Rankings for 2021-22

[adoraz]

know there was some talk about the NET ratings and when they would debut...

from David Worlick of NCAA:
One week from today, the 2021-22 NET will be made available for M/W basketball. Find them here: https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankin ... y_gritties. They will be updated daily for rest of the year. Click on the team's ranking to see a team sheet. Click on the team name to see stats, results and box scores.

Awesome. NET is really flawed, but I'm tired of seeing people cite kenpom in November/December when there's still a significant bias built in to the formula.

Yep, glad we'll finally get the real numbers.

[stever20]

know there was some talk about the NET ratings and when they would debut...

from David Worlick of NCAA:
One week from today, the 2021-22 NET will be made available for M/W basketball. Find them here: https://stats.ncaa.org/selection_rankin ... y_gritties. They will be updated daily for rest of the year. Click on the team's ranking to see a team sheet. Click on the team name to see stats, results and box scores.

Awesome. NET is really flawed, but I'm tired of seeing people cite kenpom in November/December when there's still a significant bias built in to the formula.

Yep, glad we'll finally get the real numbers.

earlier than we were expecting.

Makes sense given how many games teams have now. after tonight everyone in the Big East will have for instance at least 6 games.

[stever20]

didn't see it mentioned on here but Providence actually got 13 votes in the coaches poll this week to be #38.

Coaches have it as
Nova 6
UConn 17
Seton Hall 26(10 points behind St Bonaventure)
Marquette 31
Xavier 35
Providence 38

[kayako]

Not BE related but Purdue should get their 1st AP #1 next week provided they don't lose to Iowa at home.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

.
NET rankings 101: Explaining the NCAA Tournament's new selection tool replacing RPI - Jay Zarett, Sporting News – March 17, 2019

College basketball's NET rankings, explained - Andy Wittry, NCAA.com - October 5, 2021

The 2021-22 men's basketball season marks the fourth season of the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings, which replaced the RPI prior to the 2018-19 season as the primary sorting tool for evaluating teams. In May 2020, the NCAA announced there will be changes made to the NCAA Evaluation Tool to increase accuracy and simplify it by reducing a five-component metric to just two.

The remaining factors include the Team Value Index (TVI), which is a result-based feature that rewards teams for beating quality opponents, particularly away from home, as well as an adjusted net efficiency rating. The adjusted efficiency is a team’s net efficiency, adjusted for strength of opponent and location (home/away/neutral) across all games played. For example, a given efficiency value (net points per 100 possessions) against stronger opposition rates higher than the same efficiency against lesser opponents and having a certain efficiency on the road rates higher than the same efficiency at home. We're here to help you understand what's valued in the NET rankings and how they're used.

What did the RPI calculate? How is the NET different?

The Ratings Power Index (RPI) was made up of three components:

• A team's winning percentage
• Average opponent's winning percentage
• Average opponent's opponent's winning percentage

The NET includes more components than just winning percentage. It takes into account game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses. It's both a results-driven and predictive metric.

How was the NET rankings system created?

The NET rankings system was improved in the summer of 2018 after consultation with the Division I Men’s Basketball Committee, the National Association of Basketball Coaches, top basketball analytics experts and Google Cloud Professional Services. Late-season games from the 2017-18 season, including from the NCAA tournament, were originally used as test sets to develop a ranking model that used machine learning techniques. The model was used to predict the outcome of games in test sets and it was optimized until it was as accurate as possible. That model is the one used for the NET.

Is there any notable data not included in the NET?

Game date and game order were not included in the NET rankings so a team's first game counts the same as its 30th.

With the changes announced in May 2020, the NET will no longer use winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage and scoring margin. The change was made after the committee consulted with Google Cloud Professional Services, which worked with the NCAA to develop the original NET.

“When we adopted the NET in 2018, we had reviewed several seasons worth of data and we insisted that we would continue to evaluate the metric,” said Dan Gavitt, the NCAA’s senior vice president of basketball. “We’ve been very satisfied with its performance thus far, but it became evident after two seasons of use that this change would be an improvement. While we will continue to monitor the metric, I don’t anticipate any additional adjustments for several years. We believe this change will result in more precision throughout the season and will be easier for our membership and the public to understand."

In addition, the overall and non-conference strength of schedule has been modernized to reflect a truer measure for how hard it is to defeat opponents. The strength of schedule is based on rating every game on a team's schedule for how hard it would be for an NCAA tournament-caliber team to win. It considers opponent strength and site of each game, assigning each game a difficulty score. Aggregating these across all games results in an overall expected win percentage versus a team's schedule, which can be ranked to get a better measure of the strength of schedule.

How are the NET rankings used?

Since the NET rankings serve as the primary sorting tool for Division I men's basketball, they play an important role in establishing a team's resume. The men’s and women’s basketball NET rankings and team sheets will be provided publicly on a daily basis on NCAA.com and NCAA.org starting in December. Using the quadrant system, which was in its fourth season in 2020-21, the quality of wins and losses will be organized based on game location and the opponent's NET ranking.

• Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
• Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
• Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
• Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

The number of Quadrant 1 wins and Quadrant 3/4 losses will be incredibly important when it comes time for NCAA tournament selection and seeding.

NCAA NET Rankings Explained - Peter Dewey, FanSided - November 23, 2021

The 2021-22 season is the fourth season of the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) rankings being used as the primary sorting tool for evaluating teams; replacing RPI as the primary option. It uses just two components: Team Value Index and an adjusted net efficiency rating. Here is our complete guide of the NCAA Evaluation Tool.

What are NCAA NET rankings?

What’s the difference between NET rankings and RPI?

What’s the difference between NET rankings and KenPom?

KenPom, which is a separate ranking developed by Ken Pomeroy, looks at several statistical formulas that come together to form the Adjusted Efficiency Margin for every team. The better Adjusted Efficiency Margin, the higher the team is ranked.

Essentially, the goal of Adjusted Efficiency Margin is to show how much each team would outscore an average college basketball team per 100 possessions. Pomeroy’s ranking system incorporates statistics including shooting percentage, margin of victory, and strength of schedule, to calculate each team’s efficiency independent of injuries or emotional factors in the game.

While NET uses offensive and defensive efficiency as part of its formula, there are still several other factors (game locations for example) that differ from KenPom.

NET Rankings vs. AP Top 25

How are NET rankings calculated?

Calculating Offensive Efficiency

Calculating Defensive Efficiency

What college basketball rankings matter most?

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[adoraz]

Looking at the conference RPI rankings one last time (before we get NET):

1. SEC
2. Big XII
3. Big East
4. Big Ten
5. Mountain West
6. Pac 12
7. ACC
8. West Coast
9. Southern
10. Atlantic 10

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/ ... conference


Big East is in a great position at #3.

2. Xavier
22. Marquette
25. Providence
42. Villanova
51. DePaul
60. Creighton
75. Seton Hall
101. UConn
193. St. John's
211. Butler
275. Georgetown

Funny that none of our RPI top 25 teams are in the AP Top 25, and yet our 3 AP Top 25 teams aren't in the RPI top 25. Just goes to show how bad RPI is as a metric, and also how inconsistent AP rankings are this early.

Awful schedule for St. John's, to be 5-1 and ranked #193.

[stever20]

Nova played 2 of 6 RPI killers in Howard and La Salle. Also 2 losses.
UConn played 5 of 8 teams RPI 200 or worse, with 4 of those 290 or worse.

Seton Hall will go way up after tonight after Michigan plays UNC- and even playing Wagner right now.

[DudeAnon]

Looking at the conference RPI rankings one last time (before we get NET):

1. SEC
2. Big XII
3. Big East
4. Big Ten
5. Mountain West
6. Pac 12
7. ACC
8. West Coast
9. Southern
10. Atlantic 10

https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/ ... conference


Big East is in a great position at #3.

2. Xavier
22. Marquette
25. Providence
42. Villanova
51. DePaul
60. Creighton
75. Seton Hall
101. UConn
193. St. John's
211. Butler
275. Georgetown

Funny that none of our RPI top 25 teams are in the AP Top 25, and yet our 3 AP Top 25 teams aren't in the RPI top 25. Just goes to show how bad RPI is as a metric, and also how inconsistent AP rankings are this early.

Awful schedule for St. John's, to be 5-1 and ranked #193.

RPI is a W/L based metric. It may be the most inconsistent, but it should be the way teams are ranked.

[adoraz]

Easy to say when X is ranked #2 in RPI (kidding).

I'm aware of how RPI works, but it's still pretty flawed. Villanova for instance I'm sure would be ranked higher than #42 when NET comes out. They lost 2 very close games against top 3 teams and shouldn't be punished for challenging themselves. If RPI were still the metric being used, then I think they'd be more likely to schedule teams in the top 25 (teams they'd be favored against) rather than the top 3 (teams they've been underdogs against). Despite the results thus far, I've enjoyed seeing Nova play UCLA and Purdue over Tennessee.

Anyway, I'm just glad we can stop using RPI (and other useless metrics like KenPom- which still factors in 2020-21) once we get the official NET rankings. I think NET is flawed, too, but it's the metric being used and at least we'd have official numbers to use.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Tenn beats E Tenn St. by 28. Nova then beats Tenn on a neutral floor by 18. So early season RPI logic clearly dictates that E Tenn = 24, Tenn = 32 and Nova = 42. Makes perfect sense.

Oakland, the #1 RPI team per this model, has 2 loses, with one of them to Alabama by 29 points.

Why would anyone care to utilize this as a reasonable metric to build a NCAA BB hierarchy at this point? I don't care what the #'s tell you... If this was my job and these #'s were spit out the end of the data hose that I created, I wouldn't publish them. I would tell people: "there are not enough data points to create a model at this point in time." And if I were presenting these as some indication of true college hoops rankings, I would have little to no credibility.

Other than that...it's great!