Conference Realignment: What Next?

[GumbyDamnit!]

As a LONG time BE hoops fan this would be how I would LOVE for things to play out. The SEC poaches at least Fl St and Clemson and then snags OSU and UM from the B1G. Maybe they grab Penn St or ND as well. One big, premier super FB conference in which they don't even pretend to be amateur athletics any more. Have at it boys. The rest of the ACC and B1G programs--the UNC's and the VA Tech's and MIA and MD's and MIch ST. decide to create their own 1B conference. They'd be like the PAC 12...Div. 1 but the JV version.

Then the rest of the programs--that were kidding themselves trying to compete at the highest level of collegiate FB level--come to their senses. They park football in some quasi-FCS league, and stop the financial bleeding. Since they can't keep up in the arms race, they decide to focus their efforts on their true love: hoops. KU, Duke, Cuse (F Pitt, F BC), Northwestern (we boot DePaul...sorry Demon fans but it's time and Northwestern gives you Chicago). I have no interest in going down into TX (sorry Baylor). We have east and west--19 conference games (12 H&H in div and 7 in other div). Or go to 16 teams with teams like Wake or ISU...not sure on that yet. But either way imagine KU, Duke and Cuse coming to an All-Hoops conference. Damn!

[Xudash]

Maybe it has been covered, but I cannot remember seeing anything about it: has our media agreement with Fox already adjusted for the addition of UCONN? Remember the disclosure about there being a true-up provision for the addition of numbers 11 or 12. That specifically is what I am wondering about; did we adjust - did Fox adjust - under that provision for the addition of UCONN?

Beyond that, when should we expect negotiations to begin for the new agreement?

Beyond that, should football realignment open up brands that are currently P5/football oriented, it will be interesting to see how the Big East and Fox will balance conference size with media payouts per team, etc. If college football goes to super conferences, with some of the P5 schools getting left behind, and the NCAA tournament survives in the inclusive/Cinderella model, what will that mean for the BE’s direction?

Additions have to make sense economically, and they must want to be a part of our conference.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

Maybe it has been covered, but I cannot remember seeing anything about it: has our media agreement with Fox already adjusted for the addition of UCONN? Remember the disclosure about there being a true-up provision for the addition of numbers 11 or 12. That specifically is what I am wondering about; did we adjust - did Fox adjust - under that provision for the addition of UCONN?

Yes.

New Big East, Fox Sports Formally Ink 12-Year, $500M Deal – Sports Business Journal – March 21, 2013

The new Big East yesterday formally inked a 12-year, $500M contract with Fox Sports, a “sum that will rise" to $600M if, "as expected, the league expands to 12 members,” according to Richard Sandomir of the N.Y. TIMES.

($500,000,000)/(12 years) = $41,666,667/year to the Big East Conference.

($41,666,667/year)/(10 Big East schools) = $4,166,667 per school per year. It will actually be less, as the BE Conference will take about 10% to cover Big East head office salaries and pensions, game officials’ salaries and pensions, travel, meals, and accommodation for all of the preceding personnel, marketing, insurances, consultants, taxes, etc.

..... (0.1)x($4,166,667 per school per year) = $416,667 to the Big East head office per year.

..... (0.9)x($4,166,667 per school per year) = $3,750,000 to each Big East school per year.

It’s Official! UConn joins the Big East Conference - Dan Madigan, SB Nation - July 1, 2020

On July 1, 2020, the escalator clause in the original 2013 TV Rights contract with Fox Sports was automatically activated, increasing the pro-rata value of the contract from $500M to $550M for the addition of one school, resulting in the annual payments to each of the 11 Big East schools remaining at $3,750,000 to each Big East school per year, with an increase of $416,667 to the Big East head office per year to cover the additional expensed incurred as a result of UConn being added to the conference (more games require more game officials, etc.).
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Beyond that, when should we expect negotiations to begin for the new agreement?

Not before the dispute between the Big 12 Conference and ESPN is settled or finally adjudicated. If the case actually goes to a federal court, the verdict will almost certainly be appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court by the losing side – a process that will take years, so the short answer to your question is "not anytime soon".

ESPN responds to Big 12 letter accusing the network of trying to 'destabilize' the league - ESPN News Services – July 29, 2021
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Additions have to make sense economically, and they must want to be a part of our conference.

I agree. Note that none of the present Power Five Conference schools will give up their P5 football revenue, nor realign with non-football schools.

College basketball could stand to benefit from latest round of conference realignment driven by football - Gary Parrish, CBS Sports - August 3, 2021

Football is -- as always -- the driving force behind realignment, but college basketball could end up a winner

The quality of a school's men's basketball program is mostly meaningless in these landscape-changing conversations -- and we were reminded of such recently when the SEC added Texas and Oklahoma, leaving one of the sport's biggest brands (Kansas), the reigning national champ (Baylor) and one of the eight most recent Final Four participants (Texas Tech) in a diminished Big 12 that's vulnerable and perhaps in jeopardy of losing Power Five status.

Baylor Athletic Director Mack Rhoades said: "Being in a Power Five conference is critically important to recruiting students. You just can't buy that quality of publicity. If we are no longer a member of a Power Five conference, we will sell less tickets, we will sell less merchandise, we will raise less money."

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

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I became a big fan of Catholic college basketball long before most of you were born – a passion which has lasted more than 60 years - and became a big fan of the Big East Conference in 2013 (when the football schools left). In fact, since 2013, I have liked the Big East far more than the Atlantic 10 or any of the Power Five conference. Consequently, anyone who thinks that I have any animosity toward the Big East is dead wrong. Every basketball season I root for the Big East to be the #1 conference in the country, and most years, the Big East finishes ahead of some of the P5 conferences in basketball.

Having said that, I find it perplexing that some Big East fans who frequent this board continue to believe that some or any of the P5 schools will want to join the Big East. I can assure that they don’t - for two important reasons: football revenue and the prestige of being a member of a P5 conference.

Approximate Payouts per School: Power Five Conference Schools in 2020

Conference • Total per School • 80% to Football • 20% to Basketball

► Big Ten • $54,300,000 • $43,440,000 • $10,860,000
► SEC • $45,500,000 • $36,400,000 • $9,100,000
► Big 12 • $39,000,000 • $31,200,000 • $7,800,000
► Pac-12 • $35,000,000 • $28,000,000 • $7,000,000
► ACC • $35,000,000 • $28,000,000 • $7,000,000

Additions [to the Big East] have to make sense economically, and they must want to be a part of our conference.

This is perhaps the most logical sentence Xudash has ever posted on HLOH, and I completely agree with it.

I have not researched the athletic department finances of all of the Power Five Conference schools, but it is unlikely that ANY of them lose money on football, because of the revenue generated by it. The conferences whose teams lose money on scholarshipped football would be the American Conference teams (which is why UConn left), and probably all other non-P5 schools.

If it is accepted that none of the Power Five schools are going to give up big-time football, the President of the Big East schools will have to look elsewhere if expansion is contemplated. So the Big East’s options are likely limited to school in the Atlantic 10 or American Athletic Conference.

American Athletic Conference

Institution • Location • Founded • Enrolment

University of Central Florida • Orlando, Florida • 1963 • 68,571
University of Cincinnati • Cincinnati, Ohio • 1819 • 45,949
East Carolina University • Greenville, North Carolina • 1907 • 28,718
University of Houston • Houston, Texas • 1927 • 46,324
University of Memphis • Memphis, Tennessee • 1912 • 21,458
University of South Florida • Tampa, Florida • 1956 • 50,830
Southern Methodist University • Dallas, Texas • 1911 • 11,649
Temple University • Philadelphia, Pennsylvania • 1884 • 39,755
Tulane University • New Orleans, Louisiana • 1834 • 11,722
University of Tulsa • Tulsa, Oklahoma • 1894 • 3,343
Wichita State University • Wichita, Kansas • 1895 • 15,778

Does Football Fund Other Sports At College Level - Kristi Dosh, Attorney, Forbes - May 5, 2011

University of Central Florida • Revenue • Expense • Profit

Football • $15,173,200 • $8,507,856 • $6,665,344
Men’s Basketball • $2,279,998 • $2,134,978 • $145,020
Women’s Basketball • $416,214 • $1,370,168 • -$953,954
Other Sports – Men’s • $805,958 • $1,978,860 • -$1,172,902
Other Sports – Women’s • $1,698,109 • $4,737,880 • -$3,039,771

Athletic Department Net Profit: $1,643,737.00

As you can see, UCF turns a profit when it comes to strictly viewing team revenues and expenses thanks to profits from football and men’s basketball. This is before you add in their $17.5 million in student fees. However, it’s also before you add in costs like coaches salaries ($5.9m), recruiting ($559k), gameday operating expenses ($3.6m) and student aid ($5.7m). With those expenses included, it takes student fees, alumni contributions and other revenue from sources like licensing and advertising to allow UCF to turn an overall profit in the athletic department.

Note that the figures in the table above are 10 years old, and that UCF now has an enrolment of 68,000+, so the amounts have obviously changed significantly. UCF may still be turning a profit in football and basketball, but it is highly unlikely that most AAC school are doing so in 2021. There may be a number of AAC schools that are losing money on football now, but getting rid of a scholarshipped football program is a difficult and irreversible choice for any university.

The biggest disadvantage the Big East has in their next TV Rights contract negotiations is that ESPN is very unlikely to be interested because of their other, bigger TV Rights contracts with Power Five conferences. While it may be entertaining to fantasize about adding P5 schools to the Big East, the truth is that it simply will not happen.
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[gtmoBlue]

Maybe it has been covered, but I cannot remember seeing anything about it: has our media agreement with Fox already adjusted for the addition of UCONN? Remember the disclosure about there being a true-up provision for the addition of numbers 11 or 12. That specifically is what I am wondering about; did we adjust - did Fox adjust - under that provision for the addition of UCONN?

Beyond that, when should we expect negotiations to begin for the new agreement?

Beyond that, should football realignment open up brands that are currently P5/football oriented, it will be interesting to see how the Big East and Fox will balance conference size with media payouts per team, etc. If college football goes to super conferences, with some of the P5 schools getting left behind, and the NCAA tournament survives in the inclusive/Cinderella model, what will that mean for the BE’s direction?

Additions have to make sense economically, and they must want to be a part of our conference.

When looking at those articles highlighted on the previous page, one thing is apparent. Universities have and continue to overspend because of their golden - football. Any major shift this time around in realignment, could collapse the system for many of the non-profitable universities. Their revenues bubble would collapse and many will be forced to massive cuts in their athletic programs...sports, personnel/staffing, building campaigns, would all be affected. Chaos ensues

As for the BEast: Haven't heard how they handled the inclusion of UConn.

The SEC's CBS contract last December was the last to be done early - it moved over to ESPN for 10 years, beginning in 2024. ESPN declined to begin working early on the B12 Contract, citing the changing landscape of the market and too early for 2024/25 negotiations. (If they also knew of the defections of OU/UT then that would have also played a role in the ESPN declining to negotiate early.) I'd expect BE negotiations to begin in 2024 - after a couple have been completed (B1G-2023, PAC12-2024, Big12-2025). The BEast's contract comes due in 2025.

Should F5 schools get shaken out of the Football mix - Welcome to the "New World"! They will experience the shock of the new - as their relative worth will now be far less than they experienced as a F5 member. These schools will face the reality that their brands "don't move the needle" and their revenues will plummet.

The Big East will GROW. We, the Big East can then pick the 'best of the litter' to join our basketball-centered conference. As Gumby expressed above, the BE will be able to get the best brands which make sense geographically, economically, and on the court. For basketball (Gumby's example) - if we go 14, then Duke, S'Cuse, and KU. If we go 16, further add WF and Iowa St.

Such a group add brings hoops value to the conference and increase our conference worth to Fox. Fox would definitely be involved in the selection process-advising the BE for maximum value. We are currently due for financial growth to the $9M/yr per school range, with no further changes. With growth to 14 or 16-prior to 2025, with great hoops additions, we should expect to see new TV revenues in the $11-15M/Yr per school range.

Schools falling from the high 20's and low 30's to AAC levels $7-10M/Yr will experience real culture shock. Look at reality settling in for the Big12 leftover schools. A potential $11-15M/Yr Big East payday will be their best option in the new world order. The smartest amongst them will jump at the opportunity to salvage some pride, some respect, and some dinars - in the Big East.


https://www.espn.com/college-football/s ... -shuffling

https://ncaahoopsdigest.com/2021/06/18/ ... s%20penned.

[pki1998]

For a long time, I’ve been in the camp of poaching a school from the Football Five conferences was a fairy tail (like me landing Jessica Alba). With the recent SEC additions of Texas and Oklahoma, I’m willing flto offically adjust my outlook to a long shot. For this to hav any shot of happing, at a minimum we need a Big10/SEC gutting of the ACC. So the question becomes who we we/Fox be interested in, and would that team be required to de emphasize or even drop down a level in football. Here’s my take

While I’m sure the C7 schools would be hesitant to add more fbs football schools, I feel there are at least two they would be comfortable with.

1) Notre Dame - This of course is only an option if Notre Dame sees football independence as a viable option, and can make an arrangement for bowl access. This isn’t likely but I think the Big East welcomes them back with out the requirement to de emphasize football

2) Syracuse - Granted as an X fan, I’m one of the new kids around here. But to me Syracuse is the only former Big East team that it’s hard to accept them not being in the Big East. I would have to think that the conference would welcome them back with open arms, regardless of what they do with football.

3) Duke - I honestly don’t see a scenario where Duke would be available to us. But if they were the would be a no brainer add. Hell they wouldn’t even have to de emphasize football, they know they are a basketball school

That’s about it for the schools that wouldn’t have to de emphasize football. No assuming they de emphasize football (maybe even drop to fcs, or drop all together) How do we feel about the following schools

1) Boston College - This would seem like an obvious choice, but i’ve gotten the feeling from the Eastern Teams fans that no one really misses Boston College. I would hope that the conference would add them, but short of them dropping out of FBS football I’m not sure we would take them.

2) Wake Forest - This Wake is a great school that I follow because it f the Skip Prossor/Bob Stack connection. But if they got left behind by their ACC brethren, I don’t think the Big East could save them. The only way I could see them getting added is if Duke required it, even in that scenario I see them becoming an anchor.

3) Pitt - Have to admit I’m indifferent to Pitt, but with their history in the conference and geography it’s probably a good idea to allow them in if the drop FBS football

4) Louisville - Maybe I’m bias but they stole my coach, so I say let them rot in hell

5) Cincinnati - Most Xavier fans will disagree, but an say bring em back. Would love to cross town shoot outs a year

6) Other former members (WV, VaTech, Miami (FL), South Florida) these guys don’t fit in with the league so I’m a hard no on these teams

7 Kansas - Helps Creighton not be on so much of an island and a blue blood. Probably have to add them

8) Any other little 8 Teams - I pass, just no interest in any of them

I only listed schools currently with FBS programs in the long run Programs like Dayton, Loyola Chicago, Sain Louis and VCU could still be added in the future.

There are my thoughts what do you guys think?

[Husky_U]

Boston College basketball is UCONN football. Ain't nobody want that.

[GumbyDamnit!]

Boston College basketball is UCONN football. Ain't nobody want that.

And they were the original Fredo. There was a time when BC hoops was a tremendous BE program. Craig Smith, Troy Bell, Dana Barros, John Bagley. In ‘85 they were an Andre Turner (Memphis) buzzer beater away from being the 4th BE team in the FF. But they committed the ultimate betrayal. Screw them. And we have the 2 best programs in New England already. Hard pass if they ever became available.

[DeltaV]

Notre Dame would be the obvious golden child. I know they say that UConn is the only school that had the 'open invitation' to return, but I'd bet just about anything that it exists for the Irish as well, just no one is going to say it out loud. But they're locked in to the ACC for the next decade and a half, and if things really go sideways in the P4/5 leagues, I'm guessing they'll get told that they have to join a full conference if they want to remain a member.

Yes, the Orange, despite all the dislike towards them, I think would be the prodigal child. The only one though, not sure if we'd want Pitt (wouldn't be the worst, I guess we have broken the private conference bubble).

Duke: not going to happen. Too valuable as a brand. Vanderbilt is in a similar place; don't have the football, but excellent academics and I can't imagine southern schools would want to be associated with a bunch of private northern city schools. Wake Forest is in the same boat, but I think there could be some chance there. More of basketball tradition I think, and being in the Big East might give them a little more attention than they get being the 4th North Carolina school. Would require a total implosion of the ACC. I still think even if the ACC implodes and/or the SEC break away, there are enough schools left to be a good second tier league.

Louisville/Cincinnati? Nope. Not even worth the discussion. Same with the other former members.

Kansas? Interesting option, but not sure I'm seeing it. Would be a crazy get, but just seems a little too far fetched.

As for the little guys, bout the only way I see it is if one of them wins a championship (and keeps their coach for the next season).

Oh, and forgot to even mention BC... That's about how worthwhile it would be to bring them back. It would be like getting back together with your psycho ex who gave you a restraining order, after she gets fat.

[Xudash]

Delta, this was coffee-spitting funny:

“It would be like getting back together with your psycho ex who gave you a restraining order, after she gets fat.”