NET rankings

[stever20]

it seems like the ratings are starting to stabalize some. Case in point, Xavier didn't fall much after a home loss to Creighton- something that 1-2 weeks ago would have been a 10-15 spot drop(it was only a 4 spot drop).

[ConnersvilleBulldog]

Kind of interesting, Butler grads are coaching the #1 and #2 teams in the NET.

[GumbyDamnit!]

https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats%20Library/NET%20Team%20Sheets%20-%20Jan.%2014,%202020.pdf

Ok, so put me in the camp that is thoroughly confused by the Net Rankings:

Blind Resume' time:

Team 1
Q1 0-2 2N; 4H
Q2 2-0 (1 N win v. 51)
Q3/Q4 12 - 0

Team 2
Q1 0-4 1A; 7H; 13A; 45A
Q2 2-1 (both wins at H; so 0 Q1 or Q2 wins A or N)
Q3/4 - 9-0

Team 3
Q1 4-4 1 home loss / 1 home win; 2 away losses / 3 away wins; 1 neutral loss
Q2 3-0 2H; 1N
Q3/4 - 5-0

Team 4
Q1 2-3 L= 1N, 17A; 42A / W = 4H; 27A
Q2 4-0
Q3/4 - 7-0

So I listed them in order of Net Rank. 11-16-18-21.

I would rank them in order:
18 - 21- 11 -16

11 = Stanford
16 - Arizona
18 - SHU
21 - Nova

Their Q1/Q2 records are:
Stanford 2-2
Arizona 2-5
SHU 7-4
Nova 6-3

How in God's name are Arizona and Stanford ahead of SHU and Nova? They both have ZERO Q1 wins and exactly 1 Q1/Q2 win away from home combined while SHU has 4 and Nova 2. What the heck is that? Stever, where are you? Help me out here...

[Hall2012]

https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats%20Library/NET%20Team%20Sheets%20-%20Jan.%2014,%202020.pdf

Ok, so put me in the camp that is thoroughly confused by the Net Rankings:

Blind Resume' time:

Team 1
Q1 0-2 2N; 4H
Q2 2-0 (1 N win v. 51)
Q3/Q4 12 - 0

Team 2
Q1 0-4 1A; 7H; 13A; 45A
Q2 2-1 (both wins at H; so 0 Q1 or Q2 wins A or N)
Q3/4 - 9-0

Team 3
Q1 4-4 1 home loss / 1 home win; 2 away losses / 3 away wins; 1 neutral loss
Q2 3-0 2H; 1N
Q3/4 - 5-0

Team 4
Q1 2-3 L= 1N, 17A; 42A / W = 4H; 27A
Q2 4-0
Q3/4 - 7-0

So I listed them in order of Net Rank. 11-16-18-21.

I would rank them in order:
18 - 21- 11 -16

11 = Stanford
16 - Arizona
18 - SHU
21 - Nova

Their Q1/Q2 records are:
Stanford 2-2
Arizona 2-5
SHU 7-4
Nova 6-3

How in God's name are Arizona and Stanford ahead of SHU and Nova? They both have ZERO Q1 wins and exactly 1 Q1/Q2 win away from home combined while SHU has 4 and Nova 2. What the heck is that? Stever, where are you? Help me out here...

Gumby my man, it's very simple. You need to account for NET's P5 coefficient!

[adoraz]

https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats%20Library/NET%20Team%20Sheets%20-%20Jan.%2014,%202020.pdf

Ok, so put me in the camp that is thoroughly confused by the Net Rankings:

Blind Resume' time:

Team 1
Q1 0-2 2N; 4H
Q2 2-0 (1 N win v. 51)
Q3/Q4 12 - 0

Team 2
Q1 0-4 1A; 7H; 13A; 45A
Q2 2-1 (both wins at H; so 0 Q1 or Q2 wins A or N)
Q3/4 - 9-0

Team 3
Q1 4-4 1 home loss / 1 home win; 2 away losses / 3 away wins; 1 neutral loss
Q2 3-0 2H; 1N
Q3/4 - 5-0

Team 4
Q1 2-3 L= 1N, 17A; 42A / W = 4H; 27A
Q2 4-0
Q3/4 - 7-0

So I listed them in order of Net Rank. 11-16-18-21.

I would rank them in order:
18 - 21- 11 -16

11 = Stanford
16 - Arizona
18 - SHU
21 - Nova

Their Q1/Q2 records are:
Stanford 2-2
Arizona 2-5
SHU 7-4
Nova 6-3

How in God's name are Arizona and Stanford ahead of SHU and Nova? They both have ZERO Q1 wins and exactly 1 Q1/Q2 win away from home combined while SHU has 4 and Nova 2. What the heck is that? Stever, where are you? Help me out here...

I picked Hall followed by Nova as well. These Q1 games will be a major factor for the bracket itself. For instance, St. John's last year had a NET of #73 but a great Q1 record (5-2 I think) so we made it despite an extremely mediocre NET (worst at large team in history, including RPI from prior years). The Big East as a whole will benefit.

[stever20]

https://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats%20Library/NET%20Team%20Sheets%20-%20Jan.%2014,%202020.pdf

Ok, so put me in the camp that is thoroughly confused by the Net Rankings:

Blind Resume' time:

Team 1
Q1 0-2 2N; 4H
Q2 2-0 (1 N win v. 51)
Q3/Q4 12 - 0

Team 2
Q1 0-4 1A; 7H; 13A; 45A
Q2 2-1 (both wins at H; so 0 Q1 or Q2 wins A or N)
Q3/4 - 9-0

Team 3
Q1 4-4 1 home loss / 1 home win; 2 away losses / 3 away wins; 1 neutral loss
Q2 3-0 2H; 1N
Q3/4 - 5-0

Team 4
Q1 2-3 L= 1N, 17A; 42A / W = 4H; 27A
Q2 4-0
Q3/4 - 7-0

So I listed them in order of Net Rank. 11-16-18-21.

I would rank them in order:
18 - 21- 11 -16

11 = Stanford
16 - Arizona
18 - SHU
21 - Nova

Their Q1/Q2 records are:
Stanford 2-2
Arizona 2-5
SHU 7-4
Nova 6-3

How in God's name are Arizona and Stanford ahead of SHU and Nova? They both have ZERO Q1 wins and exactly 1 Q1/Q2 win away from home combined while SHU has 4 and Nova 2. What the heck is that? Stever, where are you? Help me out here...

What are the pointspreads? Like it or not, your MOV matters. Part of Nova's problems is that they have 3 losses, and all 3 are by 9 points or more. Seton Hall 2 10 point losses hurt. Arizona/Stanford both with only 1 10 point loss...

and then-
Stanford 3 wins by less than 10 out of 14
Arizona 3 wins by less than 10 out of 11
SH 3 wins by less than 10 out of 12
Nova 6 wins by less than 10 out of 13

A game like last night where you're playing #72 team at home and win by 1 point(remember all OT games count as a 1 point win). That hurts.

[kayako]

How in God's name are Arizona and Stanford ahead of SHU and Nova? They both have ZERO Q1 wins and exactly 1 Q1/Q2 win away from home combined while SHU has 4 and Nova 2. What the heck is that? Stever, where are you? Help me out here...

Margin of victory...

[stever20]

I picked Hall followed by Nova as well. These Q1 games will be a major factor for the bracket itself. For instance, St. John's last year had a NET of #73 but a great Q1 record (5-2 I think) so we made it despite an extremely mediocre NET (worst at large team in history, including RPI from prior years). The Big East as a whole will benefit.

I think the key for the Big East will be can a team like Creighton remain in the top 30, and can the teams at the lower half of the conference remain in the top 75 to get all those games as Q1. On the flip of that can a team like Marquette jump up 12 spots to get into the top 30 and even can Providence jump 16 to get into the top 75.

I also wonder if the NET will be used closer this season. where a team like St John's last year doesn't make it.

[GumbyDamnit!]

How in God's name are Arizona and Stanford ahead of SHU and Nova? They both have ZERO Q1 wins and exactly 1 Q1/Q2 win away from home combined while SHU has 4 and Nova 2. What the heck is that? Stever, where are you? Help me out here...

Margin of victory...

Kayako, my bad. You hit the nail on the head. MOV. Of course! I totally forgot that Stanford lost to Kansas by only 16 on their home court while Nova... Oh wait...never mind. In their defense they did beat a Q2 team on a neutral court. #51 Oklahoma. And they thrashed #235 San Diego by 3 on a neutral court.

And Arizona did only lose to Oregon St. by 17 and did take #152 Pepperdine by a convincing 2 on a neutral court.

Conversely, Nova actually has a couple Q1 wins but did only beat 6 of the 7 Q3/Q4 opponents by the max 10 pt spread. And that other one was by 8. So that must be it.

[GumbyDamnit!]

What are the pointspreads? Like it or not, your MOV matters. Part of Nova's problems is that they have 3 losses, and all 3 are by 9 points or more. Seton Hall 2 10 point losses hurt. Arizona/Stanford both with only 1 10 point loss...

and then-
Stanford 3 wins by less than 10 out of 14
Arizona 3 wins by less than 10 out of 11
SH 3 wins by less than 10 out of 12
Nova 6 wins by less than 10 out of 13

A game like last night where you're playing #72 team at home and win by 1 point(remember all OT games count as a 1 point win). That hurts.

If your argument is truly what the NET numbers support then I give up... Are you really telling me that since Nova and SHU decided to have a more difficult schedule then say Stanford, and thus had less 10 pt MOV's, then they are penalized? SHU HAS PLAYED 6 MORE Q1 AND 7 MORE Q1/Q2 GAMES THAN STANFORD. Of course they are going to have less net 10+ pt MOV's. It is absolutely amazing that any formula would look at a team with 0 Q1 wins and a Q2 win on a neutral court vs. the #51 team, and conclude that they have proven that they are the 11th best team in the country. In effect they are a top 3 seed.

Please God put us in that region as the 6 seed.