Bracketology

[ecasadoSBU]

All teams in TOP 76 KENPOM/NET.

Thats crazy

[stever20]

All teams in TOP 76 KENPOM/NET.

Thats crazy

Not in the NET.... St John's is #77 today and Providence is #80 today.

[kayako]

Lunardi 1/21:

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

3 Hall
3 Butler
4 Nova
8 Creighton
8 Marquette
12 Georgetown

DePaul 3rd out
Xavier 6th out

[adoraz]

At this point I'm just waiting for the BET/NCAAT and hope the Big East is well represented in the bracket. Writing has been on the wall for the Johnnies since the third game of Big East play. Not that I'm rooting against the Johnnies obviously- I still would rather we beat teams than lose even if it costs other teams a seed line or whatever. It's just that I don't really care anymore. Can't get excited for the NIT and even that is unlikely at this point. I didn't feel stressed out at all watching our game last night as I have zero expectations going forward. That's how you know your season is over.

It was a GREAT OOC slate and I'm also really glad that the rest of the Big East is doing so well since I'll still have something to root for. I won't be too active on here the rest of the year as I don't really care about exact seed lines/the bubble/etc for most teams, but I'm hoping to see Hall win the league and grab a 1/2 seed. Even though Hall is our closest rival I still want to see the league shaken up a bit and Hall has the best shot at dethroning Nova.

[REDMEN1415]

At this point I'm just waiting for the BET/NCAAT and hope the Big East is well represented in the bracket. Writing has been on the wall for the Johnnies since the third game of Big East play. Not that I'm rooting against the Johnnies obviously- I still would rather we beat teams than lose even if it costs other teams a seed line or whatever. It's just that I don't really care anymore. Can't get excited for the NIT and even that is unlikely at this point. I didn't feel stressed out at all watching our game last night as I have zero expectations going forward. That's how you know your season is over.

It was a GREAT OOC slate and I'm also really glad that the rest of the Big East is doing so well since I'll still have something to root for. I won't be too active on here the rest of the year as I don't really care about exact seed lines/the bubble/etc for most teams, but I'm hoping to see Hall win the league and grab a 1/2 seed. Even though Hall is our closest rival I still want to see the league shaken up a bit and Hall has the best shot at dethroning Nova.

Here's our team in a nut shell.

Give up open threes all game long.
Can't hit layups.
On 10 foot jumpers they shoot over the entire hoop.
See Greg Williams, comes in from the three point line, no one is on him, stops and shoots a 10-ft jumper, freaking air ball over the rim.
wtf kind of basketball is this?

[eye of the jay]

Looking at the way the season has started for the Big East, I think we'll most likely get 6 teams in. Right now, every team is still alive for at-large possibilities, and it wouldn't take a herculean effort to get there. As it stands, there are 5 teams that are safely in the tourney, 3 that are out now but knocking on the door and 2 that have long-shot at-large possibilities.

Going to take a strong finish:
St. John's 7-4 to close
Providence 7-4 to close
If either of these teams can catch fire and finish at 8-10 or 11-7 respectively they both have a pretty decent shot at an at-large (it would probably take 1 more win in the BE tourney, too). Both have 2 Q1 wins already and with a finish like the one above would probably have 4/5 by the end of the season. I'd put both of their chances at 10%.

Above-average finish:
Georgetown 6-5
Xavier 6-6
Depaul 7-5
Really sluggish starts for all 3 of these teams to start BE play, but I think if they get to 8-10 all of them have a shot. They're all on the bubble, just barely out right now, and I think 1 of the 3 will make the tournament. Xavier has 1 Q1 win, but have 7 of the final 12 on the road so lots of opportunities. Depaul already has 3 Q1 wins, but the losses in the BE are starting to pile up. Georgetown, like Xavier has no bad losses and 2 Q1 wins to go along with some nice road/neutral wins against so-so programs like SMU, Ok State and Texas. Georgetown 25%, Xavier 40%, Depaul 30% to get in.

Average/below-average finish:
Creighton 5-6
Marquette 5-6
Creighton and Marquette are both sitting in good spots right now and going close to .500 the rest of the way will lock up a spot. I give them both around an 80-85% chance of making the tournament at this point.

Locks:
Butler, Villanova and Seton Hall. Butler separated themselves in non-con and could probably afford a 7-11 BE and still make the tourney. Nova and Seton Hall are trending toward Top 4 seeds (same with Butler if they right the ship and finish 11-7 or better) I'll go 95% for all 3 of making the tourney.


With that very rough math, I would put our average # of bids at ~5.65 right now and would break it down as 35% at 5, 45% at 6, 15% at 7 and 5% at 8. If Hall and Nova struggle down the stretch like Marquette and Nova did last year, then I think the league can get it up to 7. I don't find it likely though, and for that reason I'll go with 6.

[stever20]

Looking at the way the season has started for the Big East, I think we'll most likely get 6 teams in. Right now, every team is still alive for at-large possibilities, and it wouldn't take a herculean effort to get there. As it stands, there are 5 teams that are safely in the tourney, 3 that are out now but knocking on the door and 2 that have long-shot at-large possibilities.

Going to take a strong finish:
St. John's 7-4 to close
Providence 7-4 to close
If either of these teams can catch fire and finish at 8-10 or 11-7 respectively they both have a pretty decent shot at an at-large (it would probably take 1 more win in the BE tourney, too). Both have 2 Q1 wins already and with a finish like the one above would probably have 4/5 by the end of the season. I'd put both of their chances at 10%.

Above-average finish:
Georgetown 6-5
Xavier 6-6
Depaul 7-5
Really sluggish starts for all 3 of these teams to start BE play, but I think if they get to 8-10 all of them have a shot. They're all on the bubble, just barely out right now, and I think 1 of the 3 will make the tournament. Xavier has 1 Q1 win, but have 7 of the final 12 on the road so lots of opportunities. Depaul already has 3 Q1 wins, but the losses in the BE are starting to pile up. Georgetown, like Xavier has no bad losses and 2 Q1 wins to go along with some nice road/neutral wins against so-so programs like SMU, Ok State and Texas. Georgetown 25%, Xavier 40%, Depaul 30% to get in.

Average/below-average finish:
Creighton 5-6
Marquette 5-6
Creighton and Marquette are both sitting in good spots right now and going close to .500 the rest of the way will lock up a spot. I give them both around an 80-85% chance of making the tournament at this point.

Locks:
Butler, Villanova and Seton Hall. Butler separated themselves in non-con and could probably afford a 7-11 BE and still make the tourney. Nova and Seton Hall are trending toward Top 4 seeds (same with Butler if they right the ship and finish 11-7 or better) I'll go 95% for all 3 of making the tourney.


With that very rough math, I would put our average # of bids at ~5.65 right now and would break it down as 35% at 5, 45% at 6, 15% at 7 and 5% at 8. If Hall and Nova struggle down the stretch like Marquette and Nova did last year, then I think the league can get it up to 7. I don't find it likely though, and for that reason I'll go with 6.

Lets look at raw number for the 3 above average finishes...
Georgetown- would be 18-13
Xavier would be 19-12
DePaul would be 20-11

I think Xavier and DePaul would be pretty safe. Georgetown on the other hand...

Now strong finish teams
St John's- you say 8-10 makes it. That takes them to 19-12. Reasonable
Providence- you say 11-7 makes it. That takes them to 18-13. I do not think that gets them in with all their bad losses...

Butler.... If they go 7-11, they would be only 4-8 after the injury to David. Would definitely be something to watch there. No lock yet.

I think your overall % are pretty reasonable, except I don't think there is a viable path to 8 at all. Would mean 2 of St John's, Providence, Georgetown, Xavier, and DePaul go at large, and 3rd one wins the BET. It would take a 1 in a billion type of scenario for that to take place.

[GumbyDamnit!]

All teams in TOP 76 KENPOM/NET.

Thats crazy

Not in the NET.... St John's is #77 today and Providence is #80 today.

Vintage Stever right there. How dare you be so inaccurate ESBU!!!!

[REDMEN1415]

Looking at the way the season has started for the Big East, I think we'll most likely get 6 teams in. Right now, every team is still alive for at-large possibilities, and it wouldn't take a herculean effort to get there. As it stands, there are 5 teams that are safely in the tourney, 3 that are out now but knocking on the door and 2 that have long-shot at-large possibilities.

Going to take a strong finish:
St. John's 7-4 to close
Providence 7-4 to close
If either of these teams can catch fire and finish at 8-10 or 11-7 respectively they both have a pretty decent shot at an at-large (it would probably take 1 more win in the BE tourney, too). Both have 2 Q1 wins already and with a finish like the one above would probably have 4/5 by the end of the season. I'd put both of their chances at 10%.

Above-average finish:
Georgetown 6-5
Xavier 6-6
Depaul 7-5
Really sluggish starts for all 3 of these teams to start BE play, but I think if they get to 8-10 all of them have a shot. They're all on the bubble, just barely out right now, and I think 1 of the 3 will make the tournament. Xavier has 1 Q1 win, but have 7 of the final 12 on the road so lots of opportunities. Depaul already has 3 Q1 wins, but the losses in the BE are starting to pile up. Georgetown, like Xavier has no bad losses and 2 Q1 wins to go along with some nice road/neutral wins against so-so programs like SMU, Ok State and Texas. Georgetown 25%, Xavier 40%, Depaul 30% to get in.

Average/below-average finish:
Creighton 5-6
Marquette 5-6
Creighton and Marquette are both sitting in good spots right now and going close to .500 the rest of the way will lock up a spot. I give them both around an 80-85% chance of making the tournament at this point.

Locks:
Butler, Villanova and Seton Hall. Butler separated themselves in non-con and could probably afford a 7-11 BE and still make the tourney. Nova and Seton Hall are trending toward Top 4 seeds (same with Butler if they right the ship and finish 11-7 or better) I'll go 95% for all 3 of making the tourney.


With that very rough math, I would put our average # of bids at ~5.65 right now and would break it down as 35% at 5, 45% at 6, 15% at 7 and 5% at 8. If Hall and Nova struggle down the stretch like Marquette and Nova did last year, then I think the league can get it up to 7. I don't find it likely though, and for that reason I'll go with 6.

Sju is done, no shot when you can't shoot.

[kayako]

It is fascinating that there is a scenario of the ACC only getting 3 teams in.