Conference Realignment: What Next?

[ArmyVet]

Let's say that OU and Texas go to the SEC?

What's the next move? ACC and Big Ten trying to get to 16 or the Big 12 quickly adding Houston/UCF/Cincy before that league collapses entirely?

[Bogg]

Let's say that OU and Texas go to the SEC?

What's the next move? ACC and Big Ten trying to get to 16 or the Big 12 quickly adding Houston/UCF/Cincy before that league collapses entirely?

There's nothing magic about the number 16. The remaining Big 12 schools will all be looking for an invite to the PAC/B1G/ACC but I'm skeptical very many will find a home. Then they backfill with G5 schools.

[Omaha1]

Let's say that OU and Texas go to the SEC?

What's the next move? ACC and Big Ten trying to get to 16 or the Big 12 quickly adding Houston/UCF/Cincy before that league collapses entirely?

There's nothing magic about the number 16. The remaining Big 12 schools will all be looking for an invite to the PAC/B1G/ACC but I'm skeptical very many will find a home. Then they backfill with G5 schools.

The Big 12 would be screwed. Who wants TxTech or Okie State, not to mention Iowa St or KSt? Kansas might find a P5 league but the remaining league members would basically become AAC v2.0.

[Bogg]

Let's say that OU and Texas go to the SEC?

What's the next move? ACC and Big Ten trying to get to 16 or the Big 12 quickly adding Houston/UCF/Cincy before that league collapses entirely?

There's nothing magic about the number 16. The remaining Big 12 schools will all be looking for an invite to the PAC/B1G/ACC but I'm skeptical very many will find a home. Then they backfill with G5 schools.

The Big 12 would be screwed. Who wants TxTech or Okie State, not to mention Iowa St or KSt? Kansas might find a P5 league but the remaining league members would basically become AAC v2.0.

The PAC will kick the tires on the remaining schools. Geography dictates that the logical next adds are in that pile. Wouldn't be surprised to see Kansas get a serious look.

[butlerguy03]

I really think Kansas would fit the Big Ten well. I know football isn't great, but imagine adding KU basketball to Michigan, Michigan St., Ohio State, Illinois, Indiana...just incredible. The Big Ten did court Virginia and Georgia Tech in the past as well. They have a history of poaching the ACC. I could see the Big Ten doing a Kansas/Virginia 2-fer, which would add the KC, DC, Richmond TV markets.

If this Texas & Oklahoma move happens to the SEC, let's remember the biggest brains in all of realignment - Mizzou. They got in before they got demoted.

[Xudash]

Unlikely that this move trickles down to the Big East right away, but it could be the first move toward 4 x 16 team leagues which might be a problem.

One thing that it could likely do for the conference is prevent Fox from totally blowing their budget on the Big 12. It doesn't mean the Big East would necessarily get more money than they would otherwise, but it could lighten up some of the downward financial pressure during negotiations.

EDIT: I also don't think 4x16 works because it requires the B1G and PAC to find 6 suitable adds between them and ND to join the ACC for football.

My question is whether the ACC would poach the Big Ten, or vice versa?

If one is going to poach from the other, then it would be the B1G doing the poaching. It is the more powerful of those two conferences. And it has already poached the ACC - taking Maryland.

Otherwise, media packages have to work in order for a conference to be willing to expand. Period. End of story.

Would it make sense from a TV dollar-flow standpoint for the SEC to add Texas and Oklahoma? Of course it does.

Now, move on from there to realize that:

1. The Big12 would be gutted if UT and OU leave:

- It couldn't get to 12 for a media package that made sense the last time it tried and that was with UT and OU.

- It can get to 12, but the point is that it would get there as a diminished conference with lower per school media payouts.

- UC would still join it and then believe they finally made it to "hot shit" status, which is entertaining.


2. There probably would not be any requirement for balanced conferences; a requirement for 16 teams each. The B1G isn't going to pick up scraps just for the sake of leveling off at 16. Again, media package valuations will drive it. Kansas, for its basketball program, when you are solving for football? Nope, unless the TV dollars can be modeled to work.


3. This has nothing to do with basketball. NO ONE has any interest in slaughtering the golden calf - the NCAAT. Everyone understands that its appeal is in its inclusiveness and that the eyeballs on it during the first weekend aren't due to 64 football schools.

Perhaps an unbalanced P4, then a reconstituted diminished Big12 that takes the AAC's place in stature, and an AAC that backfills with C-USA, etc.

Thank God for the Big East.

[GoldenWarrior11]

We are moving towards both the SEC and B1G acquiring and consolidating all of the top remaining brands in college athletics. I very much see, eventually, the B1G taking the AAU PAC programs, along with the "Holy Grail" - UNC, Virginia, Duke and Georgia Tech - that was the original Jim Delaney vision. The SEC, in addition to Texas and Oklahoma, would eventually acquire Florida State, Clemson, NC State, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, West Virginia and a few others. What we finish with is two national ultra-conferences that replace the NCAA as the higher authority in governance and oversight in college athletics. This is the start of slicing off the non-valuable entities in the P5 - the Kansas States, Washington States, Oregon States, Wake Forests, etc. - and keeping all of the revenues (and more) to the top grouping. Between the NIL and the expansion of the CFP, this is all coordinated. We are likely in for a rogue wave of realignment that will make the 2010-11 cycle look like a kiddy pool.

[Omaha1]

Let’s just absorb an entire western flank by bringing in Gonzaga, BYU, Kansas, Baylor.

[Xudash]

We are moving towards both the SEC and B1G acquiring and consolidating all of the top remaining brands in college athletics. I very much see, eventually, the B1G taking the AAU PAC programs, along with the "Holy Grail" - UNC, Virginia, Duke and Georgia Tech - that was the original Jim Delaney vision. The SEC, in addition to Texas and Oklahoma, would eventually acquire Florida State, Clemson, NC State, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, West Virginia and a few others. What we finish with is two national ultra-conferences that replace the NCAA as the higher authority in governance and oversight in college athletics. This is the start of slicing off the non-valuable entities in the P5 - the Kansas States, Washington States, Oregon States, Wake Forests, etc. - and keeping all of the revenues (and more) to the top grouping. Between the NIL and the expansion of the CFP, this is all coordinated. We are likely in for a rogue wave of realignment that will make the 2010-11 cycle look like a kiddy pool.

Very interesting. Practically would become the antithesis of the NCAAT basketball side of the world.

And why not? The playoff system will get figured out, whether it flows from a 4x16 or 2x32 or XxY structure.

I totally agree with you about this being the beginning of slicing off the pretenders. BC, Wake and the "smaller" state schools in remote regions of the country aren't well positioned for this change.

Your bolded and underlined statement represents the end game for us - - the Big East. I can't see where the football powers simply do not understand the existing power and appeal of the NCAAT as it exists today. The NCAA organization itself has rightfully maneuvered its way into a precarious position. The whole new thing of student-athletes making money from NIL's is a factor.

Old data, but insightful: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Collegiate_Athletic_Association#Finances.

Which entity will cut the paychecks for NCAAT participation/performance in the future, assuming it remains inclusive?

How will the politicians step in to arrest some of the consolidation of power, because Columbus, Ohio and Tuscaloosa, Alabama, among a relative few others are going to become very powerful if all this comes home to roost.

[ArmyVet]

The PAC will kick the tires on the remaining schools. Geography dictates that the logical next adds are in that pile. Wouldn't be surprised to see Kansas get a serious look.

Kansas has a good men's basketball team and literally nothing else. They could be in big big trouble.