(3) Wednesday Big East Games 2/5/20

[stever20]

PC needs to go 12-6 in conference at a minimum, meaning we still have to go 6-2 the rest of the way. This has an extremely low probability of happening, cuz we'd have to play .750 ball the rest of the way. I just want my Friars to keep improving and continue to play hard, but i don't expect an NCAA bid at all.

I have no idea how or why our NET can be as low as 55... maybe cuz the Long Beach loss was only by 1 point?

Last night, Pipkins didn't play in the 2nd half, and Alpha seemed to play mad (in a good way), grabbing a ton of key boards. I have no idea why the Jays shot so poorly. Also, we got a lot of 50/50 calls from the refs.

I completely disagree with you....

PC beats St John's, Georgetown, Xavier, DePaul, and then 1 of Seton Hall/Marquette/Villanova- they are 18-13. With 6 Q1 wins guaranteed- and a 7th in St John's would be possible.... That's an EASY not only get in, but frankly probably in as a 10 seed.

As to why the NET so low-
only 4-7 away from home
13-10 overall record 10.6-9.6 adjusted record
6 losses by 8 or more points
6 of the 13 wins by 5 points or less- with 2 Q3 wins being like that.

[Omaha1]

We don’t know why the Jays shot so poorly either. If I had to guess, the guards are tired. Mac doesn’t give Ballock, Zegs, or TSA much rest and we’ve been without Shereef Mitchell for several games.

Credit to PC. Jays had a second half lead until everything PC shot from distance started going in. Bad recipe for CU.

[billyjack]

PC needs to go 12-6 in conference at a minimum, meaning we still have to go 6-2 the rest of the way. This has an extremely low probability of happening, cuz we'd have to play .750 ball the rest of the way. I just want my Friars to keep improving and continue to play hard, but i don't expect an NCAA bid at all.

I have no idea how or why our NET can be as low as 55... maybe cuz the Long Beach loss was only by 1 point?

Last night, Pipkins didn't play in the 2nd half, and Alpha seemed to play mad (in a good way), grabbing a ton of key boards. I have no idea why the Jays shot so poorly. Also, we got a lot of 50/50 calls from the refs.

I completely disagree with you....

PC beats St John's, Georgetown, Xavier, DePaul, and then 1 of Seton Hall/Marquette/Villanova- they are 18-13. With 6 Q1 wins guaranteed- and a 7th in St John's would be possible.... That's an EASY not only get in, but frankly probably in as a 10 seed.

As to why the NET so low-
only 4-7 away from home
13-10 overall record 10.6-9.6 adjusted record
6 losses by 8 or more points
6 of the 13 wins by 5 points or less- with 2 Q3 wins being like that.

Right, i think PC's NET is way better than i would've expected. By "low" i meant "better". i figured our NET at best would be at like 100.

Our losses were bad. Charleston is 8-3 in the Colonial, Penn is decent, but Long Beach has a NET of 305, and Northwestern is bad. URI (road) and Florida (neutral) are fine.

So you think we need 5 more wins and we're a lock? That's still a tough task for us.

[stever20]

Right, i think PC's NET is way better than i would've expected. By "low" i meant "better". i figured our NET at best would be at like 100.

Our losses were bad. Charleston is 8-3 in the Colonial, Penn is decent, but Long Beach has a NET of 305, and Northwestern is bad. URI (road) and Florida (neutral) are fine.

So you think we need 5 more wins and we're a lock? That's still a tough task for us.

LOL, this might be the funniest conversation we've ever had on these boards.... Normally we're on the other side... Kind of like a debate club I guess

Why is Providence so high?
#13 overall SOS right now #105 OOC SOS
+0.7 MOV (10 pt capped)
13-10 overall record (10.6-9.6)

Yeah, I totally think 5 wins and Providence is in....
right now have 4 Q1 wins. @ 11 Butler, @ 23 Marquette, 22 Creighton, and @ 67 DePaul(only one that has a real shot to be moved down).

Worst case the 5 wins are 45 Xavier, 67 DePaul, @ 45 Xavier, @ 52 Georgetown, and @ 73 St John's. KP gives PC a 2.0% chance of sweeping those 5. But then you have to figure lose 1 of those 5, but beat Seton Hall 41%, Marquette 49%, or Villanova 24%. Very possible win one of those 3....

So the absolute worst case Providence is 18-13 with 5 Q1 wins. This is assuming DePaul and St John's fall out of the top 75.

[billyjack]

Right, i think PC's NET is way better than i would've expected. By "low" i meant "better". i figured our NET at best would be at like 100.

Our losses were bad. Charleston is 8-3 in the Colonial, Penn is decent, but Long Beach has a NET of 305, and Northwestern is bad. URI (road) and Florida (neutral) are fine.

So you think we need 5 more wins and we're a lock? That's still a tough task for us.

LOL, this might be the funniest conversation we've ever had on these boards.... Normally we're on the other side... Kind of like a debate club I guess

Why is Providence so high?
#13 overall SOS right now #105 OOC SOS
+0.7 MOV (10 pt capped)
13-10 overall record (10.6-9.6)

Yeah, I totally think 5 wins and Providence is in....
right now have 4 Q1 wins. @ 11 Butler, @ 23 Marquette, 22 Creighton, and @ 67 DePaul(only one that has a real shot to be moved down).

Worst case the 5 wins are 45 Xavier, 67 DePaul, @ 45 Xavier, @ 52 Georgetown, and @ 73 St John's. KP gives PC a 2.0% chance of sweeping those 5. But then you have to figure lose 1 of those 5, but beat Seton Hall 41%, Marquette 49%, or Villanova 24%. Very possible win one of those 3....

So the absolute worst case Providence is 18-13 with 5 Q1 wins. This is assuming DePaul and St John's fall out of the top 75.

Ok, i hope you're right about PC's chances. Our schedule is tough so i don't think we'll get the wins you're mentioning.

I'm always a huge Big East optimist, but i've always been realistic. Things that many of us here predicted in 2013 and onward, which may have seemed crazy at the time, have ended up being correct.