Conference Realignment: What Next?

[adoraz]

Football programs left behind via contraction will be competing for the G5 (G6?) Championship. Their program value would be cut in half overnight.

Yeah, at least half. Maybe a lot more. The Big 12 teams I believe earn $34 million in TV revenue while Big Ten earn $54 million. AAC teams I think earn around $10 million on their brand new contract (1/3-1/5 of P5 teams) and that has a lot of downsides too (ESPN+ costs). If you replace the bottom half of the AAC with the worst of the P5 I can't see it being worth anywhere near the P5 levels. The bottom dozen or so teams in the P5 aren't more valuable than the best 3-4 teams in the AAC, and apparently NO team in the AAC is worth the $34 million that the Big 12 pays out. If every team in the AAC is worth less than $34 million per year individually, then no way the average payout for conference of AAC and bottom-tier P5 teams would be more than ~$15 million. They'd essentially just be replacing a few schools like ECU/Tulane/Tulsa with the worst of the P5.

That's not even to mention travel/rivalry issues making this nothing more than a "plus" version of the American/G5.

[kayako]

AAC teams I think earn around $10 million on their brand new contract (1/3-1/5 of P5 teams) and that has a lot of downsides too (ESPN+ costs).

Agree with everything except afik it's far below $10M if the deal was $1B for 12 years and 12 teams (counting Navy and WSU as one team). Probably around $7M or maybe even lower with the production costs. If the BE is able to get any kind of meaningful raise from current $4.2M per school contract, in addition to much higher projected tourney credits distributed to each member, it'd make sense to join the BE and try independence (curious how uconn fares in the next ten years), or form a football-only conference with ten schools or so of the best remaining schools (hypothetically bottom few B12, top few aac, uconn, BYU, etc). But no, this is far fetched. I expect status quo.

[adoraz]

AAC teams I think earn around $10 million on their brand new contract (1/3-1/5 of P5 teams) and that has a lot of downsides too (ESPN+ costs).

Agree with everything except afik it's far below $10M if the deal was $1B for 12 years and 12 teams (counting Navy and WSU as one team). Probably around $7M or maybe even lower with the production costs. If the BE is able to get any kind of meaningful raise from current $4.2M per school contract, in addition to much higher projected tourney credits distributed to each member, it'd make sense to join the BE and try independence (curious how uconn fares in the next ten years), or form a football-only conference with ten schools or so of the best remaining schools (hypothetically bottom few B12, top few aac, uconn, BYU, etc). But no, this is far fetched. I expect status quo.

Interesting, yeah maybe I was thinking of the rumored TV deal (AKA fan's expectations) but $7 million sounds right.

I believe if the Big XII lost Texas and Oklahoma overnight, even with 8 other solid teams, their value per team would be cut by more than half immediately. They'd be stripped of their Power 5 label even if they added the AAC's top 2 teams.

Something else to think about is if a dozen of the P5 schools get left out, there's a strong likelihood some G5 teams would not even be accepted by the Big East or AAC. Let's say for instance that the Pac 12 merges with the Big 12 and Oregon St and Washington St are left out. The Big East obviously wouldn't add them because we haven't added the far more desirable Gonzaga. I'm not even sure we'd add them if they were located in the Midwest. The AAC I'm not so sure would add them, either, unless they could boot ECU and Tulane.

[Xudash]

Media agreement renewals are coming up.

I had no idea that CBS was giving up the SEC:

https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2019/12/cbs-dropping-sec-espn-abc-deal/

We are 5 years away from our original Fox media agreement maturity date. Can’t wait to get past this COVID-19 b/s to see if the BE and Fox simply reset and extend the clock on the agreement and to see what kind of $ bump it receives with the addition of UCONN.

Otherwise, we continue to pile up NCAAT Units with a denominator that is moving from 10 to 11. Unless the addition of a 12th member is accretive to the value of the media agreement, we should probably stay at 11. I get the argument about 12 getting us to an extra session at the BET and more money for that, but all that still has to translate to more revenue in such a way as to offset the denominator increasing from 11 to 12.

[whalerfan]

AAC teams I think earn around $10 million on their brand new contract (1/3-1/5 of P5 teams) and that has a lot of downsides too (ESPN+ costs).

Agree with everything except afik it's far below $10M if the deal was $1B for 12 years and 12 teams (counting Navy and WSU as one team). Probably around $7M or maybe even lower with the production costs. If the BE is able to get any kind of meaningful raise from current $4.2M per school contract, in addition to much higher projected tourney credits distributed to each member, it'd make sense to join the BE and try independence (curious how uconn fares in the next ten years), or form a football-only conference with ten schools or so of the best remaining schools (hypothetically bottom few B12, top few aac, uconn, BYU, etc). But no, this is far fetched. I expect status quo.

First, it's great to be back in the Big East and I sincerely hope the UConn independent thing works out for football. It's enjoyable going to games 20 minutes from home. As for the AAC contract it averages out to $7m/year but starts out much lower. Also, I know first hand that three institutions sent out RFP's for video production services (Tulsa, Memphis and Houston) so they are really behind the curve when it comes to providing content. It's going to cost these schools at least $1m to do what ESPN expects.

Lastly, I look forward to razzing my buddy who is a PC season ticket holder. It'll be nice going "toe to toe" with him in a conference matchup.

[kayako]

First, it's great to be back in the Big East and I sincerely hope the UConn independent thing works out for football. It's enjoyable going to games 20 minutes from home. As for the AAC contract it averages out to $7m/year but starts out much lower. Also, I know first hand that three institutions sent out RFP's for video production services (Tulsa, Memphis and Houston) so they are really behind the curve when it comes to providing content. It's going to cost these schools at least $1m to do what ESPN expects.

Lastly, I look forward to razzing my buddy who is a PC season ticket holder. It'll be nice going "toe to toe" with him in a conference matchup.

Welcome aboard, whalerfan! uconn and pc should become a red hot rivalry. And us Nova fans won't forget the 2014 loss anytime soon!

[gtmoBlue]

Media agreement renewals are coming up.

I had no idea that CBS was giving up the SEC:

https://www.sportsmediawatch.com/2019/12/cbs-dropping-sec-espn-abc-deal/

We are 5 years away from our original Fox media agreement maturity date. Can’t wait to get past this COVID-19 b/s to see if the BE and Fox simply reset and extend the clock on the agreement and to see what kind of $ bump it receives with the addition of UCONN.

Otherwise, we continue to pile up NCAAT Units with a denominator that is moving from 10 to 11. Unless the addition of a 12th member is accretive to the value of the media agreement, we should probably stay at 11. I get the argument about 12 getting us to an extra session at the BET and more money for that, but all that still has to translate to more revenue in such a way as to offset the denominator increasing from 11 to 12.

...at this point in time, such an issue pairs down a potential addition candidate to Duke, ND, and Gonzaga. So we stay at eleven as none of those 3 are coming aboard (any time soon).

[Bogg]

Eh, if there's "contraction" in the near future it won't be as a coordinated "merge-and-expell" sending a bunch of basketball schools loose. It'll be in the form of the Big 12 losing their headliners to the SEC/B1G or, less likely, the PAC losing schools to the Big 12. If it's the PAC losing schools then it doesn't likely open up any options for the Big East and they just backfill with MW schools and maybe BYU. If it's the Big 12 then the remaining schools probably backfill with AAC schools. If we assume Cincy and Temple remain blocked by X/Nova, I don't see any left behind AAC schools that would get a look from the Big East (maybe Memphis, if Penny turns it around?).

The only real scenario I'd see that would open up an appealing option would be if the Big 12 lost their headliners and the PAC followed up by offering a current Big 12 school as a football-only associate. In that longshot scenario then maybe a West Virginia or Iowa State shakes loose, and I could see jumping on either of them.

[ArmyVet]

After getting kicked out of their D3 league for dominating it, St Thomas MN will join the Summit League.

The 2011 and 2016 NCAA Division III men's basketball champions are joining the Division I ranks starting in the 2021-22 season. The University of St. Thomas announced Wednesday that it received NCAA approval for the jump, making it the first university in the modern history of the NCAA to go from non-scholarship Division III directly to Division I

https://www.cbssports.com/college-baske ... ivision-i/

[ArmyVet]

Notre Dame joining the ACC for this season. Irish will play 10 ACC conference games and will be eligible for the ACC title game.