Bracketology

[kayako]

Palm 1/20:

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

3 Hall
3 Nova
4 Butler
7 Creighton
7 Marquette
10 DePaul

[gtmoBlue]

https://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com ... rojection/

7 from the BE...

2 SH
3 But
4 Nova
5 Crei
6 Marq
10 DePaul
11 Gtwn

[stever20]

https://collegebasketball.nbcsports.com/2020/01/20/ncaa-tournament-bracketology-projection/

7 from the BE...

2 SH
3 But
4 Nova
5 Crei
6 Marq
10 DePaul
11 Gtwn

like I said before- same guy as bracketville…

Georgetown 2nd team in right now.

[paulxu]

It's so strange (and depressing) not to see Xavier on those lists.

[gtmoBlue]

Jays just need to get in the St Louis sub-regional for the 1st 2 rounds. Karma and the basketball gods will do the rest.

NBC has Jays a 5-seed
Bracketville a 5-seed
CBS (Palm) a 7-seed (in St Louis)
Bracket Matrix a 6-seed
ESPN (Lunardi) a 7-seed
WatchStadium (TK Bracket) a 7-seed

[herodotus]

We're facing a bit of a dilemma here. I can clearly see a path to 8 bids, but also a path to only 5. The problem is, the path to 5 involves the top 5 teams basically crushing the bottom 5. This would give us only 5 bids, but the seeds would be great. The path to 8 requires 6-7-8 to pull some upsets, including against the top 3. 8 teams is nice, but the seeds won't be so hot. I think we can squeeze out 6 bids without damaging our seeding too much, so this is what I'm hoping for.

[kayako]

Jays just need to get in the St Louis sub-regional for the 1st 2 rounds. Karma and the basketball gods will do the rest.

NBC has Jays a 5-seed
Bracketville a 5-seed
CBS (Palm) a 7-seed (in St Louis)
Bracket Matrix a 6-seed
ESPN (Lunardi) a 7-seed
WatchStadium (TK Bracket) a 7-seed

bracketville and NBC is the same guy. I made the same mistake earlier

[stever20]

Jays just need to get in the St Louis sub-regional for the 1st 2 rounds. Karma and the basketball gods will do the rest.

NBC has Jays a 5-seed
Bracketville a 5-seed
CBS (Palm) a 7-seed (in St Louis)
Bracket Matrix a 6-seed
ESPN (Lunardi) a 7-seed
WatchStadium (TK Bracket) a 7-seed

I don't think realistically Creighton would be placed in St Louis no matter what. Not going to put a top 1-2 seed as such a road team disadvantage.

Just like I think the committee unless Seton Hall got a 1 seed would put them in NYC or Butler same thing with Indianapolis. Same thing they did with Xavier/Villanova 4-5 years ago.

[GumbyDamnit!]

We're facing a bit of a dilemma here. I can clearly see a path to 8 bids, but also a path to only 5. The problem is, the path to 5 involves the top 5 teams basically crushing the bottom 5. This would give us only 5 bids, but the seeds would be great. The path to 8 requires 6-7-8 to pull some upsets, including against the top 3. 8 teams is nice, but the seeds won't be so hot. I think we can squeeze out 6 bids without damaging our seeding too much, so this is what I'm hoping for.

I don't think there are 5 teams that are clearly able to "dominate" the other 5. Too many good teams this year. It's going to be a grind. I think SHU could separate and work themselves into a high seed. Butler and Nova are probably the next two most likely. PC can finish 2nd and their OOC is going to keep them from a respectable seed if they can sneak in.

The other side of the coin is that let's just say that SHU, Nova and Butler separate and each finish somewhere north of 12 wins in conference. The NET rankings of those 3 will be really high. I can't see a scenario where the committee might penalize a team for going 1-5 vs. Top 15 NET teams. So a team like say G'town could go 1-5 vs. those 3, and 7-5 vs everyone else and still be in pretty good shape to make the dance. I don't see any scenario--unless it's a Stever-type, everything-goes-completely-bad-for the league, and we get 5 or less. My opinion, we're getting 6 solely based on having the top conference in all metrics, and if one of those other 4 win the BET (which is a distinct possibility this year) we could sneak in 7.

[stever20]

We're facing a bit of a dilemma here. I can clearly see a path to 8 bids, but also a path to only 5. The problem is, the path to 5 involves the top 5 teams basically crushing the bottom 5. This would give us only 5 bids, but the seeds would be great. The path to 8 requires 6-7-8 to pull some upsets, including against the top 3. 8 teams is nice, but the seeds won't be so hot. I think we can squeeze out 6 bids without damaging our seeding too much, so this is what I'm hoping for.

I don't think there are 5 teams that are clearly able to "dominate" the other 5. Too many good teams this year. It's going to be a grind. I think SHU could separate and work themselves into a high seed. Butler and Nova are probably the next two most likely. PC can finish 2nd and their OOC is going to keep them from a respectable seed if they can sneak in.

The other side of the coin is that let's just say that SHU, Nova and Butler separate and each finish somewhere north of 12 wins in conference. The NET rankings of those 3 will be really high. I can't see a scenario where the committee might penalize a team for going 1-5 vs. Top 15 NET teams. So a team like say G'town could go 1-5 vs. those 3, and 7-5 vs everyone else and still be in pretty good shape to make the dance. I don't see any scenario--unless it's a Stever-type, everything-goes-completely-bad-for the league, scenario. My opinion, we're getting 6 solely based on having the top conference in all metrics, and if one of those other 4 win the BET (which is a distinct possibility this year) we could sneak in 7.

It really wouldn't take an everything goes bad scenario for the league to get only 5.

Your thing with Georgetown going 8-10 and making it- that would put their overall record at 18-13. They could easily have to win something in the BET....

Right now here are the projected Big East Standings from Ken Pom(binary so 51% is a win)
Seton Hall 17-1 25-5
Butler 14-4 26-5
Villanova 13-5 24-7
Marquette 9-9 19-11
Creighton 9-9 19-11(20 wins but 1 is D2 win)
DePaul 7-11 18-12(19 wins but 1 is D2 win)
Georgetown 6-12 16-15
Providence 6-12 13-18
Xavier 5-13 16-15
St John's 4-14 15-16

DePaul is the real interesting one. They have 3 wins in the projection that would be really interesting... home vs Creighton, Marquette, and Villanova. If DePaul lost 1 or more of those, they're in trouble as well.