UConn 2020 Discussion - The Thread By AAC Fan Sam Elliott...

[billyjack]

Dayton hoops was going get a 1-seed or 2-seed coming out of the Atlantic-10, in an off-year for that conference. Makes no sense that they'd have any interest in moving to the American.

[GoldenWarrior11]

The Big East will remain at 11 for a few years, likely until 2024 or until the anticipated renewed TV deal will come close to expiring. Unfortunately for Dayton and SLU, they aren't going anywhere, and even if they (or one) were to be added by the AAC to replace UConn, the Big East just cemented the pecking order of conference superiority by taking UConn (the league's best basketball brand) away from them as a non-football member.

This is a myopic view.
First of all, UConn has had an NBE invite since 2013, and it was only after the Huskies imploded in FB and MBB that they finally reached out. The NBE isn’t getting the UConn of 13-14. It’s getting a UConn that has its first season above .500 in 4 years (and they still didn’t reach 20 wins).
Taking a team in a nosedive isn’t establishing a pecking order.
UConn just realized they aren’t an all-sports brand.
If you want to know the advantages of being an all-sports brand, and being on ESPN over Fox (besides the obvious difference in revenue), watch the first 5 minutes of this video.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=cy2mb4HaPho

http://youtube.com/watch?v=lROUR-eqqSU
God Bless the NBE but it just doesn’t have the money or this level of exposure. You can’t replicate this with an Olympic sports model. As Lovable Louie said in Requiem, you can’t compete with the stadiums. That’s where the pecking order begins and ends. UConn drew less than 10K (understandable since they haven’t won a league game since 2016). They simply needed to drop down.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=cy2mb4HaPho

So much to debate in one single post. Thank you.

Firstly, only AAC trolls refer to the Big East as the NBE. Not a single other group on the internet uses that acronym, so congratulations for accidentally outing yourself. The reason AAC fans continue to use this seldom used term is because of their internal desire to attempt to bridge the cemented gap between the two leagues; the Big East took the name, the tournament site, the basketball history, the basketball success, the basketball support and, now, the AAC's top basketball brand away in a span of seven years. This is not to gloat, but just a reality. Those that continue to refer to the Big East as the NBE are just fanboys living in denial refusing to acknowledge that the Big East is a power basketball conference that has rich history and basketball-first programs that will always compete nationally for top positioning in college basketball.

Secondly, whenever a school leaves a conference, it is never a good look perception-wise for the league and for the teams remaining in it. Either you have a case where a Texas A&M, a Nebraska, a Maryland, a Syracuse, etc. chooses more money, more exposure, or more prestige in a bigger/better league, or you have a case where you have a Temple that is kicked out for not being competitive and not putting in the necessary resources to put a successful product on the field. In the case of the latter, the conference looks bad because they extended an invitation to a school that failed to meet expectations, and for the sake of the collective, they needed to boot them. UConn chose to leave the American; it was not kicked out. UConn, likely, did have a standing invitation to the Big East (there are no confirmed reports as such). However, UConn remained in the AAC for seven years for one BIG reason: it was continuing to receive its regular payouts it had in the Big East thanks to the war chest funds; they took a gamble on the AAC (hoping it would become Big East Football) and busted. The new TV deal guaranteed they would be taking a pay cut (not to mention less exposure), and did not allow their athletic programs to continue to have their NE audience on SNY.

I cannot stop smiling at the plethora of die-hard AAC fans that convinced themselves that UConn Football signed their death notice by leaving the AAC. UConn has been able to arrange a long-term football schedule with NE P5 opponents and other P5 opponents that will actually get their fans interested again. Think about it - UConn was able to schedule more P5 football programs outside the AAC than it ever was while inside. That is not a good look at all for that narrative. Like many things that many AAC fans have been adamant about over the past 10 years (C7 will not be successful at basketball, AAC will be superior in basketball, AAC will get $10 million annually in new TV deal, AAC will be true Power conference, etc.), this is just as incorrect and inaccurate as the last declaration. UConn's basketball recruiting has already improved since leaving the AAC (and recruits were even saying that they were turned off by playing a Southern schedule), and UConn fans already began buying BET blocks this past Spring.

Thirdly, to your point about the Big East not being able to compete with the big boys, your tin-foil hat must be covering your eyes and ears. The Big East spends just as much as the other power conferences in men's basketball (see below). Georgetown, Marquette, Villanova, St. John's and UConn are all in the top-25 in spending annually, with the rest of the league in the top-50. In addition, the revenues are also within the range of the other power basketball conferences as well (see below). Unfortunately for the AAC, with regards to its spending and revenues in men's basketball, it is closer to the A10/MWC range with its figures than to the other power basketball leagues.

Average Conference Expenses:
ACC $10,165,847
Big 12 $9,273,003
Big East $9,056,762
SEC $8,917,637
Big Ten $8,765,333
Pac-12 $7,517,500

Average Conference Revenues:
ACC $15,733,337
Big Ten $15,142,875
SEC $12,715,619
Big 12 $12,048,056
Big East $10,367,209
Pac-12 $9,786,528

The average AAC program spends $6,117,781 and only makes $6,570,597 (way below these conferences). The Atlantic 10 has an average revenue of $5,155,829.

Finally, let's just hammer home this point about a clear separation. The AAC averaged this past year 6,900 fans per game (w/o UConn). That is on-par with the MWC. The Big East averages 10k per game. The Big East sells out its tournament, backs the greatest and most historical basketball arena in the world. The AAC, infamously, had dozens of fans at its games in Orlando a few years ago. Nearly half that league averages 5k fans or less on any given night. It's best program (Houston) can't even get 7k fans on average. These simply aren't basketball-first schools (which is fine), but it is what it is.

Meanwhile, present Big East programs have won a combined six national championships in the past 20 years. We have had another program make two national championship games in the past decade (Butler). Every single Big East programs has made the tournament in the past fifteen years, and ten of eleven have made the tournament in the past five years. The last time an AAC team won a national championship was over 50 years ago (Cincinnati). It's a sad fact that Memphis has had more total vacated seasons than the AAC, in its present form, has had second weekend teams.

[jfan]

Well said Warrior, you beat me to the punch with much better analytics than I could have provided. If it walks like a troll and quacks like a troll...

[Hall2012]

Warrior, where'd you get attendance figures for this season? Something I've been looking for...

[Jet915]

Warrior, where'd you get attendance figures for this season? Something I've been looking for...

Only know top 10

[Xudash]

Very well done Warrior.

Please allow me to amplify one point: smaller, mostly private basketball first BE schools versus the notion of bigger, all-sports AAC schools. Who really wins the day between the two?

Our timing was impeccable and lucky: we formed precisely at the same time that a new network was looking for content. And so here we are, $500 million later, awaiting a boost in that contract, resulting from our success and the addition of UCONN. We also are in attractive locations with major media markets. And our recruits like that they are the BMOC.

As the old saying goes, "it takes money to make money". We are basketball first with no bleeding football programs diluting our efforts. We don't carry teams of that size, coaching staffs of that size, marching bands and maintenance budgets on multiple thousands seat facilities, etc. We have the resources to run basketball programs at the highest level, against anyone. Our topline revenue performance per school is solid, considering the makeups of each of our respective athletic departments. Same holds true for our respective bottomline performance across the board (perhaps DePaul is weak due to its attendance issues). AAC members cannot make those statements.

But here is the amplified and obvious point: the AAC is a broken business model. It can't get there; it cannot ever compete with the P5 due to the disparity between their respective media agreements, and we're better positioned financially and with our mix of programs to sustain success in the BE. In order to try to keep up, as they otherwise receive the secondary crumbs in recruiting, they must fund themselves through student subsidies.

All you need do is to compare Xavier to UC. X's athletic department has never been healthier as it continues to improve its facilities and sponsored sports across the board. UC's basketball program is strained as a result of its football program's funding requirements. Actually, it is a fact that other areas of the institution have been financially strained as a result of the football program's repeated capital calls.

The AAC is losing and will lose the football war. The best it can hope for is to become a strong mid-major hoops conference. The AAC itself is making it hard for that to happen, given its unrealistic aspirations for football.

[Savannah Jay]

Oh Sammy, bless your heart.

While taking about your "stadium revenue," do you also wanna talk about expenses? Let's say you're a company...we'll call this company, "University of Cincinnati Football." You may be impressed that this company has $61,778,960 in revenue. Wow. That's a lot of revenue. A business person would follow that with, "tell me about expenses." Welp, said company has $64,775,303 in expenses, meaning an annual loss of $2,996,343. If this was the "real world" and this was an "ongoing" revenue/expense situation, you'd shutter the company, move to the Caribbean and tend bar, where you'd actually make more money.

Fact is, only one AAC school makes money on football and they (UCF) barely do. But you pretend like you're in the same league as schools that spend 2, 3, or 4 times as much on football and make money doing it. The AAC is not relevant in football. It's not really relevant in basketball though they could be if they quit pissing money away on football.

https://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances/

[thunderbird]

To add to GW11, Xudash, & Sav:

Sammy, you do realize that FS1 only launched in 2013, right? And ratings have increased every single year. From 2016-17 to 2017-18, it increased +27%. From 2017-18 to 2018-19, it increased +19%. This year, even though total figures aren't out yet, their highest watched game record was broken multiple times throughout the year. Hell, even St. John's-Xavier on FOX drew 2.3mil viewers, the network's most-watched college basketball game ever. You don't think they value the content that has built their new network? Our current contract is $4mil/team to AAC's new contract (includes football) at $7mil/team. And we just added UConn, a national basketball brand that brings eyeballs, on both the men's and women's sides. Also, every expert says the value of our media rights is currently way undervalued and we'll see a significant bump in $ when we renegotiate our contract. The fact AAC's new contract (w/ football) is only $3mil more than our current one is telling. I wonder how much that gap will close.

On top of that, AAC would've been a 2-bid league this year. Again. This isn't an anomaly. And your ceiling has only been 4 bids while it's been our cellar. And let's just say, for argument's sake, Xavier would've been first four out and we only had 6 bids this year. Do you know how much a single bid is worth? Last year, conferences were paid ~$1.7mil/bid. That's not including tournament wins. So just from bids alone, BE would've made $6.8mil more than AAC. And I'll repeat, that's without any tournament wins. And our tournament earnings have only been split between 10 teams compared to 12 (soon be 11/11), so we would've ended up with even more $/team. You should probably focus more on how your teams are performing on the court than what we're doing over here. Perhaps you should go over to the AAC board and try to convince your brethren to add Dayton because lord knows you need the help more than we do.

[Bogg]

Fact is, only one AAC school makes money on football and they (UCF) barely do.

I'm not sure they do. UCF's athletic department has a significant subsidy from the school that they include in their "revenue". Now, for UCF it's probably worth the expense, but it's still an expense.

[Savannah Jay]

Fact is, only one AAC school makes money on football and they (UCF) barely do.

I'm not sure they do. UCF's athletic department has a significant subsidy from the school that they include in their "revenue". Now, for UCF it's probably worth the expense, but it's still an expense.

Yeah...i missed that the amount of "total allocated" is almost half of their revenue. It's a HUGE school so I assume they have student fees that augment the actual football revenue. Thanks for the catch as it makes the AAC football, and our "University of Cincinnati Football" business (and its $29M in "allocated" revenue), picture even shittier.

Cheers.