Conference Realignment: What Next?

[GoldenWarrior11]

Reported that OU and Texas have been working on this for the better part of a year. If so, there's no turning back at this point.

As an aside, pretty amazing for all parties to keep this hush-hush for so long.

They kept Texas A&M in the dark for this whole time. It is clear that A&M leaked the story in attempts to blow up the deal. Must be tough for A&M leadership and fans to swallow - it's like your new partner going behind your back with your ex. Ugly.

[Omaha1]

Pretty wild times. Is there a chance for the Big 12 to survive by adding some AAC schools or will the CFP simply treat that league the way they have the Group of 5 ?

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

Link: first post on Texas and Oklahoma:

Well, well:

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/big-12-powers-texas-oklahoma-inquire-about-joining-sec-in-potentially-massive-shakeup-per-report/

If Texas and Oklahoma are serious about joining the SEC, the SEC would be foolish to refuse their admissions.

The University of Texas is the academic jewel in the Big 12's crown, and Texas has the country’s most valuable football program, valued by the Wall Street Journal as being worth $1,105,493,378 in 2018, with a 2018 revenue of $163,928,296.

Oklahoma has the country’s seventh most valuable football program, valued by the Wall Street Journal as being worth $885,558,053 in 2018, with a 2018 revenue of $126,416,865.


2018 College Football Value Rankings - Ryan Brewer, Wall Street Journal – 2019 (115 schools ranked)

2018 College Basketball Value Rankings - Ryan Brewer, Wall Street Journal – 2019 (176 schools ranked)


Texas has the country’s 26th most valuable basketball program, valued by the Wall Street Journal as being worth $78,658,000 in 2018.

Oklahoma has the country’s 45th most valuable basketball program, valued by the Wall Street Journal as being worth $51,865,000 in 2018.


Link: post on Off Topic board:

TABLE 4: Niche's 2021 Best Colleges in America - SCHOOL RANKINGS

Niche Rank • Niche Grade • School • Conference • Niche Net Price

11 • A+ • Vanderbilt Commodores • Southeastern • $25,855
56 • A+ • Florida Gators • Southeastern • $10,457
59 • A+ • Georgia Bulldogs • Southeastern • $15,961
80 • A+ • Texas A&M Aggies • Southeastern • $19,237
134 • A • Auburn Tigers • Southeastern • $23,562
161 • A • South Carolina Gamecocks • Southeastern • $21,787
164 • A • Alabama Crimson Tide • Southeastern • $20,623
167 • A- • Mississippi State Bulldogs • Southeastern • $16,471
175 • A- • Missouri Tigers • Southeastern • $15,850
182 • A- • Arkansas Razorbacks • Southeastern • $16,263
201 • A- • Ole Miss Rebels • Southeastern • $14,672
223 • A- • Tennessee Volunteers • Southeastern • $21,024
241 • A- • LSU Tigers • Southeastern • $18,143
283 • B+ • Kentucky Wildcats • Southeastern • $18,958
153 • Southeastern Conference - Average Niche Ranking for 14 Schools

57 • A+ • Texas Longhorns • Big 12 • $15,502
110 • A • TCU Horned Frogs • Big 12 • $37,509
137 • A • Baylor Bears • Big 12 • $28,372
148 • A • Iowa State Cyclones • Big 12 • $15,195
156 • A • Oklahoma Sooners • Big 12 • $21,804
160 • A • Oklahoma State Cowboys • Big 12 • $15,325
165 • A • Kansas State Wildcats • Big 12 • $18,103
179 • A- • Texas Tech Red Raiders • Big 12 • $16,463
193 • A- • Kansas Jayhawks • Big 12 • $19,195
276 • A- • West Virginia Mountaineers • Big 12 • $12,743
158 • Big 12 Conference - Average Niche Ranking for 10 Schools

[GoldenWarrior11]

Pretty wild times. Is there a chance for the Big 12 to survive by adding some AAC schools or will the CFP simply treat that league the way they have the Group of 5 ?

With the proposed expanded CFP likely to take effect, there really will be no P5/G5 designation. The top six conference champions will each make the playoff, which very well could still be the Big 12 as one of them. What could blow everything up is if the Big 12 decides to go beyond ten teams, and return to a 12-team conference. BYU, for several reasons, will likely be considered for an expansion invitation, but with the perceived drop in reputation (especially against the PAC, which Utah remains in), I don't see BYU going to the B12. Boise State, given its past success in football, will be under consideration, as well Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, Memphis, SMU and USF. Beyond that, I don't think there's really much else to seriously consider. Cincinnati should be the first call for #9; they have a very strong athletic budget, have a strong football and basketball program and can act as a bridge/travel partner for West Virginia. Houston, IMO, is not as a lock for #10 as some believe; they, for various reasons, do not get fans to football games, rarely getting over 30k. Houston is a lost market for the Big 12, but Houston barely penetrates it. They would be a strong basketball addition, which Kansas may support. Memphis has FedEx backing, a growing football program and a strong men's basketball program; but their academics are atrocious, and that will likely turn off Kansas/Iowa State/TCU/Baylor. UCF, while not a strong men's basketball program, does have a top-25 football program, with tremendous fan support and access into Florida. USF, which could be UCF, just isn't there yet, and it might never be.

If I were advising the Big 12, I would have them go with Cincinnati and UCF for #9 and #10 in the interim, with the possibility to move to twelve with Houston and Memphis down the road.

If I'm Aresco/AAC, I'm shaking in my boots. Just when you think you get an easy access spot into the CFP, you are looking at being raided of (at least) your top two programs. If the Big 12 leaves the MWC alone (Boise/SDSU), it is very possible the MWC is left as strong (or even stronger) than the AAC.

For basketball, this is very good news for the Big East. It even more so separates the power conferences from the non-power conferences, and the Big 12 - even though it will remain a power league with Kansas - losses two very strong programs in Texas and Oklahoma. Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State are very strong programs to keep the league strong; but it definitely loses starpower in Texas/Oklahoma.

[Omaha1]

Good thoughts GW11.

If I am an administrator at a remaining B12 school, I’m on the phone with the other Power football leagues to see if they’ve got a spot for me. That’s the trouble with B12 “recruiting” from the leftovers for example. Imagine you are at BYU or UCF, don’t you want to see who from the B12 are truly committed before you sign up? The worst thing that could happen would be to join the B12 and then have it fall apart at the seams the way the Big East did during their Boise fiasco.

[kayako]

There's nothing magic about the number 16. The remaining Big 12 schools will all be looking for an invite to the PAC/B1G/ACC but I'm skeptical very many will find a home. Then they backfill with G5 schools.

That's what I think, too. It's not like the SEC got to 16 for the sake of reaching 16. Even if a couple more B12 teams get poached by PAC12/B1G, there will be enough schools left to backfill from the AAC & BYU while collecting massive divorce money. It'd still be a power conference in both sports.

[ArmyVet]

There's nothing magic about the number 16. The remaining Big 12 schools will all be looking for an invite to the PAC/B1G/ACC but I'm skeptical very many will find a home. Then they backfill with G5 schools.

That's what I think, too. It's not like the SEC got to 16 for the sake of reaching 16. Even if a couple more B12 teams get poached by PAC12/B1G, there will be enough schools left to backfill from the AAC & BYU while collecting massive divorce money. It'd still be a power conference in both sports.

The divorce money becomes a key piece that I hadn't thought about. Lots of speculation out there that OK and Texas could get out of paying if the whole league ending up dissolving, but the "losers" in the deal who get stuck in the Big 12 might be enriched substantially by holding things together with whomever they can.

[kayako]

Lots of speculation out there that OK and Texas could get out of paying if the whole league ending up dissolving, but the "losers" in the deal who get stuck in the Big 12 might be enriched substantially by holding things together with whomever they can.

Yeah, and tourney credits, too, and they'll have no trouble enticing top G5 schools because even in a reduced state, B12 does not have the Tulsas and ECUs to split the revenue with. AAC's P6 campaign probably ended with this, I think.

[GoldenWarrior11]

There's nothing magic about the number 16. The remaining Big 12 schools will all be looking for an invite to the PAC/B1G/ACC but I'm skeptical very many will find a home. Then they backfill with G5 schools.

That's what I think, too. It's not like the SEC got to 16 for the sake of reaching 16. Even if a couple more B12 teams get poached by PAC12/B1G, there will be enough schools left to backfill from the AAC & BYU while collecting massive divorce money. It'd still be a power conference in both sports.

The divorce money becomes a key piece that I hadn't thought about. Lots of speculation out there that OK and Texas could get out of paying if the whole league ending up dissolving, but the "losers" in the deal who get stuck in the Big 12 might be enriched substantially by holding things together with whomever they can.

The exit fees from Texas and Oklahoma will be just over $150 million, paid out through the end of the current GOR in 2025. Assuming Texas and Oklahoma are in the Big 12 through only this next year, that would mean there would be three years of exits fees to distribute to the Big 8 (remaining members of the Big 12). It comes out to, roughly, $19 million per school, just over $6 million per school per year. In the long-run those are peanuts. I liken it to the scene in Goodfellas, where Henry Hill is given a wad of cash from Paulie, after he loses his connections and associations. "Thirty-two hundred dollars he gave me. Thirty-two hundred dollars for a lifetime. It wasn't even enough to pay for the coffin."

I wouldn't be shocked to see the new Big 12 TV deal pay out below $20 million per member annually, with the losses of Texas and Oklahoma. It might very well be in the $15 million range, assuming it just picks up a Cincinnati or UCF. That, in turn, rips up the AAC TV contract and drops their value likely below $5 million.

[ArmyVet]

Lots of speculation out there that OK and Texas could get out of paying if the whole league ending up dissolving, but the "losers" in the deal who get stuck in the Big 12 might be enriched substantially by holding things together with whomever they can.

Yeah, and tourney credits, too, and they'll have no trouble enticing top G5 schools because even in a reduced state, B12 does not have the Tulsas and ECUs to split the revenue with. AAC's P6 campaign probably ended with this, I think.

I always forget that West Virginia is in the Big 12 too. What happens to them? Only the ACC makes sense geographically, but would they want them?