Bracketology

[stever20]

I agree it's unsustainable, but if it did sustain then only 5 teams would make the Dance (including Providence). 5/10 are 1-3 or worse in conference. What I expect to happen is Providence won't continue playing this well and won't make it, so then we'd be down to 4 teams. Then Marquette and one of Georgetown/Xavier will get to at least 8/9 wins and we'll get 6 teams in the Tournament.

Basically we still could get anywhere from 4-9 teams in. I think 6 is most likely, followed by 7, 5, 8, 4, 9.

I don't think there is a remotely possible scenario where only 4 teams would get in....

I don't either, which is why I put 4 as the second to least likely scenario... 4 and 9 (least likely) have probably a less than 1% chance at happening.

Stop nitpicking, please, otherwise I'll stop responding to your posts.

I'd put both at a 0% chance quite frankly. I don't think there's a scenario out there that would get 4 or 9.

I think your order of 6,7,5,8 is right... I'd probably say
6- 45%
7- 40%
5- 14%
8- 1%(would take a very remote possibility to get that)

[adoraz]

As I said, less than 1% for 4 bids. 0% would be 2 or 3 bids. 4 would happen if Seton Hall/Villanova/Butler/one other dominate and Providence wins a lot of games but ends up on the wrong side of the bubble. It'd be extremely unlikely but it absolutely is possible where the bottom half all ends up in the 4-14 through 8-10 range. Last year THIRD place was 9-9 (a 4 way tie) and we also had a far less dominate top half.

You're just nitpicking, which is why you agreed with the main part of my post but originally neglected to say that and chose to only focus on the smallest part that you could disagree with. At least we can agree on what is important, which is the rest of my post.

[kayako]

6, 7, 5, 8 sounds about right, with others combining to less than 1% chance. I think 7-11 conference record isn't automatically NIT, as the bubble will inevitably weaken. Wed/Thur BET games are setting up to be huge.

2018 #1 seeded Xavier and #1 seeded Villanova combined to lose 6 games (1 in BET) to the other 8 schools. There's very small chance that all of SHU, Butler, and Nova keeping up the current pace.

[stever20]

6, 7, 5, 8 sounds about right, with others combining to less than 1% chance. I think 7-11 conference record isn't automatically NIT, as the bubble will inevitably weaken. Wed/Thur BET games are setting up to be huge.

2018 #1 seeded Xavier and #1 seeded Villanova combined to lose 6 games (1 in BET) to the other 8 schools. There's very small chance that all of SHU, Butler, and Nova keeping up the current pace.

I think the 2 that could have gotten in at 7-11- Butler, Nova- are well over that right now. I don't know the others could get in with that record....

The issue with the bubble this year is there's so many teams right now in play that someone has to get helped by games. Saturday Ohio St and Penn St play. Someone has to win that game. The loser isn't out, but the winner is that much closer to making the tourney.

[kayako]

The issue with the bubble this year is there's so many teams right now in play that someone has to get helped by games.

That is the bubble every year. It won't be too long before the bubble is reduced to the last 8 in/first 8 out. The conferences I'd be worried about is the WCC and the A10. I'm not sure I like BYU, SMC, and VCU's odds.

[stever20]

The issue with the bubble this year is there's so many teams right now in play that someone has to get helped by games.

That is the bubble every year. It won't be too long before the bubble is reduced to the last 8 in/first 8 out. The conferences I'd be worried about is the WCC and the A10. I'm not sure I like BYU, SMC, and VCU's odds.

it feels like there's a lot more teams right now on the bubble.

Right now we have 41 P6 teams at 5 or fewer losses. out of 75 teams. And then 11 more with 6 and 12 more with 7. So I think you can't really count on it getting reduced that much quite frankly.

[stever20]

One thing that'll be interesting to see of course is I guess now 3 weeks from tomorrow when the committee does the sweet 16 projection reveal.

1 thing to watch with that will be with Butler if they aren't a 1 seed, are they moved out of Indianapolis to not give the 1 seed a disadvantage. They did that with Nova of course what 4 years ago when the regional was at Wells Fargo and they moved them to Louisville instead of Wells Fargo.

(of course it worked out for Nova as they won the whole damn thing)

[stever20]

As I said, less than 1% for 4 bids. 0% would be 2 or 3 bids. 4 would happen if Seton Hall/Villanova/Butler/one other dominate and Providence wins a lot of games but ends up on the wrong side of the bubble. It'd be extremely unlikely but it absolutely is possible where the bottom half all ends up in the 4-14 through 8-10 range. Last year THIRD place was 9-9 (a 4 way tie) and we also had a far less dominate top half.

You're just nitpicking, which is why you agreed with the main part of my post but originally neglected to say that and chose to only focus on the smallest part that you could disagree with. At least we can agree on what is important, which is the rest of my post.

Lunardi today is why I think it's hard to see a possible scenario for 4.

Butler 2
Nova 4
Seton Hall 4
Creighton 7
Marquette 8
Georgetown 11(next to last team in)
Xavier 1st team out

to get only 4, both Georgetown and Xavier would have to fall out- and then one of Creighton/Marquette as well. While at the same time none of St John's, DePaul, or Providence getting enough wins. I know I always say conference play is a zero sum game- someone has to lose. Well here it's the converse- someone has to win.

[kayako]

Both Lunardi and Bracketville has 12 B1G teams in. I doubt it holds, but 12/14 would be an unprecedented achievement

[kayako]

Bracketville 1/20:

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

2 Seton Hall
3 Butler
4 Nova
5 Creighton
6 Marquette
10 DePaul
11 Georgetown
Xavier 4th out
SJU 7th out