Ackerman - BE - TV Contracts, Expansion, Gonzaga - Oct 2021

[Xudash]

I think you misunderstood my post to a certain degree. I wasn't saying that UConn was a bad addition, but rather that it's a bit hypocritical for a UConn fan (i.e. the article I quoted) to argue that only a program with Gonzaga's performance over the last decade can improve the Big East. I think UConn made sense because of their fanbase and dedication to basketball, which I think equates to higher viewership and potential for future success. I just don't think that you have to be one of the top 10 basketball programs to add value to the Big East. Yes, a top 10 program would add value, but not being a top 10 program isn't an instant disqualifier.

Yes, I think VCU would have been at least the 4th best team in terms of Kenpom if they had played in the Big East. The whole point of performance driven rating systems like Kenpom is to provide a basis for comparing teams across D1, and especially schools in different conferences. Add into the equation that it's probably easier to recruit in the Big East than the CAA/A10, I think its reasonable to say that VCU would have performed even better over the last decade if it had been a member of the Big East.

I'm not sure why you think a power conference wouldn't be interested in Gonzaga if their media partner was willing to pay for it.

If attendance at the BET is an important factor, I can attest that both Dayton and VCU travel very well to NYC. SLU, not so much.

I understand your point about UCONN. However, at the end of the day, UCONN, as a candidate for BE membership this last time around, was a gimme putt - from any distance. Frankly, had the scenario been UCONN or Gonzaga, but not both, UCONN would most likely have won out even then.

As far as how well VCU would have done in the Big East in the last decade is concerned, we can only shoot the breeze on that one. All I can tell you from direct experience as a Xavier fan is that the jump to the BE from the A10 was truly big; no nights off with scrimmages against the dregs of the A10. Comparative data doesn’t cut it for me. You have to live the schedule and see how you hold up then. Villanova, Xavier (prior to Mack’s exit), Marquette, Creighton, Seton Hall and Providence, in particular, probably would disagree with your assertion.

Football conferences and their media partners simply are not going to pursue a hybrid model. I believe you’re wasting your time going down that path.

As far as BET attendance is concerned, what I am saying is that it does not present an opportunity for an expansion candidate. The BET reboot has been very successful and basically sells out now. Moving forward with UCONN’s participation, we will probably never have trouble selling tickets to the BET.

If the Big East weren’t sitting in a position of strength, but was still a strong conference looking to make a solid addition, VCU would certainly qualify for that - frankly, probably at the top of the list.

The reality is that the Big East is in a position of strength and very well may possibly have an opportunity to make a strategic addition that really juices up it’s media agreement and overall brand perception.

Was Val’s tweet casual with no motive behind it? Was that little bit of smoke just smoke with no fire coming? We will have to wait and see. I do know one thing: Val Ackerman boat races the A10’s commissioner. She normally takes actions and makes public statements with some defined purpose in mind. We’ll see.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

Imagine us with a payout per school of not less than $7 million per year for a new 10 year term.

You are clearly out of touch with reality on the Big East’s next TV Rights contract. You really need to read this.

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It's in Gonzaga's best interests to join the Big East now, or very soon, while they're strong.

You are incorrect. The decision to join (or not join) the Big East is ultimately up to the president and Board of Trustees of Gonzaga University. The most important factor influencing their decision will be the long-term financial implications of joining the Big East vs. NOT joining the Big East.

I have summarized the relevant decision-making financial information in this post, which clearly shows that remaining in the WCC (under their new agreement with the WCC) puts Gonzaga University in a much better financial situation than joining the Big East - both at present and in the future.

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The reality is that the Big East is in a position of strength ...

Wrong again. Congratulations on the hat trick.

Please stop with your eristic and ipse dixit posts, as they are an unnecessary distraction from an otherwise interesting discussion.

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[butlerguy03]

It’s great hearing from VCU and Dayton fans. Good luck in the A-10. Unless desperate, you’re not even in consideration. It’s Gonzaga or Football 5 castoffs.

[DudeAnon]

Dayton

+ Decent program
+ Strong fanbase
+ Built in rivalry with X

- Fieldhouse Flyer

[MullinMayhem]

The A-10 teams are so angry lol...man it's nice to go from being super nervous after Cuse and Pitt left starting the exodus and the fear that we may become closer to a mid major....to sitting in a position of strength being able to be choosy with people knocking down the door. The Big East has always been a trailblazer from its inception right through to today. No one thought 7 relatively small catholic schools could make it in the big football environment. Then we grabbed several great programs who were perfect fits and we proved we were still a power conference and that power conference does not always mean football conference. We are the 1 rare exception showing that you don't need big football to have big basketball. And people still care a lot and watch. The BET was already going strong but with UConn back, it's going to be complete chaos in the best way possible. We need to add only the Gonzaga's and possible F5 castoffs like Cuse, ND, etc. in the rare event they consider it. We are the only conference that offers real security without the bother of football. That's a very unique position no one else offers. This used to be thought of as suicide but now people are seeing it's actually appealing. I believe we're already at a point where if the F5 splits from the NCAA, they would likely have to include us in whatever that will look like. But adding Gonzaga and the like only sweetens the pot. We literally went from the hunted to the hunter and we're doing things on our terms. There should be a new 30 for 30 about this. Really incredible when you think about it.

[Murphy outgo lifer]

Hey everyone,

Gonzaga basketball fan here. I have really enjoyed reading this thread and thought I should join in. Hopefully, I’ll have the jump on everyone else if Gonzaga does join the Big East at some point. I am happy to try and answer any questions any of you may have regarding Gonzaga.

The first thing to realize about Gonzaga is that Men’s Basketball drives everything at Gonzaga. Prior to the “run” in 99 Gonzaga was in massive financial trouble and were thinking they might have to close the doors. I heard this somewhere else and I am not sure of the veracity of this but it was said we might be going to D3 for basketball. Since the “run’ in 99 we have had unprecedented growth in academics, enrollments, and national awareness. With that being said, the University has also maintained a relative conservativeness in regards to how long this will last. When they built the new stadium in 2004 they had a decision to build a 6K, 8K, or 12K arena and they chose 6K because they were not sure how long our success would last. With all the changes happening with conference realignment and the NIL I have heard they are still not sure what the long-term will look like. This is all to say that I believe the administration may be open to considering a Big East invitation even with the downsides of travel to ensure the success of the university. Totally my take, but that is how important Zag’s Basketball is to the university.

At the time of the negotiations with the MWC and talks with the Big East in 2018 it was quoted in a local newspaper that Mark Few was all about it and said we have a private jet and could do the cross-country thing. Our AD at the time Mike Roth stated something like it the concern was more of the Big East schools wanting to come over here. Also, I presume the other sports at our university was and is a big concern to them as well. This is all to say that I believe Mark Few is onboard with a Big East conference which is obviously the first step.

In talking about the travel, I believe a previous poster highlighted on here from the Big East perspective that if the additional money is right, I think one extra trip to the west coast for each Olympic sport would not necessarily be that big of a burden and really it is Gonzaga’s burden that might be the deal breaker. I think that take makes sense to me but you all would know your schools best. Regarding our travel, there was a poster on our GU message board that laid out the possible additional costs if we moved all our Olympic sports that I will share here. From ZagDad84:
INCREASE IN EXPENSES:

ASSUMPTIONS:
- All calculations assume a 20 game Big East schedule, 10 home games and 10 away games
- Mbb AND Wbb charter to Big East away games
- Cost of charter per operating hour = $4,000/Hr (Assume base cost of charter is the same only the flight cost varies)
- Average Increase in Flight time 4 Hrs/Game Increase in other expenses (lodging, meals, etc.) = $1,000/game
- Gonzaga has a total of 12 non-basketball sports that I assume fly commercial to their away games.
- The various sports have a large variance in the number of student athletes shown on the rosters. Large teams I limited travel squads to 25 people + 5 staff
- Cross Country I limited to 15 members + 5 staff per team
- All other sports I used the entire listed roster + 5 Staff.
- Total number of student athletes and staff are 331, 123 men, 138 women and 70 staff (14 sports x 5 staff/sport)
- I assumed the commercial flights would have a round trip increase of $200/ticket to fly to the Big East games versus the WCC away games.
- For Non-Flight expenses I allowed $1,000 per game for teams with 20 or fewer members & $2,000/game for teams with more than 20 members.

CALCULATIONS:

Increased Expenses for Mbb & Wbb
- Increase in Flight Costs - 20 games x 4 Hrs/game x $4,000/Hr = $320,000
- Increase in Non-Flight Costs = 20 games x $1,000/game = $20,000

Total Increase in Basketball expenses = $320,000 + $20,000 = $340,000

Increased Expenses for non-basketball sports:
- Increase in Flight Costs - 331 student athletes and staff x 10 games x $200/ticket = $662,000
- Increase in Non-Flight Costs (small teams) = 7 sports x 10 games/sport x $1,000/game = $70,000
- Increase in Non-Flight Costs (large teams) = 7 sports x 10 games/sport x $2,000/game = $140,000

Total Increase in Non-Basketball Expenses = $662,000 + $70,000 + $140,000 = $872,000

Total Increase in Athletic Expenses by Joining the Big East = $340,000 + $872,000 = $1,212,000

This is obviously just a rough estimate but gives a starting point to see what the additional costs may be. The other thing to consider with GU is we currently have an inverted schedule where we do massive travel in our non-conference to make up for the less competition in conference. ESPN has in the past highlighted all the miles we travel in our non-conference and it is something we have never had an issue with in the past. My opinion is that if we were to join the Big East we could reduce the travel in our non-conference and actually be in the same ball park as we currently are. The additional travel for our other sports is the main issue here and I have no idea if Gonzaga would be willing to spin off our other sports into another conference or not.

The common thing with opposition on our site is the increased burden on our student athletes from a move like this. Even with our basketball schedule being very heavy on travel we can currently schedule however we want in non-conference (such as spreading out travel dates or combining them) to ease the burden. We will not have that luxury in a conference when the schedules will be set for us. Obviously, there are some things that can mitigate this such as pods but I am not sure the plausibility of this. The increase in burden for our student athletes may be a reason why we wouldn’t consider joining the Big East and there is no way I can quantify that here.

The next big reason would obviously be if the money does not make sense. We would be giving up tournament shares to join the Big East and I have no idea if apart of the negotiations would be for us to share in the Big East tournament shares so I when considering this I have to assume that we would just lose out on that. With that being said, we also did not have any in 2020 so that is a positive as we are not giving those up as well. Another poster on here estimated that we would be giving up $32 million from a previous 6 year period so that is a good place to start.

The first thing to realize about the money is we are going to be very hurt for our future TV contracts with BYU leaving. For this season the WCC has 22 games aired on ESPN and 9 of those are GU, 7 of them are from BYU, and 6 of them are from Saint Mary’s (0 from the other WCC teams). So we would be losing 32% of the WCCs ESPN games. It was stated on this site that our contract currently pays us $2,554,436 a year for our contracts. That number will assuredly go down after BYU leaves. It was also posted on the site that the Big East is in contention for increases to the their TV Contracts if they add someone like Gonzaga who is a big draw and would be desirable to Fox. Really what it needs to come down to is replacing 5.3 million per year so if the $7M per school figures are correct then it would be close to offsetting are losses and given that we may be taking a TV contract hit after BYU could make sense. But you also have the increase in travel expenses at about $1.2M so we would ultimately need a TV contract worth about $9M to be equal (or that could come from sharing of tournament revenues – once again not sure how plausible that is).

With that being said, there are other risks to us with not joining a power conference. First is the conference realignment and reducing our ability to schedule non-conference games and the looming possibility of a Power Conference seclusion. Also with the NIL, BYU leaving the WCC to consider on our end which means long-term we far from being secure. With the $32M being a sunk cost in this equation and if we can get close to making that with a new TV contract with the Big East eventually with TV contracts and future tournament shares we arguably will be better long-term in the Big East with the added benefit of a greater likelihood of long-term relevancy.

The interesting thing to me is that I don’t think the Big East will offer Gonzaga. We have been here before with talks and I just don’t think the Big East schools have any desire to add the travel to their schedules which honestly I don’t think is that burdensome, definitely not compared what Gonzaga would have to do. One trip to the west coast for each sport. I think Gonzaga would accept an invitation if it was offered (assuming the money worked out) but I just don’t think there will be an offer.

I hope I am wrong because I would love the match-ups.

[admin]

Welcome to HLOH and thank you for providing us with some additional knowledge on the subject. We definitely appreciate your insight.

[Husky_U]

Interview with Gonzaga AD:

Q: Gonzaga’s name has surfaced recently in realignment chatter. The Big East could be a fit for basketball, but there are so many other considerations involved, including Creighton being the closest school to Spokane. Is there a way to make it work?

Zags' AD: First and foremost, there’s a lot of change that’s going to happen in the next eight weeks, 18 months, that will inform a lot of these discussions. There will be some leagues that get larger and possibly express a larger geographic footprint.

The Big 12 is certainly not done yet. Those things will all inform what the answer to that question is. If everybody stays in the traditional eight to 12 (range for membership) and doesn’t push into 16, that makes it more challenging. If you start looking at geography in a nontraditional way, I think there are a lot of things that are possible.

Q: The Mountain West is apparently showing interest in GU again. Does BYU’s departure from the WCC change Gonzaga’s outlook?

Zags' AD: It’s a super dynamic time. I don’t think there’s enough static analysis that can be done to make it just about BYU leaving the WCC and does that make the Mountain West a better alternative. It’s a time where we have to be very open to conversations and evaluating the landscape. Change will continue to happen. Making decisions won’t necessarily be made on known facts. You also have to evaluate what could happen next.

https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2021/oct/19/qa-new-gonzaga-ad-chris-standiford-on-mark-fews-su/

[Django]

Gonzaga needs to go independent and work a tv deal with any of the gazillion networks out there. They could do scheduling arrangements with just about any Football5/Big East team to get a full schedule.

What I want is to get the Big East into the P3's alignment deal. Val should be all over that. We need to get into that group yesterday. She really dropped the ball on that. I know it's football related but she knows all those ADs and commissioners well from B-ball and should have snuck in any way she could have. Joining in the alliance with the Pac B10 and ACC is a no brainer.... it would acutally impel the SEC to join up and have a scheduling alliance with the new B12 for basketball purposes. Zags can join too.

[Murphy outgo lifer]

Gonzaga needs to go independent and work a tv deal with any of the gazillion networks out there. They could do scheduling arrangements with just about any Football5/Big East team to get a full schedule.

What I want is to get the Big East into the P3's alignment deal. Val should be all over that. We need to get into that group yesterday. She really dropped the ball on that. I know it's football related but she knows all those ADs and commissioners well from B-ball and should have snuck in any way she could have. Joining in the alliance with the Pac B10 and ACC is a no brainer.... it would acutally impel the SEC to join up and have a scheduling alliance with the new B12 for basketball purposes. Zags can join too.

This will never happen. We struggled mightily last season to get a power conference team to schedule us during conference play. It’s only going to get worse as conference play expands. If nothing comes about for conference realignment we will just stay in the WCC.