than Seton Hall the other 3 can’t fill the building even with a team like Nova coming in. Simply take a look at DePaul when Nova came in. Now hang in….the most important can be what a school is willing to pay or give up to get into a conference. With the right check Presidents minds can be opened and or changed. There are schools that can and are willing to …buy in… Val will want the right set up to negotiate a new TV contract. Don’t get hung up on the name on the jersey, The GT..DePaul St John don’t mean what it did..hopefully they can get better. But there are or is a school who can make it a good financial fit for the conference… again it’s all about the money. Look The Big East is a terrific brand but changes have to come to keep up.Cash is King.

No one forced you into a post, you weirdo.

[XUFan09]

Definitely don’t like 12 for the sake of 12. If Notre Dame or some home run was a candidate ok, but I’d like to continue to be like Spinal Tap’s amplifier. This conference goes to 11!!!

Same thoughts!

[adoraz]

As long as we continue to have the round robin, we just cannot have programs that - in a given year, not historically - act as conference anchors. This year, it is Georgetown. They are currently #212 in NET, which means they provide negative value when any conference team plays them (win or loss).

That's not necessarily true. Just this week for instance, St. John's beat a much worse Georgetown team (St. John's was home), but we rose a few spots in NET because we won by 19. #6 Villanova destroyed #131 Butler (Nova was home), and the next day Nova rose to #3 and Butler fell to #146. How teams play matters even if exact margins no longer do, and if top Big East teams blow out bottom feeders then they can maintain or improve upon their NET. I agree about bad losses potentially being an issue, but the Big East is in better shape than most conference there regardless. St. John's only has a couple of Q4 conference games and a lot of Q1 opportunities.