2021 Rankings

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

I found this interesting:

SEC Standings - ESPN

Last Place: Kentucky Wildcats (1-6, 0-0)

Big 10 Standings - ESPN

First Place: Northwestern Wildcats (6-1, 3-0)

Kentucky Wildcats (1-6) Schedule & Results - ESPN

Consecutive losses to Richmond, #7 Kansas, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, #22 North Carolina, Louisville.

Northwestern Wildcats (6-1) Schedule & Results - ESPN

Consecutive wins over #4 Michigan State (79-65), @ Indiana (74-67), and #23 Ohio State (71-70). One loss, to Pittsburgh (71-70).

2021 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings - kenpom.com - Data through games of Sunday, December 27, 2020

Rank. Team • Conference • W-L

49. Seton Hall • BE • 6-4
50. Loyola Chicago • MVC • 5-2
51. Marquette • BE • 5-5
52. Kentucky • SEC • 1-6
53. Northwestern • Big 10 • 6-1

Wow. Kentucky is one place ahead of Northwestern in this morning’s Kenpom Ratings. And in the NCAA’s brand new, super-secret NET Rankings (which have still not been published yet), winning basketball games is no longer a factor in the NET Rankings formula, meaning that Kentucky’s 6 losses will not hurt them at all in the NET Rankings, but losing to ‘good teams’ will help them a lot (as the NCAA intended).

Perhaps the NCAA is withholding their first release of the NET Rankings because of concern that Kentucky is ‘way too high’ in the NET Rankings, and the NCAA doesn’t want to look like idiots [again] for completely eliminating ‘winning’ from their new NET Rankings formula. I’m old school, and I think that winning a basketball game should still count for something, even if it’s only 1% of the NET Rankings formula.

What's changed with the NCAA's NET rankings tool – Joe Lunardi, ESPN – May 12, 2020

For the second time in less than two years, the primary selection and seeding metric for the NCAA men's basketball committee has been changed. It was announced Monday that the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET), which replaced the long-standing Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) in August 2018, has been reduced to two components from its original five for the 2020-21 season.

The two remaining components are Team Value Index (TVI) and adjusted efficiency. Gone are winning percentage, adjusted winning percentage, and scoring margin.

The best way to think of TVI and adjusted efficiency may be with a pair of questions: Who did you play and how did you play? RPI was primarily a measure of the "who," whereas the first iteration of NET was a reasonable attempt at measuring the "how." This newly revised and still undisclosed NET formula appears to be an attempt to combine the two, while retaining an increased emphasis on the "how" and perhaps eliminating some of the less-than-credible early-season NET releases.

With the precise calculations kept confidential, we are left for now to compare metrics in the public domain. The top public efficiency ratings in college basketball remain those of the inimitable Ken Pomeroy, or KenPom. Aspiring bracketologists will want to bookmark that site in addition to the daily NET updates from the NCAA beginning in December.

Men’s Basketball RPI - RealTimeRPI.com – updated Monday, December 28, 2020

63. Northwestern
226. Kentucky

The ol’ RPI had its shortcomings, but winning basketball games still counted for something back then.
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Latest AP men’s basketball Top 25: Rutgers soars, ACC has no Top 10 teams - Donna Ditota, syracuse.com - December 21, 2020

Donna Ditota wrote: ”I’m among the AP men’s basketball poll voters. Scroll below to see the ballot I submitted Sunday night and my rationale for choosing those teams:”

1) Gonzaga 1597 (61 First place votes)
2) Baylor 1538 (3 First place votes)
3) Kansas 1426
4) Iowa 1365
5) Villanova 1304
6) Houston 1272
7) West Virginia 1225
8) Tennessee 1109
9) Wisconsin 1051
10) Texas 1035

11) Rutgers 878
12) Michigan State 839
13) Creighton 773
14) Missouri 768

15) Texas Tech 661

16) Virginia 510
17) North Carolina 492
18) Illinois 468

19) Michigan 367
20) Duke 352
21) Florida State 335
22) Xavier 249
23) Ohio State 245

24) Virginia Tech 181
25) Oregon 167
26) San Diego State 146
27) Richmond 142

28) Saint Louis 64
29) Arkansas 54
30) Indiana 53

31) Clemson 28
32) Florida 20
33) Georgia 19
34) Colorado 13
35) Brigham Young 9
35) Purdue 9
37) Louisville 8
38) Northwestern 7
39) UCF 6
40) Minnesota 4
41) UCLA 3
41) Oklahoma State 3
43) LSU 2
43) Western Kentucky 2
45) SMU 1

New AP men’s basketball Top 25: Where are all the ACC teams? - Donna Ditota, syracuse.com - December 28, 2020

1) Gonzaga 1598 (62First place votes)
2) Baylor 1537 (2 First place votes)
3) Kansas 1458
4) Villanova 1370
5) Houston 1313
6) Wisconsin 1249
7) Tennessee 1217
8) Texas 1109
9) West Virginia 1080
10) Iowa 1008

11) Creighton 926
12) Missouri 888
13) Texas Tech 821

14) Rutgers 658
15) Illinois 648
16) Michigan 580

17) Michigan State 440
18) Florida State 376
19) Northwestern 348

20) Duke 294
21) Oregon 250
21) Minnesota 250
23) Virginia 238
24) Virginia Tech 230
25) Ohio State 215

26) Xavier 177
27) San Diego State 172

28) North Carolina 57
29) Arkansas 56
30) Clemson 50
30) Colorado 50
32) Saint Louis 49

33) Florida 20
34) Louisville 18
35) Brigham Young 12
36) Georgia 10
37) North Carolina State 8
38) UCLA 4
38) Indiana 4
40) Richmond 3
41) UCF 2
41) Western Kentucky 2
41) Boise State 2
44) SMU 1
44) Chattanooga 1
44) Drake 1

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Meanwhile, back in Lexington, preseason expectations are not being met, and people are not happy.

2020 Basketball Team Commitment Rankings – 247 Sports

1. Kentucky • 6 Commits • Average Rating: 0.9892 • (2 five-star and 4 four-star commitments)

Kentucky 2020 Basketball Commitments – 247 Sports

National Rank: 1 • SEC Rank: 1 • Average Rating: 0.9892

SEC expert picks, 2020-21 preview: Loaded Tennessee tops rebuilding Kentucky - Gary Parrish, CBS Sports - October 22, 2020

2. Kentucky

Kentucky, per usual, is basically starting from scratch after the top six scorers from last season's team either entered the NBA Draft or exhausted their eligibility. Only one player, Keion Brooks, is back. And he only averaged 4.5 points and 3.2 rebounds in 15.1 minutes per game. But there's no need to feel too sorry for John Calipari because, once again, he's enrolled the nation's top-ranked recruiting class, one that's highlighted by five-star guards BJ Boston and Terrence Clarke. So, sure, the Wildcats will be heavily reliant on first-year players, which sometimes makes the season a bit of a rollercoaster. But Kentucky will simply be able to out-talent much of its competition -- especially now that Olivier Sarr, a transfer from Wake Forest, has received a waiver from the SEC to play immediately. He'll provide a veteran presence in the frontcourt that otherwise would not exist.

2021 Preseason AP Men's Basketball Poll – Associated Press – November 9, 2020

Rank Team Conference Points

1. Gonzaga (28 First place votes) West Coast 1541 points
2. Baylor (24) Big 12 1540
3. Villanova (11) Big East 1501
4. Virginia (1) ACC 1364
5. Iowa Big Ten 1273
6. Kansas Big 12 1221
7. Wisconsin Big Ten 1150
8. Illinois Big Ten 1105
9. Duke ACC 1073
10. Kentucky SEC 1038
11. Creighton Big East 922
12. Tennessee SEC 919
13. Michigan State Big Ten 820
14. Texas Tech Big 12 790
15. West Virginia Big 12 651
16. North Carolina ACC 465
17. Houston American 438
18. Arizona State Pac-12 402
19. Texas Big 12 380
20. Oregon Pac-12 375
21. Florida State ACC 351
22. UCLA Pac-12 336
23. Ohio State Big Ten 270
24. Rutgers Big Ten 190
25. Michigan Big Ten 160

Louisville beats Kentucky; Wildcats fall to 1-6 on season - Kyle Boone, CBS Sports – December 26, 2020

Louisville drops Kentucky to 1-6 with 62-59 rivalry win - Mike Rutherford, CardinalChronicle (SB Nation) – December 26, 2020

Kentucky was once again plagued by its poor outside shooting, mainly beyond the arc where it was just 5-of-17. Four of those makes came from Creighton grad transfer Davion Mintz, who scored a team-high 19 points.

Ex-Creighton Guard Davion Mintz Transfers to Kentucky; Averaged 9.7 PPG in 2018 - Adam Wells, Bleacher Report - April 10, 2020

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

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Tuesday, December 29, 2020: AP #10 Iowa 87, AP #19 Northwestern 72 (@ Iowa)

2021 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings - kenpom.com - Data through games of Tuesday, December 29, 2020

Rank. Team • Conference • W-L

1. Gonzaga • WCC • 9-0
2. Baylor • B12 • 7-0
3. Villanova • BE • 8-1
4. Iowa • B10 • 8-2
14. Creighton • BE • 7-2

45. Xavier • BE • 8-1
47. Connecticut • BE • 3-1
50. Seton Hall • BE • 6-4
52. Kentucky • SEC • 1-6
53. Marquette • BE • 5-5
55. Northwestern • Big 10 • 6-2

62. Providence • BE • 6-3
72. Butler • BE • 2-3
87. DePaul • BE • 1-1
92. St. John's • BE • 6-4
109. Georgetown • BE • 3-5

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

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2021 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings - kenpom.com - Data through games of Wednesday, December 30, 2020

Rank. Team • Conference • W-L

3. Villanova • BE • 8-1
16. Creighton • BE • 7-2

37. Seton Hall • BE • 7-4
40. Connecticut • BE • 4-1

53. Marquette • BE • 5-5
55. Xavier • BE • 8-2
59. Providence • BE • 7-3

83. Butler • BE • 2-4
88. St. John's • BE • 6-4
92. DePaul • BE • 1-2
106. Georgetown • BE • 3-5

[Jet915]

Big East Kenpoms:
3-Villanova
16-Creighton
35-Seton Hall
38-UConn
51-Marquette
55-Xavier
58-Providence
84-Butler
93-St. John's
95-DePaul
106-Georgetown

Looks like 4-6 bids, bottom 4 is forming.

[kayako]

NET rankings through 1/3 games:

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

This looks awful for the Big East. It still looks like the way to play the system is racking up wins + big margins, which BE didn't really do.

[Hall2012]

NET rankings through 1/3 games:

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

This looks awful for the Big East. It still looks like the way to play the system is racking up wins + big margins, which BE didn't really do.

This might be worse than the RPI ever was...

[GreatDaneAttorney]

I assume that still means 5 bids, or maybe 4 if the ball bounces the wrong way a few times. I don't really see the problem, especially in a 'rona year. Just the eye test alone suggests it's a down year for the conference.

[kayako]

I assume that still means 5 bids, or maybe 4 if the ball bounces the wrong way a few times. I don't really see the problem, especially in a 'rona year. Just the eye test alone suggests it's a down year for the conference.

The problem is half the conference games will be quad 3 and quad 4.

[Jet915]

5 Villanova
30 Creighton
44 Seton Hall
46 Xavier
48 UConn
63 Marquette
78 Providence
112 St. John's (NY)
149 Georgetown
155 DePaul
170 Butler

Not great but give it a few weeks as more conference games are played, there are a few outliers still like Colgate, Boise State, Drake, Winthrop who will drop as they play more conference games. Still looks like 4-6 bids.

[Jet915]

NET Breakdown by leagues (Top 50):

Big Ten: 11
Big 12: 7
SEC: 6
ACC: 6
Big East: 5
Pac-12: 4
M-West: 3
AAC: 2
A-10: 2
WCC: 1
MVC: 1
Patriot: 1
Big South: 1