Conference Realignment: What Next?

[Gopher+RamFan]

Could we add Gonzaga as a basketball only member?

No. According to the NCAA, which Conference you put your basketball program in is also your conference for other "olympic" sports. This is why Gonzaga is likely a non-starter, no one wants to send their non-basketball teams to the west coast each season. Football can go anywhere, which is why the AAC started pairing football only members with stronger basketball only candidates (like WSU, and tried with VCU).

This pretty much limits expansion candidates to those within a reasonable travel distance = midwest/east coast, likely Dayton/SLU/VCU. Still, no reason to expand right now anyway.

[Bogg]

Count me in supporting a two- or even four-game scheduling arrangement with the Zags. You don't even have to bill it as a "challenge", just call it what it is - an association with a compatible institution while acknowledging that flying a soccer team from New Jersey to Spokane Washington for a Wednesday night game in October is stupid.

[adoraz]

Gonzaga does not need the Big East. They can compete for national championships in the WCC. I just see no realistic scenario where any AD or President believes by sending its Pacific Northwest athletic department’s Olympic sports to the East Coast is viewed as a good idea. And before it gets recommended, you cannot join a conference for basketball only. Could a scheduling alliance be arranged? Absolutely. But that’s about as far as a Big East/Gonzaga marriage could go.

It's not just about being able to compete for national championships (which could be less likely now with BYU leaving), it's more that they're being severely underpaid. I get that travelling for all sports will increase their expenses, but I think it'd be more than offset by the increase in TV revenue, Tournament credits, ticket sales, etc. Plus, by joining a major league they'd improve their longevity after Few leaves.

I'm pretty sure the only reason they aren't in is because the Big East presidents haven't invited them yet. That could change with the TV negotiations. We're now at a disadvantage by having the fewest teams of any Power conference, and Gonzaga joining would put any questions about the strength of our league to bed.

Let's say if Fox offers an additional $12 million per year for Gonzaga ($1 million per school) on top of what they would pay a St. Louis or VCU. No idea if the actual number would be higher or lower. Then assume Gonzaga brings in more Tournament credits for each member. Would the Big East schools really be paying > $1 million+ per year for ~10 trips to Washington? And don't most teams travel far for some OOC games? Just replace a far OOC game with Gonzaga. If Creighton, a team that hadn't even made it to the S16 wasn't a problem, I don't get how Gonzaga is. Gonzaga is a stronger brand now than they were during realignment.

Gonzaga has a sweetheart deal with the WCC. They pushed for a 16-game conference schedule; they got it. If they wanted, they could get a sweetheart deal with the MWC. BYU does not affect Gonzaga competing for national championships. Regarding travel, respectfully, you’re thinking like a fan, not as an administrator or president. All non-men’s basketball sports for Gonzaga would be severely and negatively impacted. It is an eight-hour flight one way. Realistically, how could Gonzaga justify sending its volleyball, soccer, baseball, golf, cross country and track teams to the East Coast with such frequency? They can’t (and won’t). No university president will sign off on that. Sorry.

Regarding a scheduling alliance - the WCC just lost BYU. Gonzaga just lost two key conference games. To counter the reality that a Seattle or Cal Baptist is likely to join the WCC, Gonzaga needs to beef up its non-con to maintain its resume. They control that. What is much easier, and much more realistic, is an alliance with the Big East by scheduling a home and an away annually with two BE members. This obviously helps Gonzaga replace BYU’s strength on the schedule. For the Big East, it is another huge power scheduling alliance (B1G, Big 12), that continues to enforce we remain a power conference. More importantly, and to the powers at Fox, they don’t need to pay more for adding a 12th member, which I’m sure the BE presidents are likely against (especifically if none add value like UConn did).

I cannot stress enough - Gonzaga will never be a member in the Big East, unless there’s a western pod to balance it out.

Think it's too early to definitively say that BYU leaving won't negatively impact Gonzaga. The only Gonzaga conference games I remember from this past season were when they played BYU (especially in the conference finals). BYU leaving puts an enormous amount of pressure on Gonzaga OOC if they want to get a 1 seed. Clearly at least some of their fans are concerned, I don't remember seeing any Gonzaga fans on here prior to this week.

Gonzaga can justify sending their teams cross country if the numbers work (increased TV revenue, ticket revenue & Tournament shares). Maybe they discontinue a few sports. The big question here is if the numbers can work. That I, as well as everyone else on here, am unsure of. If joining the Big East makes them more profitable then they'll be able to justify it, simple as that.

For the record I still don't think they'll be added, especially not immediately. But I do think the odds are much closer to 50-50 then they ever have been.

[MullinMayhem]

This prob isn't breaking news to many, but I have heard from credible people within WCC/Gonzaga that they are actively discussing at least the possibility of a Big East move. If FOX gives us enough $ to cover travel then who cares? In this new world, it's not about fit geographically anymore. It's about grabbing the best teams you can. And there's no way we would be left out once the P5 splits from the NCAA inevitably for the NCAA Tournament.

[MullinMayhem]

I saw earlier in this thread that it's apparently a rule where you can't just park a hoops program and leave every other sport in another conf. Assuming that's true, who says that can't change? I still think there's a chance that the ACC, etc. invite hoops affiliates in the event of a P5 separation. They aren't leaving out Villanova, Georgetown, UConn, etc. etc. So after seeing how wild the ride has been with realignment, who's to say that they won't waive that requirement? I know a big reason it wouldn't happen is because of having to split the money amongst more schools for hoops, but maybe they would negotiate a smaller share for former Big East schools, yet still higher than what we currently get in Big East.

[ArmyVet]

This prob isn't breaking news to many, but I have heard from credible people within WCC/Gonzaga that they are actively discussing at least the possibility of a Big East move. If FOX gives us enough $ to cover travel then who cares? In this new world, it's not about fit geographically anymore. It's about grabbing the best teams you can. And there's no way we would be left out once the P5 splits from the NCAA inevitably for the NCAA Tournament.

The downside is clearly imbalanced toward Gonzaga. So what if each Big East team needed to make one trip west each year in basketball? Most of the other Olympic sports are not making annual trips presently right? I think baseball and soccer probably alternate years. So now you're talking about one trip every OTHER year for most of your sports. That's nothing for the Big East to swallow if the benefit for men's basketball is as great as this would be.

[kayako]

For the record I still don't think they'll be added, especially not immediately. But I do think the odds are much closer to 50-50 then they ever have been.

Too many bulldog mascots for me personally, but yeah I think Big 12's insistance on all sports only will have sneaky big implications on realignment. I believe in the past Gonzaga wanted to join the BE with a travel partner or two or three, but perhaps they'd come alone now. It's probably on BE school presidents now. Our down years in 2019 and 2021 seasons may play a factor here, and as you've mentioned previously another one in 2022 probably ups the motivations quite a bit.

[MUPanther]

The Big 12 is still a top tier basketball conference and a very good football conference. It just doesn't have any marquee football brands that drive the media rights deals. Once Texas and Oklahoma leave, that conference is just not as valuable.
And it's going to be pretty spread out geographically with teams in Florida, Ohio and Utah.

If it's not Texas vs Big 12 team or Oklahoma vs Big 12 team, the game will not be on ABC or FOX in most cases. Those games land on FS1 or ESPN. OU/UT make up 50 to 65% of the current TV money. That said, there will be bidders for the big 12 in 2025

[Xudash]

For the record I still don't think they'll be added, especially not immediately. But I do think the odds are much closer to 50-50 then they ever have been.

Too many bulldog mascots for me personally, but yeah I think Big 12's insistance on all sports only will have sneaky big implications on realignment. I believe in the past Gonzaga wanted to join the BE with a travel partner or two or three, but perhaps they'd come alone now. It's probably on BE school presidents now. Our down years in 2019 and 2021 seasons may play a factor here, and as you've mentioned previously another one in 2022 probably ups the motivations quite a bit.

That's an interesting point.

So, it probably is more true than not that the Big East will have to continue to prove itself, to a degree, when it comes to maintaining its status as a major basketball conference. There may be some "perception pressure" for that, at the very least.

In comparison, does the B1G have this problem. No, it obviously will never need to worry about proving itself and its status, even though Michigan State was the last B1G team to win the NCAAT in 2000. The most powerful or second most powerful conference, with football stadiums that exceed 100,000 seats in a few cases, and large numbers of alumni don't have to worry about this issue. Bigness begets power in collegiate sports.

However, I did note "to a degree". The reason for that is that the BE brand is very strong. It covers a large swath of U.S. population. We have arguably the premier conference tournament in the nation. Borrowing from Bill Clinton and his obvious grasp of his philosophy courses as part of his Jesuit education, it depends upon what the definition of "down" is. It would be crazy to think that a requisite for maintaining a top tier status is having a conference member win the NCAAT in - pick a timeframe - every 5 years. I'd submit that we need to do the obvious:

1. Have success in our collective OOC schedules (prove strength through direct competition).
2. Continue to chalk up multiple (5'ish out of 11) NCAA bids consistently every year (clear multi-bid conference).
3. Consistently make it to the second weekend with at least a couple of those teams.
4. Break through to the E8 and F4 on a reasonably frequent basis (beauty is in the eye of the beholder on this one).

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One last unrelated thoughline. We're all here as basketball fans, for the most part. Prospective additions are sometimes primarily looked at through a lense that is tailored for looking at sports performance. It has been well articulated by others here that the BE Presidents have more on their minds than just basketball performance when it comes to considering conference expansion. Personally, I believe that is the right way to go about it; they should be more holistic about it. I'm not suggesting that they should try to emulate the B1G with its emphasis on AAU accreditation; a very different league and different animal. But the addition does have to make institutional sense; it has to be a good fit.

If they identify the right target and that target pleases Fox to the point of Fox structuring a media package that is truly accretive to the membership, then it has to be worthwhile at that point to expand. As adoraz noted, being proactive with this, strengthening our longevity, etc. along the way, sets us up well for the immediate and near term future.

Imagine where each existing BE program was before Dave Gavitt came along. Then think about $500 million over 12 years for 10 schools at the time of the reset. Think about the NCCAT Units we've racked up since 2013. What might be possible now? How will we pivot from about $4 million per school per year to $x million per year? Is it going up in a big way anyway with or without Gonzaga? Would it go up that much more at the increment with Gonzaga added?

This is what Excel spreadsheets are for - - assuming all parties are willing to look at it, pump it into a financial model and see what comes out. If the math works and everyone can agree to the logistics, then the only remaining question is the marketing one: will such an addition strengthen the brand to the point of making such a move worthwhile?

[Django]

I’m in favor of the Zags going Indy in men’s basketball and having a scheduling arrangement with the Big East. Just like Notre Dame does with the ACC in football. All the rest of their sports stay in the WCC. So we all would play the Zags once every year and rotate home and away.