(4) Saturday Big East Early Afternoon Games 2/1/20

[XUFan09]

really only 4 chances left now. Seton Hall, Nova, and Butler twice.... And that's assuming they win all the other games- with 4 of the 6 games being on the road.

I saw this post mid-game, so didn't get a chance to respond to the bad faith argument. Stever knows that road games against top 75 teams are Quad 1 games, and if it was an AAC team, he definitely would be mentioning that. Since it's a Big East team, he conveniently forgets it. Georgetown and DePaul are still solidly top 75 teams, and Providence and St. John's are both currently in the top 75 (meaning that we will likely have at least one there at the end of the season). So Xavier doesn't just have the four games Stever listed; they have between six and eight total Quad 1 games left.

Watch, he will come back with something like, "By 'chances,' I meant ranked opponents," having used vague language so he can move the goalposts how he wishes. Or maybe he will claim that he was talking about marquee wins, a highly subjective metric. Doesn't matter; Quad 1 wins are the driver of tournament resumes and he knows it.

The NCAA last year split up Quad 1 into 2 different tiers. 1 is top 15 home, top 25 neutral and top 40 away.

I really don't think X could have gotten in with only the road wins vs St John's, Providence, Georgetown, and DePaul.... At all. What do you always hear about in tourney selection time? Wins vs teams in the tourney. Well today is the 1st one that you can say for sure is in the tourney for Xavier. They desperately needed this win.

Pulling wins out of 6 to 8 chances is far more plausible than pulling wins out of 4 games. Also, that scenario would have put X at 8-10 with 5 Quad 1 road wins. With a conference tournament win, a tournament bid isn't out of the question.

The splitting of Quad 1 comes up far more with seeding discussions than selection discussions. Wins against tournament teams are highly relevant for teams looking to get good seeds, but these wins will be limited for the last few teams because, well, they're rated more lowly than most tournament teams for a reason. It's just not that useful of a discussion for Bubble teams. For the Bubble teams where it's relevant (i.e. multiple wins against tournament teams), they generally have serious flaws elsewhere, like multiple bad losses. When discussing Bubble teams, you far more often hear about how they did versus other teams on or near the Bubble. That's essentially the back half of Quad 1 games.

[stever20]

Pulling wins out of 6 to 8 chances is far more plausible than pulling wins out of 4 games. Also, that scenario would have put X at 8-10 with 5 Quad 1 road wins. With a conference tournament win, a tournament bid isn't out of the question.

The splitting of Quad 1 comes up far more with seeding discussions than selection discussions. Wins against tournament teams are highly relevant for teams looking to get good seeds, but these wins will be limited for the last few teams because, well, they're rated more lowly than most tournament teams for a reason. It's just not that useful of a discussion for Bubble teams. For the Bubble teams where it's relevant (i.e. multiple wins against tournament teams), they generally have serious flaws elsewhere, like multiple bad losses. When discussing Bubble teams, you far more often hear about how they did versus other teams on or near the Bubble. That's essentially the back half of Quad 1 games.

You are assuming the Big East remains with all the teams in the top 75. Just today St John's fell out. TCU also is no lock, they are #67 right now. They would have had road wins vs TCU(67), DePaul(59), St John's(76), Georgetown(48), and Providence(65). Yes, best case they would have had 5 Q1 wins. But it's also possible they'd have had only 2-3 depending on how TCU, DePaul, and St John's shook out.

X will be really interesting. Still have 5 road games, with 4 being the back half of the league. It's right there for the taking for them... Tomorrow and Saturday are just huge games.

[XUFan09]

Pulling wins out of 6 to 8 chances is far more plausible than pulling wins out of 4 games. Also, that scenario would have put X at 8-10 with 5 Quad 1 road wins. With a conference tournament win, a tournament bid isn't out of the question.

The splitting of Quad 1 comes up far more with seeding discussions than selection discussions. Wins against tournament teams are highly relevant for teams looking to get good seeds, but these wins will be limited for the last few teams because, well, they're rated more lowly than most tournament teams for a reason. It's just not that useful of a discussion for Bubble teams. For the Bubble teams where it's relevant (i.e. multiple wins against tournament teams), they generally have serious flaws elsewhere, like multiple bad losses. When discussing Bubble teams, you far more often hear about how they did versus other teams on or near the Bubble. That's essentially the back half of Quad 1 games.

You are assuming the Big East remains with all the teams in the top 75. Just today St John's fell out. TCU also is no lock, they are #67 right now. They would have had road wins vs TCU(67), DePaul(59), St John's(76), Georgetown(48), and Providence(65). Yes, best case they would have had 5 Q1 wins. But it's also possible they'd have had only 2-3 depending on how TCU, DePaul, and St John's shook out.

X will be really interesting. Still have 5 road games, with 4 being the back half of the league. It's right there for the taking for them... Tomorrow and Saturday are just huge games.

Specific to the Big East chances, I have talked about 6 to 8 chances explicitly because they might not all stay in the top 75. For the 5 Quad 1 wins I referenced, I did forget to give a reasonable range, but you suggesting 2 or 3 is just silly and yet another case of "Stever is using the most extreme scenario for his argument." If you have five teams currently in the top 76, some solidly in, you basically aren't going to end up with just 2 in the top 75. Rather, only 2 in the top 75 is so statistically unlikely that it isn't worth mentioning in a reasonable range. Then, 3 in the top 75 is less likely than all 5. Having 4 or 5 in the top 75 is the most likely outcome, and remember the general point: That many Quad 1 road wins with an 8-10 conference record against really tough competition is enough to potentially make the tournament after winning a conference tournament game.

[stever20]

Pulling wins out of 6 to 8 chances is far more plausible than pulling wins out of 4 games. Also, that scenario would have put X at 8-10 with 5 Quad 1 road wins. With a conference tournament win, a tournament bid isn't out of the question.

The splitting of Quad 1 comes up far more with seeding discussions than selection discussions. Wins against tournament teams are highly relevant for teams looking to get good seeds, but these wins will be limited for the last few teams because, well, they're rated more lowly than most tournament teams for a reason. It's just not that useful of a discussion for Bubble teams. For the Bubble teams where it's relevant (i.e. multiple wins against tournament teams), they generally have serious flaws elsewhere, like multiple bad losses. When discussing Bubble teams, you far more often hear about how they did versus other teams on or near the Bubble. That's essentially the back half of Quad 1 games.

You are assuming the Big East remains with all the teams in the top 75. Just today St John's fell out. TCU also is no lock, they are #67 right now. They would have had road wins vs TCU(67), DePaul(59), St John's(76), Georgetown(48), and Providence(65). Yes, best case they would have had 5 Q1 wins. But it's also possible they'd have had only 2-3 depending on how TCU, DePaul, and St John's shook out.

X will be really interesting. Still have 5 road games, with 4 being the back half of the league. It's right there for the taking for them... Tomorrow and Saturday are just huge games.

Specific to the Big East chances, I have talked about 6 to 8 chances explicitly because they might not all stay in the top 75. For the 5 Quad 1 wins I referenced, I did forget to give a reasonable range, but you suggesting 2 or 3 is just silly and yet another case of "Stever is using the most extreme scenario for his argument." If you have five teams currently in the top 76, some solidly in, you basically aren't going to end up with just 2 in the top 75. Rather, only 2 in the top 75 is so statistically unlikely that it isn't worth mentioning in a reasonable range. Then, 3 in the top 75 is less likely than all 5. Having 4 or 5 in the top 75 is the most likely outcome, and remember the general point: That many Quad 1 road wins with an 8-10 conference record against really tough competition is enough to potentially make the tournament after winning a conference tournament game.

I think 2 or 3 is very possible. TCU, Providence, and St John's. TCU is independent of the others of course. TCU only has 2 games they're projected to win the rest of the season. Providence only has 2 games they're projected to win the rest of theway. St John's is already at 76, and they are only projected to win 2 games the rest of the way. Yes 2 would be worst case, but it is possible. I think you are wrong saying that 5 is more likely than 3. If all 5 were in the BE maybe- but TCU can fall out fairly easily. I think the odds are 4,3,5,2. DePaul isn't out of the woods either if they only win 1-2 more games as is projected.

[Savannah Jay]

Pulling wins out of 6 to 8 chances is far more plausible than pulling wins out of 4 games. Also, that scenario would have put X at 8-10 with 5 Quad 1 road wins. With a conference tournament win, a tournament bid isn't out of the question.

The splitting of Quad 1 comes up far more with seeding discussions than selection discussions. Wins against tournament teams are highly relevant for teams looking to get good seeds, but these wins will be limited for the last few teams because, well, they're rated more lowly than most tournament teams for a reason. It's just not that useful of a discussion for Bubble teams. For the Bubble teams where it's relevant (i.e. multiple wins against tournament teams), they generally have serious flaws elsewhere, like multiple bad losses. When discussing Bubble teams, you far more often hear about how they did versus other teams on or near the Bubble. That's essentially the back half of Quad 1 games.

You are assuming the Big East remains with all the teams in the top 75. Just today St John's fell out. TCU also is no lock, they are #67 right now. They would have had road wins vs TCU(67), DePaul(59), St John's(76), Georgetown(48), and Providence(65). Yes, best case they would have had 5 Q1 wins. But it's also possible they'd have had only 2-3 depending on how TCU, DePaul, and St John's shook out.

X will be really interesting. Still have 5 road games, with 4 being the back half of the league. It's right there for the taking for them... Tomorrow and Saturday are just huge games.

You are talking out of both sides of your Stever. I realize you aren't used to rooting for a conf without shitty teams, but teams don't drop like rocks because they lose a game to another good team. Case in point, DePaul is 1-8 in the Big East. I believe their NET on 12/31/19 was 67 (according to a post on this site dated 12/31/19). Now it's 59.

For your information, skew it as you see fit:

NET Rankings on 12/31/19 (prior to conf play) and today:
Butler 4; 12
Villanova 17; 13
Creighton 24; 14
Seton Hall 25; 16
Marquette 35; 25
Xavier 52; 47
Georgetown 29; 48
DePaul 67; 59
Providence 128; 65
St John's 51; 76

Butler, SJU and GU have slipped (Butler had plenty of margin for slippage) and every other team in the conference has a better NET now than they did prior to start of conference play. When there are no shitburgers on the menu, none are eaten.

[stever20]

Pulling wins out of 6 to 8 chances is far more plausible than pulling wins out of 4 games. Also, that scenario would have put X at 8-10 with 5 Quad 1 road wins. With a conference tournament win, a tournament bid isn't out of the question.

The splitting of Quad 1 comes up far more with seeding discussions than selection discussions. Wins against tournament teams are highly relevant for teams looking to get good seeds, but these wins will be limited for the last few teams because, well, they're rated more lowly than most tournament teams for a reason. It's just not that useful of a discussion for Bubble teams. For the Bubble teams where it's relevant (i.e. multiple wins against tournament teams), they generally have serious flaws elsewhere, like multiple bad losses. When discussing Bubble teams, you far more often hear about how they did versus other teams on or near the Bubble. That's essentially the back half of Quad 1 games.

You are assuming the Big East remains with all the teams in the top 75. Just today St John's fell out. TCU also is no lock, they are #67 right now. They would have had road wins vs TCU(67), DePaul(59), St John's(76), Georgetown(48), and Providence(65). Yes, best case they would have had 5 Q1 wins. But it's also possible they'd have had only 2-3 depending on how TCU, DePaul, and St John's shook out.

X will be really interesting. Still have 5 road games, with 4 being the back half of the league. It's right there for the taking for them... Tomorrow and Saturday are just huge games.

You are talking out of both sides of your Stever. I realize you aren't used to rooting for a conf without shitty teams, but teams don't drop like rocks because they lose a game to another good team. Case in point, DePaul is 1-8 in the Big East. I believe their NET on 12/31/19 was 67 (according to a post on this site dated 12/31/19). Now it's 59.

For your information, skew it as you see fit:

NET Rankings on 12/31/19 (prior to conf play) and today:
Butler 4; 12
Villanova 17; 13
Creighton 24; 14
Seton Hall 25; 16
Marquette 35; 25
Xavier 52; 47
Georgetown 29; 48
DePaul 67; 59
Providence 128; 65
St John's 51; 76

Butler, SJU and GU have slipped (Butler had plenty of margin for slippage) and every other team in the conference has a better NET now than they did prior to start of conference play. When there are no shitburgers on the menu, none are eaten.

small problem. conference play didn't start on 12/31.

looking at it between 12/28(which is Saturday prior to conference play starting and now)....
Butler 3/12 -9
Villanova 21/13 +8
Creighton 24/14 +10
Seton Hall 34/16 +18
Marquette 37/25 +12
Xavier 53/47 +6
Georgetown 31/48 -17
DePaul 38/59 -21
Providence 123/65 +58
St John's 49/76 -27

12/28 avg was 41.3
Today avg is 37.50

Butler, Georgetown, DePaul, and St John's have all slipped. Xavier had slipped but Saturday got them up.

you take out Providence, which is kind of realistic as the other 9 are the ones that entered conference play with a realistic chance-
12/28 32.22
today 34.44

[Hall2012]

I came out of the DePaul game thing SHU couldn't possibly play worse. I guess more accurate would have been they couldn't possibly play worse and still escape with a win. Today was far, far worse. The hustle stats tell you everything you need to know about their effort. 51-22 on the boards is absurd.

That said, it likely may have been the better result for the league. And hopefully a wake-up call for the Pirates.

So it had nothing to do with how Xavier played today?

I like Seton Hall and I certainly hope McKnight is okay, as I believe the Hall can go far in the NCAAT. But let's remember that Xavier was picked to finish 3rd in the conference this year. They have fumbled and bumbled themselves to their present position, but, with their backs truly against the wall today and coming off a heartbreaking 2 OT loss at home 3 nights ago, they went full throttle against the Pirates in New Jersey.

You can believe it was about the Pirates "playing worse", but they may have played that way against a team that still has a lot of fight in it and, more importantly, played with a clue - - most of the time.

I never said X didn't play well, they certainly did - battled hard and shot lights out - probably close to if not their best 3pt shooting game of the season. X playing well and SHU playing poorly are not mutually exclusive. When you get more than doubled up on the boards - that's on you, and it's an effort problem. It just shouldn't happen to a major college basketball team.

[gtmoBlue]

Perks: ICING ON THE CAKE!!!

Icing on the cake - Jays workout at the Mecca of Basketball!



Courtesy - Penn Basketball/Creighton Athletics

THIS...is why I love Philly! History, Tradition, Glory! Helluva city...helluva legacy!

[GumbyDamnit!]

You are talking out of both sides of your Stever. I realize you aren't used to rooting for a conf without shitty teams, but teams don't drop like rocks because they lose a game to another good team. Case in point, DePaul is 1-8 in the Big East. I believe their NET on 12/31/19 was 67 (according to a post on this site dated 12/31/19). Now it's 59.

For your information, skew it as you see fit:

NET Rankings on 12/31/19 (prior to conf play) and today:
Butler 4; 12
Villanova 17; 13
Creighton 24; 14
Seton Hall 25; 16
Marquette 35; 25
Xavier 52; 47
Georgetown 29; 48
DePaul 67; 59
Providence 128; 65
St John's 51; 76

Butler, SJU and GU have slipped (Butler had plenty of margin for slippage) and every other team in the conference has a better NET now than they did prior to start of conference play. When there are no shitburgers on the menu, none are eaten.

Nice work Savannah Jay! Excellent data...

[Xudash]

Word has it that McKnight's knee is only bruised. Will sit out for the Hoyas and be ready for Nova.

That's great news for Seton Hall and the Big East. He's too good to miss much time.