Conference Realignment: What Next?

[Django]

When the P5 inevitably contracts, there will be plenty of better options: Pitt/Kansas/Cuse/Iowa State...

Not sure I would call it inevitable. They still need enough teams to fill out schedules, provide variety, and keep eyes coming in from across the country. And if it does, I'm guessing that there will be enough also-rans to fill out their own conference who still cares about football. I made a crack about Wake Forest earlier in the thread, and then did some reading up about it. Sounds like they still love their football program, though more for tailgating and the social aspect of it. A lot of programs are still like that, and likely wouldn't want to completely associate with the likes of Directional State University. Although, if the football majors do break off, a more academically focused but still football playing league (Say, Pitt, Cuse, Wake, Vandy as a core, maybe also Georgia Tech and add something like Cincinnati and Temple, and fill out as needed) would be a nice counterpoint to our basketball focused (and also quite good academically) league.

Yes I know Kentucky and Kansas football fans and can guarantee there are ZERO F5 schools that would do what UCONN did. ZERO. I’m sure there are plenty of UCONN fans upset about the move from the AAACK, which is a complete dogshit football conference.

[adoraz]

When the P5 inevitably contracts, there will be plenty of better options: Pitt/Kansas/Cuse/Iowa State...

Not sure I would call it inevitable. They still need enough teams to fill out schedules, provide variety, and keep eyes coming in from across the country. And if it does, I'm guessing that there will be enough also-rans to fill out their own conference who still cares about football. I made a crack about Wake Forest earlier in the thread, and then did some reading up about it. Sounds like they still love their football program, though more for tailgating and the social aspect of it. A lot of programs are still like that, and likely wouldn't want to completely associate with the likes of Directional State University. Although, if the football majors do break off, a more academically focused but still football playing league (Say, Pitt, Cuse, Wake, Vandy as a core, maybe also Georgia Tech and add something like Cincinnati and Temple, and fill out as needed) would be a nice counterpoint to our basketball focused (and also quite good academically) league.

Yes I know Kentucky and Kansas football fans and can guarantee there are ZERO F5 schools that would do what UCONN did. ZERO. I’m sure there are plenty of UCONN fans upset about the move from the AAACK, which is a complete dogshit football conference.

I'm pretty sure all D1 schools (besides maybe the Ivy league) would play football IF they were invited to the B1G or SEC and received that kind of money. The poster was just referencing teams that could get "booted/left out" from the rest of the P5. A school like Wake Forest is not worth P5 money, and if they were on the open market (aka choosing a new conference), then they'd possibly be choosing between the American and Big East. The question isn't what their fans want, it's whether playing football in the American would be financially feasible.

What we've seen the last 10 years is basketball focused non-football schools consolidating together and getting a solid payday relative to their worth. The 3 Big East newcomers are getting paid multiple times more than they were in 2012. The Catholic 7 is being paid significantly more now than we were in the "old" Big East, and of course we don't have extreme football expenses to worry about. We all know what happened with UConn.

Also, the big majority of UConn fans are happy about the move. Even football fans mostly think the move to independence is a good one, just look at their schedule.

[Hall2012]

If the P5 were to consolidate, I don't think the schools left out in the cold would drop or downgrade their football programs. It might be the financially sound decision, but I don't think their egos would let it happen. Those schools would join together to create their own conference - and they may well invite UConn or a couple top G5 programs to join them if they need the numbers, but they won't say screw football and join the Big East.

[adoraz]

If the P5 were to consolidate, I don't think the schools left out in the cold would drop or downgrade their football programs. It might be the financially sound decision, but I don't think their egos would let it happen. Those schools would join together to create their own conference - and they may well invite UConn or a couple top G5 programs to join them if they need the numbers, but they won't say screw football and join the Big East.

Very possible, but the problem is a conference made up exclusively of P5 bottom feeders would be similar to the American in worth. Not to mention they'd be spread out throughout the entire country and would face similar travel/rivalry issues that UConn did.

At best it'd be a slightly better version of the American with most of the same problems. They'd still be "left out" of the club.

Give that conference 5 years and a few I'm sure would inquire about the Big East.

[Xudash]

When the P5 inevitably contracts, there will be plenty of better options: Pitt/Kansas/Cuse/Iowa State...

Assuming Kansas and Iowa State aren’t available, and you could only take 1 of either Pitt or Cuse, which would it be?

Cuse for the history, NY presence, etc. ?

Pittsburgh for the Pittsburgh market, the size of the school, etc. ?

I can’t see at this point how those two get cut from the ACC ahead of Wake and BC, but it makes for an interesting summer discussion.

[DeltaV]

If the P5 were to consolidate, I don't think the schools left out in the cold would drop or downgrade their football programs. It might be the financially sound decision, but I don't think their egos would let it happen. Those schools would join together to create their own conference - and they may well invite UConn or a couple top G5 programs to join them if they need the numbers, but they won't say screw football and join the Big East.

Very possible, but the problem is a conference made up exclusively of P5 bottom feeders would be similar to the American in worth. Not to mention they'd be spread out throughout the entire country and would face similar travel/rivalry issues that UConn did.

At best it'd be a slightly better version of the American with most of the same problems. They'd still be "left out" of the club.

Give that conference 5 years and a few I'm sure would inquire about the Big East.

Meh, get enough of them and they'd be geographically close enough to keep travel costs reasonable, plus they are already bigger names than, say, East Carolina. Keep it smaller, true round robin.

Think of a conference of, say:

BC, Syracuse, UConn, Temple, Pitt, Cincinnati, Wake Forest, Rutgers, Vanderbilt, Ga Tech. 10 schools, none of which are CFB playoff contenders in their best year, good geographical separation yet hits most of the eastern time zone. You don't think that league would get more love than the AAC? Hell, throw in VCU as a basketball-only member to get your 20 game round robin there as well. Maybe Buffalo instead of one of the others (haven't they made some noise lately?)

[Husky_U]

Happy to get the offseason juices flowin...

I think most P5's that get the boot would have severe pride issues in terms of joining a lesser all-sports conference such as the AAC or MWC. I'd guess the select few who have BE-worthy basketball programs would be more than happy to join a power basketball equivalent conference like the BE and try to make football independence work.

Assuming Kansas and Iowa State aren’t available, and you could only take 1 of either Pitt or Cuse, which would it be?

Cuse for the history, NY presence, etc. ?

Pittsburgh for the Pittsburgh market, the size of the school, etc. ?

I can’t see at this point how those two get cut from the ACC ahead of Wake and BC, but it makes for an interesting summer discussion.

I think that all 4 would be in trouble in the event of a contraction, but Wake and BC may have more connections as they've been around longer in the league. For UCONN fans, we'd rather see Cuse 2+ times per year, but I think Pitt fits the BE better geographically as they pretty much connect the Northeast contingent to the Midwestern contingent.

I'd go:

1A. Pitt
1B. Cuse
3A. Wake
3B. BC

I'm pretty "meh" in terms of the Wake vs BC debate. Wake is more relevant in basketball, but BC fits the geography better. I guess somebody needs to be the new Depaul.

[adoraz]

If the P5 were to consolidate, I don't think the schools left out in the cold would drop or downgrade their football programs. It might be the financially sound decision, but I don't think their egos would let it happen. Those schools would join together to create their own conference - and they may well invite UConn or a couple top G5 programs to join them if they need the numbers, but they won't say screw football and join the Big East.

Very possible, but the problem is a conference made up exclusively of P5 bottom feeders would be similar to the American in worth. Not to mention they'd be spread out throughout the entire country and would face similar travel/rivalry issues that UConn did.

At best it'd be a slightly better version of the American with most of the same problems. They'd still be "left out" of the club.

Give that conference 5 years and a few I'm sure would inquire about the Big East.

Meh, get enough of them and they'd be geographically close enough to keep travel costs reasonable, plus they are already bigger names than, say, East Carolina. Keep it smaller, true round robin.

Think of a conference of, say:

BC, Syracuse, UConn, Temple, Pitt, Cincinnati, Wake Forest, Rutgers, Vanderbilt, Ga Tech. 10 schools, none of which are CFB playoff contenders in their best year, good geographical separation yet hits most of the eastern time zone. You don't think that league would get more love than the AAC? Hell, throw in VCU as a basketball-only member to get your 20 game round robin there as well. Maybe Buffalo instead of one of the others (haven't they made some noise lately?)

Well, there are a lot of hypotheticals here. If you took the top of the AAC plus UConn and combined them with the worst of the P5 (let's call this the American 2.0) then yes that'd be a better conference than the AAC. The problem still remains that it wouldn't be a Power conference, by definition, and certainly wouldn't get anywhere near P5 money. The BIG football brands are who bring in the most money for the conferences. The Big 12 is nothing without Texas and Oklahoma, for instance. When they tried adding an AAC member several years back they determined they'd lose value by adding one. That speaks volumes about how little even the best of the American is worth. Nobody wants to pay big money for a conference made up of random mid/low-tier teams without any heavy hitters. An American 2.0 would be paid more than the American, but not by much.

Also, the AAC was actually a better football conference than the ACC this past year and has had a few ranked teams every year for the past few years. UCF has also helped elevate them. All that has resulted in though is a mediocre contract and a loss of their top basketball school. A hypothetical football conference is always going to prioritize football over basketball. So, for instance, let's say if 10 P5 schools are booted. If the American 2.0 is 12 members then they'd likely take UCF/Houston/Cinci/Memphis/Temple over the likes of Kansas State/Wake Forest/Baylor/Oklahoma St/Oregon St/Washington St/etc. There might be a few basketball focused teams left out of both the American 2.0 and P5 that'd rather go to the Big East than join a random G5. I don't even know if UConn would want to join that conference unless the value was at least 2X the American contract, especially with their exit fee.

TLDR: contracts are mostly based on the top teams, not the mid/low-tier teams. The bottom of the P5 are filler who I'm sure the P5 would prefer to boot out if it were that simple. In this hypothetical scenario the goal would be to get rid of all the filler and there wouldn't be any top teams to headline this American 2.0.

[kayako]

Football programs left behind via contraction will be competing for the G5 (G6?) Championship. Their program value would be cut in half overnight.

[Hall2012]

If the P5 were to consolidate, I don't think the schools left out in the cold would drop or downgrade their football programs. It might be the financially sound decision, but I don't think their egos would let it happen. Those schools would join together to create their own conference - and they may well invite UConn or a couple top G5 programs to join them if they need the numbers, but they won't say screw football and join the Big East.

Very possible, but the problem is a conference made up exclusively of P5 bottom feeders would be similar to the American in worth. Not to mention they'd be spread out throughout the entire country and would face similar travel/rivalry issues that UConn did.

At best it'd be a slightly better version of the American with most of the same problems. They'd still be "left out" of the club.

Give that conference 5 years and a few I'm sure would inquire about the Big East.

I agree, but I don't think they would accept that fact without trying it. So yeah, maybe in another 5 years.