BUBBLEWATCH 2020

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

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Bubble Watch: Breaking Down Every Team in At-large Contention - Rob Dauster, NBC Sports - January 31, 2020

It’s that time of the year again, which means that we are diving head first into our annual NCAA tournament bubble tracker . . . blah, blah, blah . . . Every team that is a No. 9-seed or above is “off the bubble” . . . So with all that in mind, let’s get into the full NCAA tournament bubble watch:

BIG EAST BUBBLE WATCH

Top 9 Seeds: Seton Hall (NBC: 2), Villanova (NBC: 2), Butler (NBC: 4), Creighton (NBC: 5), Marquette (NBC: 7)

DEPAUL (NET: 59, NBC: First four out): DePaul fell to 1-7 in the Big East with a loss at Seton Hall (10) on Wednesday. They do have three Quad 1 wins, including two Big Ten road wins — Iowa (21) and Minnesota (45) — as well as Butler at home, but a loss to Buffalo (148) at home puts them in a really tough spot. It doesn’t help matters that three of their next four are on the road, too. I think that the next two weeks will determine where they play in March.

ST. JOHN’S (NET: 73, NBC: First four out): The Johnnies lost for the seventh time in their last nine games when Villanova (13) waltzed into MSG and beat the Red Storm by 20. That’s not ideal. St. John’s is still in the mix because of wins over West Virginia (7) and Arizona (10), the latter of which came on a neutral court. But with road games left against Villanova, Seton Hall (12) and Butler (9), Mike Anderson’s club has backed themselves into a corner.

XAVIER (NET: 63, NBC: Next four out): The Musketeers blew a huge chance Wednesday. With Markus Howard out for the final 12 minutes and overtime, Xavier held an eight point lead with eight minutes left and a five point lead with 90 seconds left and still lost in double overtime to Marquette (22). They’re now just 1-7 against Quad 1 opponents without a single win over a top 50 team. The good news for Xavier is that they only have one sub-40 loss to their name, and that was at Wake Forest (113), a Quad 2 loss. The bad news is they have not beaten a top 50 team and their only Quad 1 win came at TCU (65). They’re at Seton Hall (14) on Saturday, host Villanova (13) next month and have two more games against Butler (8). They probably need to win two of those games.

GEORGETOWN (NET: 49, NBC: Next four out): The Hoyas lost their third straight game on Tuesday night and have now dropped six of their last eight. Making things worse is that they were up by 13 points on Butler (8) late in the first half. This was their best chance to land an elite win this season. They still get Villanova (13) and Seton Hall (14) at home, but the biggest issue with Georgetown’s tournament chances is that they are trending in the wrong direction with just seven scholarship players.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

Saturday 2/1/2020

Creighton @ #8 Villanova • Line: Villanova -6

Xavier @ #10 Seton Hall • Line: Seton Hall -8

Providence @ #16 Butler • Line: Butler -7.5

Big East Live Scoreboard – ESPN

Creighton 76, #8 Villanova 61

Xavier 74, #10 Seton Hall 62

Providence 65, #16 Butler 61

Today's road warriors took no prisoners. NBC College Basketball homepage

Bubble Banter: Xavier, Wisconsin land massive wins for their bubble standing - Rob Dauster, NBC Sports - February 1, 2020 - 3:34 PM EST

WINNERS

XAVIER (NET: 63, NBC: Next four out): It’s impossible to overstate just how important Saturday’s win at Seton Hall (14) is for Xavier. The Musketeers entered the day with a 13-8 record, but just a 1-7 mark against Quad 1 opponents. Their only Quad 1 win enter the day came at TCU (65). Their only top 50 win entering the day came against Georgetown (49) at home. They didn’t have anything close to resembling a marquee win, and now they do. With two games left against Butler (8) and a visit from Villanova (13) left on their schedule, the Musketeers still have a couple of more chances, too. They’ll probably want to win at least one of those, and they certainly aren’t a lock just yet, but this is precisely the kind of win that chances the calculus for their tournament chances.

Congratulations to the Musketeers!

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

ESPN College Basketball homepage

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: First look at the wildest bubble in years - John Gasaway, ESPN Insider – February 2, 2020

Editor's note: The NCAA tournament Bubble Watch has been updated through Saturday's games.

Is this the wildest and most volatile bubble ever? Possibly! We say that's the case every season, but this time we really mean it.

The Big East Lock: Seton Hall

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

Bubble Watch: Updated look at the wildest bubble in years - John Gasaway, ESPN Insider – Thursday February 6, 2020

Editor's note: The NCAA tournament Bubble Watch has been updated through Wednesday's games.

Big East

Lock: Seton Hall

Should be in:

Butler Bulldogs

Butler is zeroing in on its best seed of the LaVall Jordan era, with mock brackets showing the Bulldogs somewhere in the neighborhood of the No. 5 line. Kamar Baldwin's production inside the arc and particularly at the line has powered an offense that has been good enough when paired with an interior D that, in its quiet way, has been just as strong as Seton Hall's in Big East play. Speaking of production at the line, BU's "free throw defense" has been seriously lacking, as conference opponents have shot 79% on their freebies. Make some noise and wave some cut-outs, Hinkle.

Villanova Wildcats

The game the Wildcats lost at Butler represented this offense's best outing of the Big East season so far, with 1.25 points per possession. (The Bulldogs scored 1.29 in a 79-76 win.) Is it time to worry about this projected No. 4 seed's defense? That will be in the eye of the beholder, but for the record, the Nova offense and defense have been equally good or bad in conference play relative to the Big East average. An equally valid question after the Butler loss might be whether it's time for opponents to worry that this offense has awakened at last.

Creighton Bluejays

If you're going to lose at Providence by 17, having a gaudy NET ranking helps minimize the damage to your profile. Sure enough, Creighton entered that loss to the Friars at No. 14 in the NET, thanks in no small part to the preceding 15-point road win at Villanova. The loss to PC was an abject warning to Greg McDermott's men to never again shoot 6-of-27 on their 3s. Assuming the Bluejays get that message, you're still looking at six Quad 1 wins and a projected No. 5 seed.

Marquette Golden Eagles

Marquette would appear to be headed for its second consecutive seed in the Nos. 5 to 8 vicinity. Markus Howard is Markus Howard, of course, and Steve Wojciechowski's group does a commendable job limiting opponents to one shot on offense. Big double-digit victories at home against Villanova and on a neutral floor against USC have the potential to look better and better in the event that those opponents win some games in February and beyond. Note additionally that Marquette has joined Villanova in the Big East's highly-perimeter-oriented club. Sacar Anim and Brendan Bailey have proven themselves to be valuable supporting shooters alongside Howard.

Work to do:

Xavier Musketeers

Last weekend's win at Seton Hall strengthened the Musketeers' tournament profile markedly while recasting the Big East title race in new and more competitive terms. The victory in Newark, New Jersey, marked the second Quad 1 win of the season for Travis Steele's group, and beating the No. 10 team in the nation on its home floor definitely qualified for the (unfailingly overused) "signature win" label. The game has the feel of being the first piece of evidence used in Xavier's favor in the committee room. Indeed, the victory elevated the Musketeer's NET ranking from the 60s to the 40s. That's not bad for a group that entered last weekend at 2-6 in the Big East. Now, after winning at DePaul, Xavier is 4-6 and moving up the ranks.

Georgetown Hoyas

Masters of suspense that they are, the Hoyas lurk on the edge of the chasm separating "36th at-large bid" from "wait until next year." On paper, Georgetown's quality wins are a victory at home over Creighton and road Ws at SMU and St. John's. Those games fit the letter of the Quad 1 law, but will they sway any committee votes in a close comparison with a competing bubble aspirant? Patrick Ewing's men would be smart to seize the day in one or, better still, both of those upcoming home games against Seton Hall and Villanova.

[stever20]

So going to use Bracketville's seed list.... He posted these seeds on Monday. Results this week-
w 33 Houston(auto) beat USF
34 USC tonight vs Washington
w 35 Oklahoma beat Iowa St
l 36 Purdue lost Penn St
l 37 Xavier lost Butler
l 38 Rhode Island lost Dayton
39 Indiana tonight vs Iowa
w 40 Florida beat Texas A&M
l 41 Arkansas lost Tennessee
w 42 Virginia beat Notre Dame
43 Arizona St tonight vs Stanford
w 44 E Tenn St(auto) beat The Citadel
45 Wichita St tonight vs UCF
46 Stanford tonight vs Arizona St
l 47 Miss St lost Mississippi
w 48 No Iowa(auto) beat Illinois St

l 69 VCU lost George Mason
70 Memphis tonight Cincy
71 Cincy tonight Memphis
w 72 NC State beat Syracuse
73 Georgetown dnp
w 74 Richmond beat La Salle
w 75 Utah St beat Colorado St
l 76 Alabama lost Auburn
77 Minnesota dnp
l 78 Texas lost Baylor
l 79 Syracuse lost NC State
80 Utah tonight vs Oregon St
l 81 Notre Dame lost Virginia
l 82 Providence lost St John's
l 83 Pittsburgh lost Clemson
84 Saint Louis dnp

He'll update his seed list tomorrow morning based on all the new results.

A LOT of lost opportunities in that 36-41 range.

Some huge bubble games tonight

[ArmyVet]

Big East

Lock: Seton Hall

Should be in

Butler Bulldogs

Their recent 3-5 stretch notwithstanding, the Bulldogs are rapidly approaching lock status. LaVall Jordan's team is 19-6 with a NET ranking in the top 15 and with wins over Creighton, Villanova and Marquette to its credit. The mock brackets see Butler as a No. 4 seed, and Butler's interior defense is excellent. While the Bulldogs will want to address the turnover imbalance they've displayed during Big East play in order to make a deep tournament run, the material point for Bubble Watch purposes is that Butler is on track for one of the best seeds in program history.

Villanova Wildcats

The losing streak is over, and Villanova held off a late Marquette rally to win by one point at home. Like seemingly half the Big East, the Wildcats are showing up around the Nos. 4 and 5 lines in terms of projected seed, and Jay Wright's team has already split two-game sets with Butler, Creighton and the aforementioned Golden Eagles. That leaves Seton Hall. Villanova lost at home to the Pirates by six earlier this month. A win in the return match in New Jersey (where, surprisingly, Kevin Willard's team has already lost to Xavier and the Bluejays) could nudge the Wildcats up a seed line.

Creighton Bluejays

Before their five-point win at Seton Hall, the Bluejays seemed to be headed for a No. 5 seed. Now? A top-four seed could be within reach if Creighton finishes strong, but, as the Pirates themselves can attest, long win streaks are difficult to sustain in the Big East. The Bluejays will seek to buck that trend in upcoming games at home against DePaul and on the road at Marquette. Say this for Creighton: An offense this balanced is hard to guard. Marcus Zegarowski, Ty-Shon Alexander, Damien Jefferson and Denzel Mahoney each scored 18 in the victory in Newark, New Jersey.

Marquette Golden Eagles

Markus Howard is now the Big East's all-time leading scorer, and it appears that Marquette will receive its second consecutive seed somewhere in the Nos. 5 to 8 area. These are good times for the Golden Eagles' basketball program. One facet of MU's performance that could prove problematic, however, is the microscopic turnover rate being recorded by Big East opponents. Opposing offenses have given the ball away on just 12.8% of their possessions in conference play. With a turnover rate that low, opponents can and do score even when they're not hitting shots.

Work to do

Xavier Musketeers

Xavier's February winning streak came to an end in a 66-61 loss at Butler, and now the Musketeers are 5-7 in the Big East with a NET ranking in the low 40s. On paper, that's likely good enough to get the job done when your wins include a victory over Seton Hall in Newark. Sure enough, Travis Steele's men were more or less universally regarded as being in the hypothetical field, either as a No. 10 or 11 seed, before the Butler loss. In short, there appears to be a clear path for Xavier to secure a bid. Note for example that the upcoming game against St. John's at Madison Square Garden could potentially qualify as Quad 1, depending on how Mike Anderson's team fares between now and Selection Sunday.

Georgetown Hoyas

The Hoyas are still lurking in the bubble picture (albeit outside the projected field), but the schedule is running out of patience with this bunch. Patrick Ewing's men have hosted Marquette, Butler and Seton Hall over the past month and come away with an 0-3 record. Now Georgetown is 4-7 in conference play and trying to make a push with what on paper is the worst defense in the Big East. The next game is at Butler, and a win there would breathe life into a profile that's in danger of becoming an afterthought. Perhaps Jahvon Blair, he of the 30 points against Providence, can help provide the necessary resuscitation.

[DeadHeadHoya]

if the Hoyas finish 4-3 i think they are in for sure. winning at msg would help obliviously

[stever20]

if the Hoyas finish 4-3 i think they are in for sure. winning at msg would help obliviously

If they do that they would have to win @ 66 DePaul, 62 Providence, 43 Xavier, and then 1 of @ 12 Butler, @ 20 Marquette, @ 19 Creighton, or 21 Villanova.

Go 3-4 they are 7-11 17-14. They might need to beat not only St John's, but also the 1 seed in that case to make the tourney.

Assuming they go 3-4 with the 3 easier wins- they would have right now 5 Q1 wins. BUT 4 of those wins would be
@ 66 DePaul
@ 67 St John's
@ 71 Oklahoma St
@ 73 SMU

Those 4 would be real precarious.

[kayako]

I understand the need to be cautious with assigning lock status, but Creighton and Nova are locks, and Butler close. Marquette's 1 or 2 wins away.

[Jet915]

I understand the need to be cautious with assigning lock status, but Creighton and Nova are locks, and Butler close. Marquette's 1 or 2 wins away.

I always thought Creighton needs 9 Big East wins to be in so 1 more....