Conference Realignment: What Next?

[Omaha1]

This isn’t meant as some kind of cheap shot at anyone, but as a Creighton fan I really don’t have any interest in reducing the number of times I see my team play Nova, Hall, Marquette and have those matchups replaced by games against VCU and Dayton or anyone else. For that reason alone I am opposed to expansion.

[gtmoBlue]

The A-10 Contract, from 2018 - and recently extended (Nov 2020) with ESPN and CBS - pays $5Million/year or $350K/perschool/year.

The AAC's latest contract (2019-ESPN) pays a reported $7 Million/per school/year. It includes football.

https://www.bigeastcoastbias.com/2012/10/3/3448664/new-atlantic-10-television-contract-shows-big-east-basketball-schools

https://www.on3.com/news/conference-tv-deals-current-status-college-football/

Each BE Team makes $4.1M/Yr on the current 12 yr contract with Fox. That's a 10-fold increase over A-10 schools in TV value.

Note: CBS loses the SEC Football in 2024. NBC has become a new player in the college sports sector. I look for both of these companies
to be actively engaged during the 2023-25 round of contract negotiations, along with current baddies ESPN, Fox, & Turner. I expect some interest and
bidding from Stadium, Facebook, and new sports streaming players.

FORBES: Top 25 most valuable College teams...https://www.forbes.com/sites/chrissmith ... 93143ba2e7

Top 50 most valuable College teams...Wall Street Journal table: https://graphics.wsj.com/table/NCAA_2019

https://graphics.wsj.com/table/COUNT_0330 2016 overall program valuation on a open market. Dayton makes this valuation @ #21 ahead of Marquette and Xavier. UConn 38, VCU 40th.
Gtwn & StJ ranked in the 50's. Prov and Cr8n ranked in the 70's, both valued at $31M+.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/christinasettimi/2020/03/19/college-basketball-most-valuable-teams-ncaa-march-madness/?sh=25e1a9ff285d

In this Top 20 Basketball only article, Marquette is the only BE team in the mix.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/richest-college-basketball-programs-america-210045624.html

So if we're looking at TV revenues...the A10ers don't make the cut. If we're looking at overall revenues / program value then Dayton makes the cut (as a school with money).

In this one Dayton is #25. Overall Hoops revenues.

Lil Creighton: Overall value $31+ Million, Annual Revenues $26.6 Million (8th in the BE).

[LMS]

This isn’t meant as some kind of cheap shot at anyone, but as a Creighton fan I really don’t have any interest in reducing the number of times I see my team play Nova, Hall, Marquette and have those matchups replaced by games against VCU and Dayton or anyone else. For that reason alone I am opposed to expansion.

This. This. This.

Especially considering that any additions would probably result in a divisional format east/west meaning the games we really want to see would be the one most affected. Just stay at 11 forever.

[Violet Ram]

This isn’t meant as some kind of cheap shot at anyone, but as a Creighton fan I really don’t have any interest in reducing the number of times I see my team play Nova, Hall, Marquette and have those matchups replaced by games against VCU and Dayton or anyone else. For that reason alone I am opposed to expansion.

No offense taken. I'm not here to convince anyone VCU is the bees-knees and that the Big East should invite VCU (in part because it's not lost on me that slinging for a school on a message board has little utility in changing the minds of actual decision makers), but rather trying to understand how other folks assign (or speculate) CBB value.

Two quick thoughts though. First, what if by adding a team (whether if be VCU, Dayton or anyone else), hypothetically was the difference between Creighton being in the top 25 (e.g. beating VCU/Dayton/ETC was enough to push Creighton in the top 25), and thus making the Creighton-Nova game a matchup of 2 top 25 teams? Would playing that BE-expansion team then be worth it? Alternatively, if the VCU/Dayton/whoever else team was ranked in the top 25, would it still be of no interest?

Second, and similarly no offense, but VCU wouldn't be joining to play DePaul or Providence as their marquee games. How would you feel about a Creighton-DePaul game being replaced with a Creighton-VCU game.

Ram fans: I don't think there are numbers available online to prove this given that ratings information isn't easy to find and directly compare. That said, let's consider the following involving the networks (who do have access to these numbers):

1. Villanova, UConn and Georgetown tend to be the teams that Fox and CBS feature the most (despite Georgetown being mediocre)
2. The Big East's TV contract is worth significantly worth more than the A10's (multiple times?)
3. During the Big East's expansion 8 years ago they did not take those 3 teams
4. Those 3 teams, with the likely exception of Dayton, I don't believe have raised their profiles since the Big East last excluded them

I'm not saying that a UConn is worth 10X that of a Dayton, but I absolutely think they're worth perhaps 3-5X as much (especially when you consider their women's hoops, which the networks feature some games for).

Overall that's what I'm getting at. UConn was a great add because they will increase our per-team payout. Those other 3 won't. I just can't see Fox advertising on football Sunday to watch the Big East double header between St. Louis vs Dayton followed by VCU vs Providence or whatever. People would be confused as to why those random, seemingly uneventful, matchups were being listed. Headline with Nova, UConn or GTown? Night and day. Sure, a lot of that has to do with how those teams have performed on the court (currently and/or historically), but VCU, Dayton and St. Louis have had their chance and haven't elevated their programs enough. Close to zero casual viewers are tuning in for those teams, and they'd also be much more likely to get current viewers to change the channel (such as during the second half of a B1G - BE double header).

I understand those 3 A10 teams have strong fan bases with local interest. I just don't see them having much national interest. Certainly not enough to increase our per-team payout, otherwise they'd already be in our league.

Yeah, it's hard to find info on regular season games, which was the impetus for joining this board to gain a better perspective on how y'all were valuing teams. Looking at conference finals, which really isn't representative of a league's entire value, the A10's viewership stacks up favorably to the Big East's, especially when VCU is in the game.

I'm not sure why you wouldn't look at the marquee matchups. Would VCU-Georgetown/Villanova/etc. bring in more viewers than DePaul-Georgetown? I think the answer is yes, but again, it's hard to base that in numbers.

Not to harp too much on this point, but I'm not sure why a conference's media contract is a good representative of a specific team's worth. If it were, then there would never be any realignment in either football or basketball since everyone is being paid their fair value. Also, taking Butler as an example, Butler was in the Horizon and A10 with the same or worse contacts than the current A10 contract, but their conference's low media payout didn't define their value to the Big East.

I think part of why VCU wasn't in the original cut was two-fold. First, we were coming from the CAA, which was several ladders down from the Big East. Second, we would have been the only public school. With UConn now in the fold, I think the calculus may be a bit different.

The A-10 Contract, from 2018 - and recently extended (Nov 2020) with ESPN and CBS - pays $5Million/year or $350K/perschool/year.

The AAC's latest contract (2019-ESPN) pays a reported $7 Million/per school/year. It includes football.

https://www.bigeastcoastbias.com/2012/10/3/3448664/new-atlantic-10-television-contract-shows-big-east-basketball-schools

https://www.on3.com/news/conference-tv-deals-current-status-college-football/

Each BE Team makes $4.1M/Yr on the current 12 yr contract with Fox. That's a 10-fold increase over A-10 schools in TV value.

Note: CBS loses the SEC Football in 2024. NBC has become a new player in the college sports sector. I look for both of these companies
to be actively engaged during the 2023-25 round of contract negotiations, along with current baddies ESPN, Fox, & Turner. I expect some interest and
bidding from Stadium, Facebook, and new sports streaming players.

FORBES: Top 25 most valuable College teams...https://www.forbes.com/sites/chrissmith ... 93143ba2e7

Top 50 most valuable College teams...Wall Street Journal table: https://graphics.wsj.com/table/NCAA_2019

https://graphics.wsj.com/table/COUNT_0330 2016 overall program valuation on a open market. Dayton makes this valuation @ #21 ahead of Marquette and Xavier. UConn 38, VCU 40th.
Gtwn & StJ ranked in the 50's. Prov and Cr8n ranked in the 70's.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/christinasettimi/2020/03/19/college-basketball-most-valuable-teams-ncaa-march-madness/?sh=25e1a9ff285d

In this Top 20 Basketball only article, Marquette is the only BE team in the mix.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/richest-college-basketball-programs-america-210045624.html

So if we're looking at TV revenues...the A10ers don't make the cut. If we're looking at overall revenues / program value then Dayton makes the cut (as a school with money).

In this one Dayton is #25. Overall Hoops revenues.

Again, not sure why you would define a team's worth by its conference's media contract. It's a classic chicken and egg. If VCU or Dayton joined the Big East (or any conference with a larger CBB TV payout) would you say that VCU/Dayton's value increased instantly or that because VCU and Dayton were valuable, they joined the Big East. I think you've stated that you think Gonzaga would be a good addition (logistics aside). How much do they make from the WCC media contract?

Thanks for the WSJ article. I found a newer version from 2019 here (which was unkind to VCU): https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-much-i ... 1554739458

Even with the one year dip, VCU would be 3rd most valuable program in the Big East, just ahead of Georgetown. I'm a bit surprised, but Dayton would be the most valuable program, just ahead of Villanova.

[GoldenWarrior11]

This isn’t meant as some kind of cheap shot at anyone, but as a Creighton fan I really don’t have any interest in reducing the number of times I see my team play Nova, Hall, Marquette and have those matchups replaced by games against VCU and Dayton or anyone else. For that reason alone I am opposed to expansion.

This. This. This.

Especially considering that any additions would probably result in a divisional format east/west meaning the games we really want to see would be the one most affected. Just stay at 11 forever.

I'm neither for or against expansion at present (although I do believe expansion is inevitable). However, divisional format is for football; basketball leagues no longer do a geographic set-up divisional-wise any more.

I am for whatever brings the Big East the most money - whether that is in terms of TV revenue, tournament bids/wins, etc. If the powers-that-be determine that adding another school, or schools, do/does that, I believe the Big East needs to follow-through on that in order to keep pace with the rising revenues other basketball conferences will inevitably have. Any new program needs to be a basketball-first athletic department, with a large arena, strong fan base that attends home games and has shown it is willing to travel to away games (ala BET), a strong media market, strong academics and an ability to compete annually/consistently for postseason play. UConn checked all of those boxes. Outside of Gonzaga, there are no sure things at the present moment. Could the right additions bring more value to the Big East? That's to folks at a much higher pay grade than me.

Personally, I have been an advocate for schools like SLU, UD and VCU for eventual BE expansion; however, it needs to make sense financially. There is a financial component to our round-robin set-up (I'm not sure what that number is to the Big East); however, there is an amount of money that the Big East will take to tell itself that "the round-robin is no longer valuable). I'd be curious what the number is.

[butlerguy03]

Also, taking Butler as an example, Butler was in the Horizon and A10 with the same or worse contacts than the current A10 contract, but their conference's low media payout didn't define their value to the Big East.

I think part of why VCU wasn't in the original cut was two-fold. First, we were coming from the CAA, which was several ladders down from the Big East. Second, we would have been the only public school. With UConn now in the fold, I think the calculus may be a bit different.

2021 is much, much different than 2012.

Butler had just come off back-to-back national title games and had a marquee coach with historic facilities in a basketball-rich area. Not to mention the NCAA headquarters is 6 miles away. Would BU fit the criteria today? maybe not. At the time, Xavier and Butler were the obvious candidates for #8 and #9. It was #10 that was the final decision and it went, deservingly, to Creighton with it's institutional fit and geographic expansion - TV markets were very much more important just 10 years ago (see Rutgers).

What separates Butler and Creighton from VCU, St. Louis, and Dayton today? Why are they considered more valuable today? Simple - they now have nearly 10 years of "major conference" status. To many casual sports fans, VCU is more like George Mason than Butler.

[Doge McDermott]

Hey guys, popping in to throw gasoline on the fire. Big 12 is rumored to be taking BYU, Cincy, Houston and UCF on Friday. With the imminent implosion of the AAC, should the BE pick the leftovers to expand?

I look forward to your well reasoned discussion. Also, can we finally put to bed expanding with Dayton, VCU and St. Louis? If we don't take AAC teams, we're damn sure not going to pick up anyone else.

[kayako]

That said, last time this came up I posted that VCU currently receives $2 million/year for its media rights. From what I saw then, Georgetown had a similar contract with incentives for up to $2.5 million/year based on performance (with a $2 million ceiling).

I think you should have picked another school to compare with VCU's financial upside. Personally I'd find comparisons between the A10 trio + WSU more interesting, because it's guaranteed that their financial commitment & worth will only go up if they end up in the BE. Georgetown's BET run was the biggest story in college basketball that week. No outside program is worth more than a reinvigorated Georgetown to this conference, not even Gonzaga.

[Savannah Jay]

That said, last time this came up I posted that VCU currently receives $2 million/year for its media rights. From what I saw then, Georgetown had a similar contract with incentives for up to $2.5 million/year based on performance (with a $2 million ceiling).

I think you should have picked another school to compare with VCU's financial upside. Personally I'd find comparisons between the A10 trio + WSU more interesting, because it's guaranteed that their financial commitment & worth will only go up if they end up in the BE. Georgetown's BET run was the biggest story in college basketball that week. No outside program is worth more than a reinvigorated Georgetown to this conference, not even Gonzaga.

^ what he said

And the comment about taking any leftovers from the AAC after Cincy, Houston, and UCF leave...ummm, what? Navy is great academically but not a good basketball school. The couple of good basketball schools left are borderline JUCO's academically. I really like the double round robin and, as stated before, would hate to give up games against Nova, UCONN, Georgetown, etal, (everyone except you-know-who) for anyone in the AAC or A-10. yuck

[kayako]

I really like the double round robin and, as stated before, would hate to give up games against Nova, UCONN, Georgetown, etal, (everyone except you-know-who) for anyone in the AAC or A-10. yuck

For example, Creighton may play ____ only 11 times instead of 12 in a 6 year period. Well, in a fair rotating system with 12 teams that is. An influx of several mid-major schools could be disastrous.