BUBBLEWATCH 2020

[stever20]

The 5 seed has been beaten 50 times since 1985. The 4 seed has lost 29 times. So, way better to get the 4 over the 5. The 6 seed has lost 52 times and the 7 seed has lost 55 times (all since 1985). So, the 6 and 7 seed are a better draw than the 5, because there is roughly the same percentage of upsets, yet the 6 or 7 don't have to play the 1 until the semis, while the 5 would face the 1 seed one round sooner. The 3 seed has lost 21 times and the 2 seed only 14 times, so chances of an upset drop dramatically with each see higher than the 4 (which of course makes sense, because you first round opponent is more likely to be a champion of a lower conference or a P6 team which finished lower half of the conference).

for getting to the 2nd rd, you are right. Not much of a difference between 5 and 6-7...

However, for making the sweet 16, thre is almost as big of a difference between 6 and 7 as there is between 4 and 5.

rd 1 to 2nd rd
4 111
5 90
6 88
7 85

rd 2 to sweet 16
4 66
5 47
6 42
7 27

S16 to E8
4 21
5 9
6 14
7 10

So 4 seeds more than

[Husky_U]

Nothing wrong with a 7 seed, amiright Nova fans?!?!?!

[adoraz]

Nothing wrong with a 7 seed, amiright Nova fans?!?!?!

Funny how dramatically the 2 conferences have reversed (and then some) since 2014. The AAC had their best year and the Big East their worst. The AAC was never able to capitalize on that Title and 4/5 ranked teams. I still remember the Nova vs UConn game and being pissed off, questioning if the Big East would turn into the A10.

[kayako]

The order of your listing not-so-subtly suggests Creighton should be a No. 1 seed, Villanova and Seton Hall should be No. 2 seeds, with San Diego State and Dayton being the two No. 3 seeds to which you refer.

I respectfully suggest that in the process of compiling your listing, you failed to research the Dayton Flyers properly, so please allow me to add to your apparently limited knowledge:

In any event, your post warranted an informed reply, but I do not intend to debate it with you or other posters, as you are entitled to your opinion.

The list wasn't ordered by anything, really. You're being defensive. I'd have Gonzaga ahead of Duke if that was the case, as traveling west for most of our teams to play in their backyard would seriously suck. 1 seeds should be Kansas, Baylor, Gonzaga, Dayton/SDSU for now. But imo Nova with a BET championship can probably make a good case as the #1 seed in the East region, if anyone not Kansas fails to win their tourney.

[kayako]

I still remember the Nova vs UConn game and being pissed off, questioning if the Big East would turn into the A10.

It wasn't as bad as the NC State loss the following year. The worst ever was probably the phantom travel game loss to UNC and then having to see those mfkers go on to win the championship.

[stever20]

so looking at Bracketville seed list going into this week-
7 Villanova 3rd 2
8 Creighton 4th 2
12 Seton Hall 4th 3
20 Butler 4th 5
28 Providence 4th 7
38 Marquette- 3rd team with bye 2nd 10
42 Xavier- 4th team in 2nd 11

Providence may need to beat Creighton to get up out of the pit of misery. They were 1 spot ahead of Saint Mary's, and they just got a big win over BYU, so quite possibly right now top 8 seed for Providence.

Marquette and Xavier may be out of the pit of misery, but they very possibly will be going to Dayton(I think it's a pretty safe bet a Marquette loss in QF and they head to Dayton, and if Xavier beats DePaul but loses to Villanova, they almost definitely best case are going to Dayton.

[kayako]

If Xavier gets by DePaul, and if we are to assume that bracketville's order is 100% correct (it probably isn't and Xavier may be currently lower than projected, but that's another topic), far too many things would have to go wrong to fall out of the bracket completely. Too many teams just ahead and below them play each other, A10 and AAC would need to steal bids, and random middling P5 teams would have to go on serious runs in their tourney for this to happen. Also, some of these brackets including bracketville's have Cincinnati taking up the AAC automatic spot just outside the last 4 IN group.

Aaaaack's become the star of this week's bubble talk, not really due to high quality play, but because they occupy like half of the bubble real estate. I'm sure Stever's dying to talk AAC. My best guess at AAC's tourney fate:

2 bids - 70% (winner of cinci/wichita & houston or another bid thief & houston)
1 bid - 20% (uconn's blaze of glory before losing to Houston)
3 bids - 9% (winner of cinci/wichita, houston, and a team from houston's half wins the AAC tourney)
4 bids - 1% (improbable but winner of cinci/wichita, houston, aac winner SMU, and Memphis somehow gets a bid with wins over ECU and Tulsa because rest of the bubble completely collapsed)

[stever20]

If Xavier gets by DePaul, and if we are to assume that bracketville's order is 100% correct (it probably isn't and Xavier may be currently lower than projected, but that's another topic), far too many things would have to go wrong to fall out of the bracket completely. Too many teams just ahead and below them play each other, A10 and AAC would need to steal bids, and random middling P5 teams would have to go on serious runs in their tourney for this to happen. Also, some of these brackets including bracketville's have Cincinnati taking up the AAC automatic spot just outside the last 4 IN group.

Aaaaack's become the star of this week's bubble talk, not really due to high quality play, but because they occupy like half of the bubble real estate. I'm sure Stever's dying to talk AAC. My best guess at AAC's tourney fate:

2 bids - 70% (winner of cinci/wichita & houston or another bid thief & houston)
1 bid - 20% (uconn's blaze of glory before losing to Houston)
3 bids - 9% (winner of cinci/wichita, houston, and a team from houston's half wins the AAC tourney)
4 bids - 1% (improbable but winner of cinci/wichita, houston, aac winner SMU, and Memphis somehow gets a bid with wins over ECU and Tulsa because rest of the bubble completely collapsed)

I think Xavier is probably pretty safe getting in the tourney, but to get out of Dayton First Four, they need to win on Thursday night. Same with Marquette. I don't think they lose and aren't first four.

I don't think I'd give UConn a 20% chance of beating both Wichita and Cincy in the 2nd and 3rd days of the tourney.

I think 3 bids could easily also be- Cincy, Houston, and Wichita- especially if Cincy beats Wichita(who beats UConn). Those bubble vs bubble games- prime example being Texas vs Texas Tech- one has to lose- with no further wins. Think Cincy(wiht win over Wichita) and Wichita(with win over Uconn) would pass the loser of that game(especially if it's Texas). UCLA/Stanford another great example.