Rankings for 2021-22

[stever20]

I do a computer rating myself and IIRC I'm fairly close to how the NET was.... So just putting this out there...
Xavier 13
Providence 16
Nova 30
UConn 32
Seton Hall 33
Marquette 42
DePaul 55
Creighton 66
St John's 95
Butler 161
Georgetown 207

[Husky_U]

Didn't realize they were changing the NET formula...

"Starting this season, the metric will slim down to just two components, rather than the previous five. The two remaining components are an adjusted net efficiency rating and the Team Value Index (TVI), which is a result-based feature that rewards teams for beating quality opponents, particularly away from home. Win percentage, adjusted win percentage and scoring margin are no longer used in the NET rankings."

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2021-12-03/heres-what-we-might-see-first-mens-basketball-net-rankings-2021-22-season

[cu blujs]

Seems like a way to justify selecting more teams from P6 schools with sub .500 records to me. Perhaps its the old MVC fan in me, but I still think a team ought to have at least a .500 record in conference to qualify for the tournament as an at large. Otherwise, its the NIT for you.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

.
Here's what we might see in the first men's basketball NET rankings for the 2021-22 season - Andy Wittry, NCAA.com - December 5, 2021

On Monday morning, December 6th, the first edition of the men's basketball NET rankings will debut for the 2021-22 season. The NET rankings are the primary sorting tool for evaluating college basketball teams and when it comes time for the NCAA selection committee to select the seed of the 68 teams for the 2022 NCAA Tournament, the NET rankings will play a crucial role in evaluating the strength of teams' wins and losses.

Starting this season, the metric will slim down to just two components, rather than the previous five. The two remaining components are an adjusted net efficiency rating and the Team Value Index (TVI), which is a result-based feature that rewards teams for beating quality opponents, particularly away from home. Win percentage, adjusted win percentage and scoring margin are no longer used in the NET rankings.

So, prior to the release of the NET rankings on Monday, here are some insights as to what you can expect from the first edition of the rankings.

Who will be No. 1? What about in the top five?

A couple of losses won't doom a team's early-season NET ranking

Last season, Illinois debuted at No. 4 in the NET rankings despite being 8-3 at the time. Ultimately, Illinois earned a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, so it started in the top four of the NET and ended the regular season in the top four in the selection committee's eyes.

Even though a few early-season losses could hurt a team in the polls, it won't necessarily cause a similar drop in the NET rankings, especially if those losses were to strong teams and/or away from home. Take Gonzaga, for example. Gonzaga lost a close game to Duke on a neutral court, then to an Alabama team that will likely debut in the top 10 of the NET rankings. Gonzaga, by the way, still ranks No. 1 on kenpom.com and barttorvik.com, so its efficiency metrics are still incredibly strong. So while the Zags may not be No. 1 in the NET rankings, they could very well be ranked prominently on Monday.

A similar prognosis could apply to Villanova, whose only losses this season came on the road in overtime against UCLA and against Purdue on a neutral court in a pair of competitive efforts. The Wildcats will likely be ranked in or around the top 10 on Monday.

Let's have a quick discussion about Colgate and what its NET ranking last season meant

While not their purpose, the NET rankings have been a solid predictor of national championship contenders

Here's how last season's first rankings looked

Here's what the first edition of the NET rankings for the 2020-21 season looked like, when they were released on January 4, 2021.

Division I Men’s Basketball homepage - NCAA.com

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NET rankings 101: Explaining the NCAA Tournament's new selection tool replacing RPI - Jay Zarett, Sporting News – March 17, 2019

College basketball's NET rankings, explained - Andy Wittry, NCAA.com - October 5, 2021

The 2021-22 men's basketball season marks the fourth season of the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings, which replaced the RPI prior to the 2018-19 season as the primary sorting tool for evaluating teams. In May 2020, the NCAA announced there will be changes made to the NCAA Evaluation Tool to increase accuracy and simplify it by reducing a five-component metric to just two.

The remaining factors include the Team Value Index (TVI), which is a result-based feature that rewards teams for beating quality opponents, particularly away from home, as well as an adjusted net efficiency rating. The adjusted efficiency is a team’s net efficiency, adjusted for strength of opponent and location (home/away/neutral) across all games played. For example, a given efficiency value (net points per 100 possessions) against stronger opposition rates higher than the same efficiency against lesser opponents and having a certain efficiency on the road rates higher than the same efficiency at home. We're here to help you understand what's valued in the NET rankings and how they're used.

What did the RPI calculate? How is the NET different?

The Ratings Power Index (RPI) was made up of three components:

• A team's winning percentage
• Average opponent's winning percentage
• Average opponent's opponent's winning percentage

The NET includes more components than just winning percentage. It takes into account game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses. It's both a results-driven and predictive metric.

How was the NET rankings system created?

The NET rankings system was improved in the summer of 2018 after consultation with the Division I Men’s Basketball Committee, the National Association of Basketball Coaches, top basketball analytics experts and Google Cloud Professional Services. Late-season games from the 2017-18 season, including from the NCAA tournament, were originally used as test sets to develop a ranking model that used machine learning techniques. The model was used to predict the outcome of games in test sets and it was optimized until it was as accurate as possible. That model is the one used for the NET.

Is there any notable data not included in the NET?

Game date and game order were not included in the NET rankings so a team's first game counts the same as its 30th.

With the changes announced in May 2020, the NET will no longer use winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and scoring margin. The change was made after the committee consulted with Google Cloud Professional Services, which worked with the NCAA to develop the original NET.

“When we adopted the NET in 2018, we had reviewed several seasons worth of data and we insisted that we would continue to evaluate the metric,” said Dan Gavitt, the NCAA’s senior vice president of basketball. “We’ve been very satisfied with its performance thus far, but it became evident after two seasons of use that this change would be an improvement. While we will continue to monitor the metric, I don’t anticipate any additional adjustments for several years. We believe this change will result in more precision throughout the season and will be easier for our membership and the public to understand."

In addition, the overall and non-conference strength of schedule has been modernized to reflect a truer measure for how hard it is to defeat opponents. The strength of schedule is based on rating every game on a team's schedule for how hard it would be for an NCAA tournament-caliber team to win. It considers opponent strength and site of each game, assigning each game a difficulty score. Aggregating these across all games results in an overall expected win percentage versus a team's schedule, which can be ranked to get a better measure of the strength of schedule.

How are the NET rankings used?

Since the NET rankings serve as the primary sorting tool for Division I men's basketball, they play an important role in establishing a team's resume. The men’s and women’s basketball NET rankings and team sheets will be provided publicly on a daily basis on NCAA.com and NCAA.org starting in December. Using the quadrant system, which was in its fourth season in 2020-21, the quality of wins and losses will be organized based on game location and the opponent's NET ranking.

• Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
• Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
• Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
• Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

The number of Quadrant 1 wins and Quadrant 3/4 losses will be incredibly important when it comes time for NCAA tournament selection and seeding.

NCAA NET Rankings Explained - Peter Dewey, FanSided - November 23, 2021

The 2021-22 season is the fourth season of the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings being used as the primary sorting tool for evaluating teams; replacing RPI as the primary option. It uses just two components: Team Value Index and an adjusted net efficiency rating. Here is our complete guide of the NCAA Evaluation Tool.

What are NCAA NET rankings?

What’s the difference between NET rankings and RPI?

What’s the difference between NET rankings and KenPom?

KenPom, which is a separate ranking developed by Ken Pomeroy, looks at several statistical formulas that come together to form the Adjusted Efficiency Margin for every team. The better Adjusted Efficiency Margin, the higher the team is ranked.

Essentially, the goal of Adjusted Efficiency Margin is to show how much each team would outscore an average college basketball team per 100 possessions. Pomeroy’s ranking system incorporates statistics including shooting percentage, margin of victory, and strength of schedule, to calculate each team’s efficiency independent of injuries or emotional factors in the game.

While NET uses offensive and defensive efficiency as part of its formula, there are still several other factors (game locations for example) that differ from KenPom.

NET Rankings vs. AP Top 25

How are NET rankings calculated?

Calculating Offensive Efficiency

Calculating Defensive Efficiency

What college basketball rankings matter most?

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[stever20]

Net is out

Nova 5
UConn 13
SHall 21
Xavier 30
Providence 37
Marquette 78
Creighton 89
DePaul 94
St Johns 108
Butler 197
Georgetown 247

[Husky_U]

NET (thru games 12/5):

5. Nova
13. UCONN
21. Seton Hall
30. Xavier
37. Providence
78. Marquette
89. Creighton
94. Depaul
108. St Johns
197. Butler
247. Georgetown

[stever20]

current Q1 records-
Nova 1-2 23 SOS
UConn 1-1 144 SOS
SH 2-1 111 SOS
Xavier 3-1 65 SOS
Providence 2-0 101 SOS
Marquette 0-1 157 SOS
Creighton 0-2 208 SOS
DePaul 0-1 307 SOS
St John's 0-2 195 SOS
Butler 0-2 51 SOS
Georgetown 0-0 332 SOS

[adoraz]

Looks pretty solid for the league overall. St. John's mediocre as expected, though do play #41 Monmouth on Thursday.

[Jet915]

Overall not bad but Butler and Georgetown are awful. Teams will have their NET crater if they lose to them.

[stever20]

Overall not bad but Butler and Georgetown are awful. Teams will have their NET crater if they lose to them.

not to mention being a Q3 or Q4 loss.

Right now Butler would be Q4 loss at home or Q3 on the road
Georgetown would be Q4 loss either way

Of course some of this will be do they lose most of the remaining games? If so the NET rating would be remaining the same. If they win some games, they'll get a decent jump up.