NET rankings

[stever20]

What are the pointspreads? Like it or not, your MOV matters. Part of Nova's problems is that they have 3 losses, and all 3 are by 9 points or more. Seton Hall 2 10 point losses hurt. Arizona/Stanford both with only 1 10 point loss...

and then-
Stanford 3 wins by less than 10 out of 14
Arizona 3 wins by less than 10 out of 11
SH 3 wins by less than 10 out of 12
Nova 6 wins by less than 10 out of 13

A game like last night where you're playing #72 team at home and win by 1 point(remember all OT games count as a 1 point win). That hurts.

If your argument is truly what the NET numbers support then I give up... Are you really telling me that since Nova and SHU decided to have a more difficult schedule then say Stanford, and thus had less 10 pt MOV's, then they are penalized? SHU HAS PLAYED 6 MORE Q1 AND 7 MORE Q1/Q2 GAMES THAN STANFORD. Of course they are going to have less net 10+ pt MOV's. It is absolutely amazing that any formula would look at a team with 0 Q1 wins and a Q2 win on a neutral court vs. the #51 team, and conclude that they have proven that they are the 11th best team in the country. In effect they are a top 3 seed.

Please God put us in that region as the 6 seed.

SOS-
Stanford 117
Arizona 10
Seton Hall 38
Villanova 19

Nova's problem has been this-
vs 147 Penn 11 point win
vs 179 La Salle 11 point win
vs 186 Delaware 8 point win
vs 220 St Joe's 12 point win

you're going to get dinged by those kind of games now. 4 pretty unimpressive wins- all 4 in Q3 or 4. If DePaul falls to 76, would be a 5th.

[adoraz]

I also wonder if the NET will be used closer this season. where a team like St John's last year doesn't make it.

Anything is possible, but I think that's extremely unlikely and I'll get to why in a second.

As for St. John's, our inclusion wasn't a surprise last year. Most bracketologists had us in the Dance prior to the official bracket unveiling. On Bracket Matrix we were the second to last team in, and the Committee put us in as the last team. The bracketologists knew St. John's would make it despite never having seen how the Committee would fill out a bracket under the new NET system. In fact, there were very, very few surprises in the official unveiling. This implies that the Committee simply replaced RPI with NET and kept all their other factors the same, such as a heavy emphasis on Q1 wins.

I think it's very unlikely they'll put more of an emphasis on NET (and thus less on Q1 wins), because then they'd encourage teams to schedule weaker opponents. That'd be a really bad business move, which is why they didn't put NC State in the Dance last year with their great NET (somewhere in the 30's) but terrible OOC SOS and Q1 record. Coaches admitted to watching how the Committee would seed teams before finalizing their OOC schedules, and the Committee went with what was best for the game.

Unless the Committee decides to completely change how they've been seeding teams for years (again, a bad business move), the Big East will be in a great position with all their Q1 opportunities.

[kayako]

Conversely, Nova actually has a couple Q1 wins but did only beat 6 of the 7 Q3/Q4 opponents by the max 10 pt spread. And that other one was by 8. So that must be it.

MOV factor doesn't cap at 10 points due to efficiency numbers. Nova didn't exactly blow away Big5 opponents they've played, who will all finish NET 150+

If your argument is truly what the NET numbers support then I give up... Are you really telling me that since Nova and SHU decided to have a more difficult schedule then say Stanford, and thus had less 10 pt MOV's, then they are penalized?

This was said to stever, but I've been screaming at anyone who'd listen that the NET doesn't appear to reward tough schedule. I remain convinced that going to 20 conference games has more cons than pros.

[stever20]

Conversely, Nova actually has a couple Q1 wins but did only beat 6 of the 7 Q3/Q4 opponents by the max 10 pt spread. And that other one was by 8. So that must be it.

MOV factor doesn't cap at 10 points due to efficiency numbers. Nova didn't exactly blow away Big5 opponents they've played, who will all finish NET 150+

If your argument is truly what the NET numbers support then I give up... Are you really telling me that since Nova and SHU decided to have a more difficult schedule then say Stanford, and thus had less 10 pt MOV's, then they are penalized?

This was said to stever, but I've been screaming at anyone who'd listen that the NET doesn't appear to reward tough schedule. I remain convinced that going to 20 conference games has more cons than pros.

I think that it should be remembered a guy who was a big part of designing the NET was Mark Few from Gonzaga. That should tell you something.

[GumbyDamnit!]

So, in effect, blowing teams off the court rewards teams. It’ll be a great look NCAA when Calipari keeps his starting 5 on the floor til the last few minutes in a 30 point game.

Using my example of Stanford, am I to conclude that a team that has exactly the same # of Q1 wins as St. Joe’s (PA), would be seeded 3rd in the tourney if they used NET rankings as the selection and seeding metric?

That’s all I need to know...

[stever20]

So, in effect, blowing teams off the court rewards teams. It’ll be a great look NCAA when Calipari keeps his starting 5 on the floor til the last few minutes in a 30 point game.

Using my example of Stanford, am I to conclude that a team that has exactly the same # of Q1 wins as St. Joe’s (PA), would be seeded 3rd in the tourney if they used NET rankings as the selection and seeding metric?

That’s all I need to know...

I think it's more don't struggle to beat bad to mediocre teams repeatedly. Don't have 4 Q3-4 wins by 12 points or fewer. Your easy games need to be easy games. Everyone when you get to conference play is going to have close hard games.

[kayako]

Using my example of Stanford, am I to conclude that a team that has exactly the same # of Q1 wins as St. Joe’s (PA), would be seeded 3rd in the tourney if they used NET rankings as the selection and seeding metric?

That’s all I need to know...

No one system can cover 353 teams. They think the NET is a good compromise between true predictive models and the old RPI model that's more result oriented. We're lucky that there's still the "committee" that parses these models and many other factors to pick the best 68. There may be some bias. There may be illogical seedings. But the BE has yet to be screwed over.

[Fieldhouse Flyer]

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketbal ... t-rankings

NET Rankings - Through Games January 16, 2020

7 – Butler
12 - Seton Hall
20 – Villanova
30 – Creighton
35 – Marquette
48 – Georgetown

63 - DePaul
67 - Xavier
74 - St. John’s
86 – Providence
90 - UConn

[stever20]

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketbal ... t-rankings

NET Rankings - Through Games January 16, 2020

7 – Butler
12 - Seton Hall
20 – Villanova
30 – Creighton
35 – Marquette
48 – Georgetown

63 - DePaul
67 - Xavier
74 - St. John’s
86 – Providence
90 - UConn

Your split off at 50 really isn't accurate any longer... The big splits are between 30 to 31(top 30 is home Q1 games) and between 75 and 76(top 75 is away Q1 games).

[stever20]

What are the pointspreads? Like it or not, your MOV matters. Part of Nova's problems is that they have 3 losses, and all 3 are by 9 points or more. Seton Hall 2 10 point losses hurt. Arizona/Stanford both with only 1 10 point loss...

and then-
Stanford 3 wins by less than 10 out of 14
Arizona 3 wins by less than 10 out of 11
SH 3 wins by less than 10 out of 12
Nova 6 wins by less than 10 out of 13

A game like last night where you're playing #72 team at home and win by 1 point(remember all OT games count as a 1 point win). That hurts.

If your argument is truly what the NET numbers support then I give up... Are you really telling me that since Nova and SHU decided to have a more difficult schedule then say Stanford, and thus had less 10 pt MOV's, then they are penalized? SHU HAS PLAYED 6 MORE Q1 AND 7 MORE Q1/Q2 GAMES THAN STANFORD. Of course they are going to have less net 10+ pt MOV's. It is absolutely amazing that any formula would look at a team with 0 Q1 wins and a Q2 win on a neutral court vs. the #51 team, and conclude that they have proven that they are the 11th best team in the country. In effect they are a top 3 seed.

Please God put us in that region as the 6 seed.

SOS-
Stanford 117
Arizona 10
Seton Hall 38
Villanova 19

Nova's problem has been this-
vs 147 Penn 11 point win
vs 179 La Salle 11 point win
vs 186 Delaware 8 point win
vs 220 St Joe's 12 point win

you're going to get dinged by those kind of games now. 4 pretty unimpressive wins- all 4 in Q3 or 4. If DePaul falls to 76, would be a 5th.

UConn going into the game today was #90. So a 5th Q3/Q4 game for Nova where they didn't win by more than 12. That's why Nova is so low in the NET.