UConn 2020 Discussion - The Thread By AAC Fan Sam Elliott...

[BFieldHusky]

It's been a strange season for UConn. You are what your record says you are, and they are 10-9, and 1-5 in the American. Not good.

But they have lost 6 games by 6 points or less. Xavier, Indiana, Witchia State, @Villanova, @Houston, and at home to Tulsa today. If they win even 3 of those games, they are 13-6, and probably 3-3 in the conference. Outside the bubble, but not that far outside.

They are caught in between as Hurley has his 3 freshman class and one sophomore he recruited. He has a sophomore in Sid Wilson who is starting to turn a corner. He was an Ollie recruit.

Then you have a back court of Gilbert and Vital who have been terrible. They are both graduating. And a junior class of Carlton (major disappointment this year) Polley (out for the year with an ACL) and Whaley.

They have RJ Cole (MEAC player of the year) sitting out. He is expected to be a major upgrade on offense in place of Gilbert. And they have 2 Top 100 recruits coming in.

They are expected to have at least 1 scholarship in the spring.

This team is still aways a way from rounding into a solid program, but their record is somewhat misleading.

[SamElliott]

It's been a strange season for UConn. You are what your record says you are, and they are 10-9, and 1-5 in the American. Not good.

But they have lost 6 games by 6 points or less. Xavier, Indiana, Witchia State, @Villanova, @Houston, and at home to Tulsa today. If they win even 3 of those games, they are 13-6, and probably 3-3 in the conference.

This team is still aways a way from rounding into a solid program, but their record is somewhat misleading.

Its not exactly misleading. It’s Dan Hurley’s MO. He gets out coached in tight games. Frank Haith wasn’t losing that game yesterday. Tulsa is 8-4 versus UConn.

UConn’s record in the Dan Hurley era in games decided by 6 points or less:

2018-2019: 1-5
2019-2020: 1-6
Total of 2-11.

Here is a graph of the coaching records in games decided by less than 5 points. Minimum of 50 close games in kenpom era to qualify:

[billyjack]

I ran out of time, energy and interest in looking at Dan Hurley's coaching history, but this is what i found:

TL/DR:
results thru his first 4 years:
games within 4 points: 11-20.
games decided by exactly 5 or 6 points: 13-3.
games within 6 points: 24-23.
OT games: 6-2.

Considering the chart shows Hurley's record in 70 games or so... and his first 4 years take up 31 of those games and put him 9 games under 500... the chart is misleading cuz he's had to have been around 500 in his last 39 or so games within 4 points. And games within 5 or 6 points must put him over 500.

ok, long version:

1. he's in his 10th year of coaching:
- Wagner 2 years, URI 6 years, now in 2nd year at UConn.

- at Wagner in 2011 he inherited a 5-26 dreg program in a dreg conference.
- at URI in 2013, he inherited a 7-24 team that hadn't made an NCAA since Jim Harrick in 1999, and whose fanbase was beaten to a pulp with frustration..
- at UConn in 2019, he inherited 14-18 and 16-17 teams, with underperforming players and a frustrated fanbase which considered themselves to be in an uninspiring conference.

Each of these job was a rebuild, meaning 2 to 3 years of retaining current underperforming players, trying to get kids learn your system, and learning how to win... the last of which to me is a skill in itself, closing out games, executing and not overthinking.

So in his 10 years of coaching, arguably 3 at most of those were with his players, running his system, and with his culture. In those 3 years, Hurley made 2 NCAA's and advanced in both. And almost made a Sweet Sixteen. One of those NCAA's required him to run the table in the A-10 Tourney... not impossible, but a tough task.

Anyway, a closer look at his results in close games reveals some pro-Hurley numbers. The 5 points of fewer cutoff was significantly against him. If the cutoff was 5 or 6, the numbers are amazingly in his favor.

I looked at his 2 years at Wagner, and first 2 years at Rhody... then i got bored

2011 Wagner 13-17 overall:
results in games within 4 points: 4-7.
results in games within 5 points: 10-7.
results in OT games: 3-1.
yes, amazingly Wagner was 6-0 in games decided by exactly 5 points, including each of his 3 OT wins being by 5.
additionally, Wagner was 3-5 in games decided by exactly 4 points.

2012 Wagner 25-6 overall:
results in games within 4 points: 3-1.
results in games within 6 points: 6-2.
results in OT games: 0-0.

2013 Rhode Island 8-21 overall:
results in games within 4 points: 2-5.
results in games within 6 points: 5-6.
results in OT games: 2-1
URI was 3-1 in games decided by exactly 5 or 6 points... including a 2OT game vs Auburn.

2014 Rhode Island 14-18 overall:
lost a bunch of close games which frustrated the fanbase, but this was still a rebuild. So 2-7 in games within 4, and 3-8 in games within 5. Also URI was 1-0 in OT.

I got bored at this point.

But results thru his first 4 years:
games within 4 points: 11-20.
games decided by exactly 5 or 6 points: 13-3.
games within 6 points: 24-23.
OT games: 6-2.

[stever20]

so looking-
First off Hurley is 2-6 this year in 6 points or less. Wins over Florida and Tulane...

last 4 years he's only 14-22 in games 6 points or less. 3-12 at UConn and 11-10 at RI. 2-3 in OT in those 4 years

Combing with Billyjacks numbers he's 38-45 in games 6 points or less. 8-5 in OT

I'd say those figures are probably a slightly below average close game coach. His 2 great years at RI only being 11-10 I think being the prime evidence when they went 51-18 overall in those 2 years...

[adoraz]

Without reading any posts here, I'll just say that UConn is much better than their record. They've simply been unlucky this year with a ton of close losses. Next year they'll probably be a projected bubble team. That's more important given that next year they could start bringing in credits, better TV ratings, improved attendance, and all the other benefits UConn will bring. Even this year's team would have helped with padding the records of a bunch of Big East teams while still having a good OOC NET.

As I've said before, even a mediocre UConn is still more valuable to the Big East than anyone else in the AAC. They won't be down for long and have a bright future.

Finally, I think for all of our sakes it'll be better for UConn to return to being a top team after their return to the Big East. Can't have them too cocky coming in . This year we have a little bit of a "AAC vs Big East" thing going on (which the Big East obviously won), but going forward the comparisons will be less and less significant the same way few AAC/Big East fans care about Syracuse, Pitt, BC, Rutgers, Louisville, Miami, WVU, and the rest of the teams that left. Rather, it'll be more about our fan bases living with each other and being happy about the state of our conference.

[SamElliott]

Without reading any posts here, I'll just say that UConn is much better than their record. They've simply been unlucky this year with a ton of close losses. Next year they'll probably be a projected bubble team. That's more important given that next year they could start bringing in credits, better TV ratings, improved attendance, and all the other benefits UConn will bring. Even this year's team would have helped with padding the records of a bunch of Big East teams while still having a good OOC NET.

As I've said before, even a mediocre UConn is still more valuable to the Big East than anyone else in the AAC. They won't be down for long and have a bright future.

Finally, I think for all of our sakes it'll be better for UConn to return to being a top team after their return to the Big East. Can't have them too cocky coming in . This year we have a little bit of a "AAC vs Big East" thing going on (which the Big East obviously won), but going forward the comparisons will be less and less significant the same way few AAC/Big East fans care about Syracuse, Pitt, BC, Rutgers, Louisville, Miami, WVU, and the rest of the teams that left. Rather, it'll be more about our fan bases living with each other and being happy about the state of our conference.

[adoraz]

Without reading any posts here, I'll just say that UConn is much better than their record. They've simply been unlucky this year with a ton of close losses. Next year they'll probably be a projected bubble team. That's more important given that next year they could start bringing in credits, better TV ratings, improved attendance, and all the other benefits UConn will bring. Even this year's team would have helped with padding the records of a bunch of Big East teams while still having a good OOC NET.

As I've said before, even a mediocre UConn is still more valuable to the Big East than anyone else in the AAC. They won't be down for long and have a bright future.

Finally, I think for all of our sakes it'll be better for UConn to return to being a top team after their return to the Big East. Can't have them too cocky coming in . This year we have a little bit of a "AAC vs Big East" thing going on (which the Big East obviously won), but going forward the comparisons will be less and less significant the same way few AAC/Big East fans care about Syracuse, Pitt, BC, Rutgers, Louisville, Miami, WVU, and the rest of the teams that left. Rather, it'll be more about our fan bases living with each other and being happy about the state of our conference.

Assume this was directed at others, because I don't see how my post could be interpreted as "sensitive pussy" lol.

As mentioned, I haven't bothered reading anything else in this thread because I pretty much already know how the discussion has gone. I avoid other conference realignment threads for that same reason.

In short, we won't expand anytime soon and UConn is a great addition regardless of their record this year. Nothing I've read online has changed my mind about that, and I'm sure 99% of this board has that same mentality.

[Husky_U]

UCONN's best players are all Freshmen and Sophomores. Again, the sooner we wash off the Ollie stank (ie get rid of his recruits), the better.

[butlerguy03]

The Big East was a major improvement for UConn and EVERY. SINGLE. AAC. SCHOOL. would do the same thing. It will be the single biggest story of early conference season next year, especially when they play the likes of Villanova, Georgetown, St. John's and the other C7.

As a Butler fan, I hope that DePaul and UConn can lift the women's game up. Right now the best players in Indiana go to IU, Purdue, or Notre Dame. It's time for Butler to become the 4th major team in women's basketball like it did in men's. It won't be fun to watch BU get hammered by 100 the first few years though.

[Bogg]

As a Butler fan, I hope that DePaul and UConn can lift the women's game up. Right now the best players in Indiana go to IU, Purdue, or Notre Dame. It's time for Butler to become the 4th major team in women's basketball like it did in men's. It won't be fun to watch BU get hammered by 100 the first few years though.

I'm a little curious to see what the conference does with the women's tournament. Currently the Big East women's tournament appears to be in a run at Wintrust and the AAC tournament is parked at Mohegan Sun through this year. Can't imagine anyone involved would want to continue the AAC-Mohegan relationship sans-UConn, so that venue will be opening up, but the Big East as a whole (and especially DePaul) probably owe the city of Chicago a bit of a thank you for getting Wintrust built. I could see the women's tournament bouncing between the Mohegan and Wintrust on an annual basis and that working out for everyone.