Conference Realignment: What Next?

[stever20]

I find it hilarious that #87 Dayton fans are lobbying for their inclusion in a league with 4 ranked teams and 6/7 likely bids this year. But hey, at least to their credit they are passionate enough to post here. Haven't seen many St. Louis or Belmont fans on HLOH (likely because none of them think they belong in this league... if even they don't then why would anyone here?).

As I've said many times, the only available team that I'd take right now is Gonzaga. No other team even comes close.

2 questions to ask:
1. Would Dayton/St. Louis/VCU/etc. increase TV payouts per school? I find that incredibly hard to believe.
2. Would anyone here want to replace several of their Big East games each year (chosen to random) with teams like Dayton or St. Louis? Just for example, replace Villanova (H) with Dayton (H), replace Xavier (A) with Dayton (A), replace Georgetown (H) with St. Louis (H) and replace Providence (A) with St. Louis (A)? Maybe once in a blue moon when Dayton is ranked top 10 or whatever, but 95% of the time Dayton/St. Louis/VCU/Belmont/Richmond/etc. matchups would be downgrades vs the average Big East school. I'd even prefer to play bottom feeder Georgetown most years over Dayton because Georgetown has much more historical significance for St. John's fans. Also, keep in mind that with more teams all 11 of us would have lower odds of winning the BET. Winning the BET was huge for Georgetown (and the league) last year.

I'm really struggling to come up with a reason that anyone outside of Gonzaga would help this league, and Gonzaga of course has location issues. For now I see no reason to expand unless Gonzaga can work or a Power team becomes available (unlikely).

Only thing would be the # of games for Fox would go up some.
right now there would be 110 conference games
expand to 12 and you'd have 120 conference games. Add in the extra 6-7 OOC games and you're adding 15 or so total.

plus then Fox has on the weekend their choice of 6 games.

Also would make it easier to do 2 packages if the league prefers and split things up. If they felt like they needed to get back on ESPN some.

[Hall2012]

I find it hilarious that #87 Dayton fans are lobbying for their inclusion in a league with 4 ranked teams and 6/7 likely bids this year. But hey, at least to their credit they are passionate enough to post here. Haven't seen many St. Louis or Belmont fans on HLOH (likely because none of them think they belong in this league... if even they don't then why would anyone here?).

As I've said many times, the only available team that I'd take right now is Gonzaga. No other team even comes close.

2 questions to ask:
1. Would Dayton/St. Louis/VCU/Belmont/Richmond/etc. increase TV payouts per school? I find that incredibly hard to believe.
2. Would anyone here want to replace several of their Big East games each year (chosen to random) with teams like Dayton or St. Louis? Just for example, replace Villanova (H) with Dayton (H), replace Xavier (A) with Dayton (A), replace Georgetown (H) with St. Louis (H) and replace Providence (A) with St. Louis (A)? Maybe once in a blue moon when Dayton is ranked top 10 or whatever, but 95% of the time Dayton/St. Louis/VCU/Belmont/Richmond/etc. matchups would be downgrades vs the average Big East school. I'd even prefer to play bottom feeder Georgetown most years over Dayton because Georgetown has much more historical significance for St. John's fans. Also, keep in mind that with more teams all 11 of us would have lower odds of winning the BET. Winning the BET was huge for Georgetown (and the league) last year.

I'm really struggling to come up with a reason that anyone outside of Gonzaga would help this league, and Gonzaga of course has location issues. For now I see no reason to expand unless Gonzaga can work or a Power team becomes available (unlikely).

It would just be about creating more inventory for Fox. There's another "benefit" of expanding the league's footprint, but I'm not sure how much that really adds.

[adoraz]

Yeah I actually meant to add in my post that additional inventory would be an advantage, but if it is being diluted with teams worth less than the average Big East team then I don't see how that'd benefit the Big East. I don't think there is a magic number of games needed to break into 2 TV packages, for instance.

Let's say for example that Dayton would be ranked #8 in Big East TV viewership, VCU #10 and St. Louis #13 (out of 14). Then you'd have to consider that 5/6 conference games for each current Big East team would be replaced with those matchups every year. A few would be big, such as Xavier vs Dayton, but overall seems it'd do more harm than good. Also, I think Fox is established enough where they don't necessarily need more TV inventory, especially if it is being downgraded (on average).

Going back to Gonzaga, perhaps they'd be ranked #3 or so (behind Villanova and UConn). That's why I could see them joining.

[Cheech]

Okay, so you forced me into this post. Without dismissing take the time to read. Please understand the financials not what your heart says. The Last post about INVENTORY is spot on! The sports stations lost big money the last 2 years and they are all seeking more games to put on. For example watch the Drexel /Northeastern game last nite… 3 different Gambling sites did commercials during the game. Similar to College football Bowl games who may seem stupid or meaningless with teams at 500 playing it’s about the gambling and inventory. The new gambling sites are buying out every game they can …INVENTORY…the network makes money and do the schools and conferences.
The next phase is NCAA units, the more schools that get in the more NCAA money gets shared and that can be significant. In CBB attendance is very very important more so than other sports. The Gate can mean a lot, so if your negative about a school like UD , consider this. When they travel to DePaul..GT..St John or Seton Hall the buildings will have a significant increase in attendance. Other than Seton Hall the other 3 can’t fill the building even with a team like Nova coming in. Simply take a look at DePaul when Nova came in. Now hang in….the most important can be what a school is willing to pay or give up to get into a conference. With the right check Presidents minds can be opened and or changed. There are schools that can and are willing to …buy in… Val will want the right set up to negotiate a new TV contract. Don’t get hung up on the name on the jersey, The GT..DePaul St John don’t mean what it did..hopefully they can get better. But there are or is a school who can make it a good financial fit for the conference… again it’s all about the money. Look The Big East is a terrific brand but changes have to come to keep up.Cash is King.

[Omaha1]

So any school added would bring a bump in inventory. FS1 gets all of the Big East home games already so we’re only talking about adding a small number of games. Not worth diluting the payout in almost any case unless Fox ponies up a lot more money and they aren’t doing it for Dayton. Therefore your argument is that school presidents are going to change the membership of their league simply in the hope that Dayton fans might buy a couple of hundred tickets once a year at 3 or 4 nearby schools? MSG is always sold out so they don’t help there.

It’s just such a ridiculous premise that a couple of Dayton fans just won’t let go of. Why can’t you just enjoy the A10 and try to win that league? Leave us alone.

[Hall2012]

Okay, so you forced me into this post. Without dismissing take the time to read. Please understand the financials not what your heart says. The Last post about INVENTORY is spot on! The sports stations lost big money the last 2 years and they are all seeking more games to put on. For example watch the Drexel /Northeastern game last nite… 3 different Gambling sites did commercials during the game. Similar to College football Bowl games who may seem stupid or meaningless with teams at 500 playing it’s about the gambling and inventory. The new gambling sites are buying out every game they can …INVENTORY…the network makes money and do the schools and conferences.
The next phase is NCAA units, the more schools that get in the more NCAA money gets shared and that can be significant. In CBB attendance is very very important more so than other sports. The Gate can mean a lot, so if your negative about a school like UD , consider this. When they travel to DePaul..GT..St John or Seton Hall the buildings will have a significant increase in attendance. Other than Seton Hall the other 3 can’t fill the building even with a team like Nova coming in. Simply take a look at DePaul when Nova came in. Now hang in….the most important can be what a school is willing to pay or give up to get into a conference. With the right check Presidents minds can be opened and or changed. There are schools that can and are willing to …buy in… Val will want the right set up to negotiate a new TV contract. Don’t get hung up on the name on the jersey, The GT..DePaul St John don’t mean what it did..hopefully they can get better. But there are or is a school who can make it a good financial fit for the conference… again it’s all about the money. Look The Big East is a terrific brand but changes have to come to keep up.Cash is King.

First of all, the majority of our schools (Seton Hall included, ridiculous to include them there) have no trouble filling their buildings regardless of opponent. Second of all, the ones that don't have no interest in having Dayton fans show up. Nobody wants to be overrun by visiting fans and and the financial impact of a few hundred Dayton fans at one game a year would be minimal at best.

[butlerguy03]

Okay, so you forced me into this post. Without dismissing take the time to read. Please understand the financials not what your heart says. The Last post about INVENTORY is spot on! The sports stations lost big money the last 2 years and they are all seeking more games to put on. For example watch the Drexel /Northeastern game last nite… 3 different Gambling sites did commercials during the game. Similar to College football Bowl games who may seem stupid or meaningless with teams at 500 playing it’s about the gambling and inventory. The new gambling sites are buying out every game they can …INVENTORY…the network makes money and do the schools and conferences.
The next phase is NCAA units, the more schools that get in the more NCAA money gets shared and that can be significant. In CBB attendance is very very important more so than other sports. The Gate can mean a lot, so if your negative about a school like UD , consider this. When they travel to DePaul..GT..St John or Seton Hall the buildings will have a significant increase in attendance. Other than Seton Hall the other 3 can’t fill the building even with a team like Nova coming in. Simply take a look at DePaul when Nova came in. Now hang in….the most important can be what a school is willing to pay or give up to get into a conference. With the right check Presidents minds can be opened and or changed. There are schools that can and are willing to …buy in… Val will want the right set up to negotiate a new TV contract. Don’t get hung up on the name on the jersey, The GT..DePaul St John don’t mean what it did..hopefully they can get better. But there are or is a school who can make it a good financial fit for the conference… again it’s all about the money. Look The Big East is a terrific brand but changes have to come to keep up.Cash is King.

lol - "buy" a way in? Dayton can't afford that. Notre Dame can, Syracuse maybe. Don't fool yourself into thinking Dayton has this giant fanbase and can spend money like the Yankees.

[stever20]

only way Dayton has a shot to get added is-
* Fox says Big East must add a team to get the same or more money
* Big East then decides to take it's contract out to the market and doesn't find any other takers
* Big East decides Dayton is stronger than any others

It would take an awful lot for Dayton to get in. Wouldn't exactly hold my breath on it.

[adoraz]

Please understand the financials not what your heart says.

Please point out where in my post I was speaking from my heart. I have an MBA in Finance, so yes I do of course look at this stuff from a financial standpoint. That's why I was one of the few St. John's fans who wanted UConn back. UConn helps our league in terms of TV negotiations and Tournament units.. aka revenue per school. You seem to not realize that units are split equally by school, so a team like St. Louis (or nearly anyone else) would've hurt our payout per school over this past decade given they've received fewer units than the average Big East school. I'm not holding my breath for another Dayton Elite 8 run anytime soon.

And yes, I did read your entire post. I will admit that I don't have access to the same numbers that the Big East or Fox do, but neither do you. Maybe inventory is super important to Fox and perhaps Dayton's metrics are stronger than I've guessed. I don't believe that's the case, but I haven't seen any strong argument here favoring Dayton besides some attendance figures. Trust me, Dayton would not help St. John's attendance much. Dayton is totally unnecessary as far as the BET attendance is concerned. Dayton fans need to start talking hard numbers in regards to TV ratings, that is what the league is interested in.

[Xudash]

Okay, so you forced me into this post. Without dismissing take the time to read. Please understand the financials not what your heart says. The Last post about INVENTORY is spot on! The sports stations lost big money the last 2 years and they are all seeking more games to put on. For example watch the Drexel /Northeastern game last nite… 3 different Gambling sites did commercials during the game. Similar to College football Bowl games who may seem stupid or meaningless with teams at 500 playing it’s about the gambling and inventory. The new gambling sites are buying out every game they can …INVENTORY…the network makes money and do the schools and conferences.
The next phase is NCAA units, the more schools that get in the more NCAA money gets shared and that can be significant. In CBB attendance is very very important more so than other sports. The Gate can mean a lot, so if your negative about a school like UD , consider this. When they travel to DePaul..GT..St John or Seton Hall the buildings will have a significant increase in attendance. Other than Seton Hall the other 3 can’t fill the building even with a team like Nova coming in. Simply take a look at DePaul when Nova came in. Now hang in….the most important can be what a school is willing to pay or give up to get into a conference. With the right check Presidents minds can be opened and or changed. There are schools that can and are willing to …buy in… Val will want the right set up to negotiate a new TV contract. Don’t get hung up on the name on the jersey, The GT..DePaul St John don’t mean what it did..hopefully they can get better. But there are or is a school who can make it a good financial fit for the conference… again it’s all about the money. Look The Big East is a terrific brand but changes have to come to keep up.Cash is King.

Do you walk to school or carry your lunch?