stever20 wrote:The thing is 1-2 seeds can make a lot of difference. I mean, say you were a 3 seed entering the conference tourney. You flame out and lose 1st round. You drop to a 4 seed. You now have a much tougher 2nd (err 3rd) round game, and then you are playing the #1 seed in the regional sf. Now, take in contrast to the team that was a 6 seed originally but wins the conference tourney. a lot of times that gets you a 2 seed bump.
1 seeds vs 16 seeds 116-0 100% vs 8 seeds 60-14 vs 9 seeds 62-7 122-21 vs 8/9 seeds
2 seeds vs 15 seeds 109-7 94.0% vs 7 seeds 61-21 vs 10 seeds 31-21 92-42 vs 7/10 seeds
3 seeds- vs 14 seeds 99-17 85.3% vs 6 seeds 44-37 vs 11 seeds 31-12 75-49 vs 6/11 seeds
4 seeds vs 13 seeds 91-25 78.4% vs 5 seeds 46-37 vs 12 seeds 21-12 67-49 vs 5/12 seeds
5 seeds vs 12 seeds 92-44 67.6% vs 4 seeds 37-46 vs 13 seeds 11-3 48-49 vs 4/13 seeds
6 seeds vs 11 seeds 91-45 66.9% vs 3 seeds 37-44 vs 14 seeds 12-2 49-46 vs 3/14 seeds
The only one where the seed doesn't matter is between a 5/6 seed. But generally speaking, if you win the regular season and then flame out in the conference tourney, you go between a 1 to a 2, a 2 to a 3 type thing. And, those are huge differences.
DumpsterFireA10 wrote:If my school gets out of the Dumpster Fire they put themselves in.
I'm rooting for Xavier in the Big East for the time being...so here goes.
1...Top 4 Finish
2...8 or better seed in the Tournament
3...BE Conference Tournament Final
4...Semaj for POY
OutlawWales wrote:I'll be curious to see what fans of Creighton, Butler, X, think of this question.
As a Creighton fan, I know that my personal perspective over the years has been that a season isn't particularly successful without either a regular season or conference tourney championship. When playing in a conference viewed as mid-major, there is so little room for any kind of error -- losing to almost anyone can be perceived as a "bad" loss, can ruin your chances of getting into the NCAA tourney or at least ruin chances of a decent seed, etc., that teams like Creighton, Butler (when in the Horizon anyway), and maybe X (though the A10 was a bit different) really had to set the bar pretty high to measure "success." I would imagine fans of Gonzaga would feel similarly -- if Gonzaga doesn't win the regular season and tourney, in that conference, I would guess most fans would not consider the season a success.
Creighton fans have debated the regular season title vs. the tourney title for years. In the MVC, the Jays absolutely dominated the conference tourney -- people renamed it the Bluejay Invitational! The Jays were pretty consistently considered a threat to win that title in most years, even doing so when not finishing in the top 2 in the regular season. Wichita State, on the other hand, was more consistent at maintaining throughout the season and winning the regular season, only to choke in the tourney time after time after time. In the MVC, that distinction was especially important because the tourney winner got the auto bid to the NCAA tourney, and the conference could never feel safe that its regular season winner would get in. For that reason, most Jays fans would say that they favored the tourney title because it meant more in the sense of carrying that auto bid -- but many also longed for more regular season titles, because they arguably show a better measure of the program over the course of the entire season. Now the NBE will also be a round-robin conference where everyone plays everyone home and away, I suspect some of you will come to view the regular season title with more reverence than you might have under the older scheme. And that isn't to take anything away from what is typically a grueling conference tourney that is a great litmus test for NCAA performance.
Now, with the higher quality of teams across the board, and hopefully a more forgiving perspective by national media, etc., the measures of success can really be reevaluated for some of us "new" guys. It's huge to be in a conference where finishing in the top 3 can be considered a great season and can still lead to NCAA bids, decent seeds, etc.
For me, for this year, I think Creighton fans have to set the bar pretty high, though. We've got a lot of great players coming back, including a pretty rare 2 time All American, and will be entering the season ranked and projected to compete for the conference title. After this year, we lose quite a few key components. That's when new recruiting, etc., will come into play and there will be a lot of uncertainty. So in some ways it's kind of a make it or break it year for Jays fans -- if we don't compete and have a great year this year, it could be a while before we do. So I think for this to be a successful first year in the NBE for Creighton, the Jays need to finish no lower than third in the regular season race (and need to be within a game or two, tops, of the top spot), need to make it to at least the semi-finals of the conference tourney, and need to break at least the Sweet 16 (and more likely get to at least the Elite 8). Those are pretty lofty, but when considering what a season of underperformance this year might mean for the near future, I think it's fair.
aughnanure wrote:stever20 wrote:The thing is 1-2 seeds can make a lot of difference. I mean, say you were a 3 seed entering the conference tourney. You flame out and lose 1st round. You drop to a 4 seed. You now have a much tougher 2nd (err 3rd) round game, and then you are playing the #1 seed in the regional sf. Now, take in contrast to the team that was a 6 seed originally but wins the conference tourney. a lot of times that gets you a 2 seed bump.
1 seeds vs 16 seeds 116-0 100% vs 8 seeds 60-14 vs 9 seeds 62-7 122-21 vs 8/9 seeds
2 seeds vs 15 seeds 109-7 94.0% vs 7 seeds 61-21 vs 10 seeds 31-21 92-42 vs 7/10 seeds
3 seeds- vs 14 seeds 99-17 85.3% vs 6 seeds 44-37 vs 11 seeds 31-12 75-49 vs 6/11 seeds
4 seeds vs 13 seeds 91-25 78.4% vs 5 seeds 46-37 vs 12 seeds 21-12 67-49 vs 5/12 seeds
5 seeds vs 12 seeds 92-44 67.6% vs 4 seeds 37-46 vs 13 seeds 11-3 48-49 vs 4/13 seeds
6 seeds vs 11 seeds 91-45 66.9% vs 3 seeds 37-44 vs 14 seeds 12-2 49-46 vs 3/14 seeds
The only one where the seed doesn't matter is between a 5/6 seed. But generally speaking, if you win the regular season and then flame out in the conference tourney, you go between a 1 to a 2, a 2 to a 3 type thing. And, those are huge differences.
Well first off, no one knows what seed they wouldv'e been before. But most predicted Marquette would get a 3 before and they got a 3. Louisville was getting a 1 regardless. It isn't as important ion the committee's eyes as you'd like to think.
The regular season influences your seed more than the conference tournament. Period.
stever20 wrote:aughnanure wrote:stever20 wrote:The thing is 1-2 seeds can make a lot of difference. I mean, say you were a 3 seed entering the conference tourney. You flame out and lose 1st round. You drop to a 4 seed. You now have a much tougher 2nd (err 3rd) round game, and then you are playing the #1 seed in the regional sf. Now, take in contrast to the team that was a 6 seed originally but wins the conference tourney. a lot of times that gets you a 2 seed bump.
1 seeds vs 16 seeds 116-0 100% vs 8 seeds 60-14 vs 9 seeds 62-7 122-21 vs 8/9 seeds
2 seeds vs 15 seeds 109-7 94.0% vs 7 seeds 61-21 vs 10 seeds 31-21 92-42 vs 7/10 seeds
3 seeds- vs 14 seeds 99-17 85.3% vs 6 seeds 44-37 vs 11 seeds 31-12 75-49 vs 6/11 seeds
4 seeds vs 13 seeds 91-25 78.4% vs 5 seeds 46-37 vs 12 seeds 21-12 67-49 vs 5/12 seeds
5 seeds vs 12 seeds 92-44 67.6% vs 4 seeds 37-46 vs 13 seeds 11-3 48-49 vs 4/13 seeds
6 seeds vs 11 seeds 91-45 66.9% vs 3 seeds 37-44 vs 14 seeds 12-2 49-46 vs 3/14 seeds
The only one where the seed doesn't matter is between a 5/6 seed. But generally speaking, if you win the regular season and then flame out in the conference tourney, you go between a 1 to a 2, a 2 to a 3 type thing. And, those are huge differences.
Well first off, no one knows what seed they wouldv'e been before. But most predicted Marquette would get a 3 before and they got a 3. Louisville was getting a 1 regardless. It isn't as important ion the committee's eyes as you'd like to think.
The regular season influences your seed more than the conference tournament. Period.
Just looking at the S-Curve, if Michigan had won 1 more game in the Big Ten tourney, they would have almost for sure gone up from 13 on the S Curve and passed #12 Marquette. That's a 3 to a 4 seed which is a huge difference.
Also, look at Kansas. There was debate on them being a #1 seed at all entering tourney week, and they wound up with the #2 seed overall. Pretty big difference there. Would have gotten to avoid playing Louisville until the title game.
Also, I think the bracketing rules change will impact the tourney a lot. So, there might be much more of a difference between the 9th overall seed and the 12th overall seed.
aughnanure wrote:What if they had won one more game...in the regular season? It's about winning the most games, not where the games are played. The conference tourney is just an opportunity to win 3 more games. But 3 games do not a season make.
KU cares more about their 10 straight Big 12 championships than their conference tourney wins.
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