Bracketology

[kayako]

I share your concerns. While we have a matchup of 2 desperate teams, my confidence in Marquette to eventually right its ship is higher.

The game that may have the highest bracketology implication is SJU@Providence. Is SJU a serious at-large candidate? Or is Providence dead set on taking as many teams down with them as possible?

[kayako]

Bracketville didn't do a bracket but did a seed list-
Butler 4
Villanova 13
Seton Hall 16
Creighton 21
Marquette 30
Xavier 38
Georgetown 44(4th team in)
St John's 46(2nd team in)
DePaul 73(5th team out)
Providence 93

1/14 Update:

1 Butler
4 Nova
4 Seton Hall
6 Creighton
8 Marquette
10 Xavier
11 Georgetown
12 SJU
DePaul 5th out

[adoraz]

I really doubt St. John's will make the Tournament, regardless of whether we beat Providence. We're going to be underdogs in at least 75% of Big East games (so far have only been favored in 1/5- against DePaul at home). If Vegas ran a simulation we'd probably have less than a 1% chance at making it. In order to dance we'd need to play significantly better than the lines, or we'd need to get extremely lucky and win all the 50/50 games (such as the one we lost against Butler).

It was nice beating WVU and Arizona in the closing seconds to help out the conference, and I still fully expect us to pull off a couple more upsets, but realistically speaking the NCAAT won't happen. The NIT is very possible, but even that will be tough as we'll probably only be favored in 3 or 4 more games the rest of the way.

I'm thinking we'll go 5-13. I also don't expect DePaul or Providence to make it. At this point I'm expecting 6 teams to make the Dance. In order they'll be:
#1 Butler (2 seed)
#2 Seton Hall (3 seed)
#3 Villanova (4 seed)
#4 Creighton (7 seed)
#5 Marquette (9 seed)
#6 Georgetown OR Xavier (10 seed)

The top few teams (Butler, Seton Hall, Villanova) are putting together REALLY good resumes and will get high seeds in the Tournament. Overall it'll end up being a very successful year for the conference.

[kayako]

I'm thinking we'll go 5-13. I also don't expect DePaul or Providence to make it. At this point I'm expecting 6 teams to make the Dance. In order they'll be:
#1 Butler (2 seed)
#2 Seton Hall (3 seed)
#3 Villanova (4 seed)
#4 Creighton (7 seed)
#5 Marquette (9 seed)
#6 Georgetown OR Xavier (10 seed)

The top few teams (Butler, Seton Hall, Villanova) are putting together REALLY good resumes and will get high seeds in the Tournament. Overall it'll end up being a very successful year for the conference.

Butler, Seton Hall, Nova, and Providence has 1 loss combined between them to the other 6 teams. That's highly unlikely to continue and the picture will look less bleak for the bottom 6. We'll get a clearer picture after a few more games.

[stever20]

I really doubt St. John's will make the Tournament, regardless of whether we beat Providence. We're going to be underdogs in at least 75% of Big East games (so far have only been favored in 1/5- against DePaul at home). If Vegas ran a simulation we'd probably have less than a 1% chance at making it. In order to dance we'd need to play significantly better than the lines, or we'd need to get extremely lucky and win all the 50/50 games (such as the one we lost against Butler).

It was nice beating WVU and Arizona in the closing seconds to help out the conference, and I still fully expect us to pull off a couple more upsets, but realistically speaking the NCAAT won't happen. The NIT is very possible, but even that will be tough as we'll probably only be favored in 3 or 4 more games the rest of the way.

I'm thinking we'll go 5-13. I also don't expect DePaul or Providence to make it. At this point I'm expecting 6 teams to make the Dance. In order they'll be:
#1 Butler (2 seed)
#2 Seton Hall (3 seed)
#3 Villanova (4 seed)
#4 Creighton (7 seed)
#5 Marquette (9 seed)
#6 Georgetown OR Xavier (10 seed)

The top few teams (Butler, Seton Hall, Villanova) are putting together REALLY good resumes and will get high seeds in the Tournament. Overall it'll end up being a very successful year for the conference.

If St John's goes 5-13, they aren't making the NIT. 16-15 just doesn't get you in the NIT any longer. Probably need 7 conference wins to just make the NIT quite frankly.

[stever20]

I'm thinking we'll go 5-13. I also don't expect DePaul or Providence to make it. At this point I'm expecting 6 teams to make the Dance. In order they'll be:
#1 Butler (2 seed)
#2 Seton Hall (3 seed)
#3 Villanova (4 seed)
#4 Creighton (7 seed)
#5 Marquette (9 seed)
#6 Georgetown OR Xavier (10 seed)

The top few teams (Butler, Seton Hall, Villanova) are putting together REALLY good resumes and will get high seeds in the Tournament. Overall it'll end up being a very successful year for the conference.

Butler, Seton Hall, Nova, and Providence has 1 loss combined between them to the other 6 teams. That's highly unlikely to continue and the picture will look less bleak for the bottom 6. We'll get a clearer picture after a few more games.

Outside of Providence, I don't see why that wouldn't continue.

[adoraz]

I'm thinking we'll go 5-13. I also don't expect DePaul or Providence to make it. At this point I'm expecting 6 teams to make the Dance. In order they'll be:
#1 Butler (2 seed)
#2 Seton Hall (3 seed)
#3 Villanova (4 seed)
#4 Creighton (7 seed)
#5 Marquette (9 seed)
#6 Georgetown OR Xavier (10 seed)

The top few teams (Butler, Seton Hall, Villanova) are putting together REALLY good resumes and will get high seeds in the Tournament. Overall it'll end up being a very successful year for the conference.

Butler, Seton Hall, Nova, and Providence has 1 loss combined between them to the other 6 teams. That's highly unlikely to continue and the picture will look less bleak for the bottom 6. We'll get a clearer picture after a few more games.

I agree it's unsustainable, but if it did sustain then only 5 teams would make the Dance (including Providence). 5/10 are 1-3 or worse in conference. What I expect to happen is Providence won't continue playing this well and won't make it, so then we'd be down to 4 teams. Then Marquette and one of Georgetown/Xavier will get to at least 8/9 wins and we'll get 6 teams into the Tournament.

Basically we still could get anywhere from 4-9 teams in. I think 6 is most likely, followed by 7, 5, 8, 4, 9.

[stever20]

I'm thinking we'll go 5-13. I also don't expect DePaul or Providence to make it. At this point I'm expecting 6 teams to make the Dance. In order they'll be:
#1 Butler (2 seed)
#2 Seton Hall (3 seed)
#3 Villanova (4 seed)
#4 Creighton (7 seed)
#5 Marquette (9 seed)
#6 Georgetown OR Xavier (10 seed)

The top few teams (Butler, Seton Hall, Villanova) are putting together REALLY good resumes and will get high seeds in the Tournament. Overall it'll end up being a very successful year for the conference.

Butler, Seton Hall, Nova, and Providence has 1 loss combined between them to the other 6 teams. That's highly unlikely to continue and the picture will look less bleak for the bottom 6. We'll get a clearer picture after a few more games.

I agree it's unsustainable, but if it did sustain then only 5 teams would make the Dance (including Providence). 5/10 are 1-3 or worse in conference. What I expect to happen is Providence won't continue playing this well and won't make it, so then we'd be down to 4 teams. Then Marquette and one of Georgetown/Xavier will get to at least 8/9 wins and we'll get 6 teams in the Tournament.

Basically we still could get anywhere from 4-9 teams in. I think 6 is most likely, followed by 7, 5, 8, 4, 9.

I don't think there is a remotely possible scenario where only 4 teams would get in....

[adoraz]

I really doubt St. John's will make the Tournament, regardless of whether we beat Providence. We're going to be underdogs in at least 75% of Big East games (so far have only been favored in 1/5- against DePaul at home). If Vegas ran a simulation we'd probably have less than a 1% chance at making it. In order to dance we'd need to play significantly better than the lines, or we'd need to get extremely lucky and win all the 50/50 games (such as the one we lost against Butler).

It was nice beating WVU and Arizona in the closing seconds to help out the conference, and I still fully expect us to pull off a couple more upsets, but realistically speaking the NCAAT won't happen. The NIT is very possible, but even that will be tough as we'll probably only be favored in 3 or 4 more games the rest of the way.

I'm thinking we'll go 5-13. I also don't expect DePaul or Providence to make it. At this point I'm expecting 6 teams to make the Dance. In order they'll be:
#1 Butler (2 seed)
#2 Seton Hall (3 seed)
#3 Villanova (4 seed)
#4 Creighton (7 seed)
#5 Marquette (9 seed)
#6 Georgetown OR Xavier (10 seed)

The top few teams (Butler, Seton Hall, Villanova) are putting together REALLY good resumes and will get high seeds in the Tournament. Overall it'll end up being a very successful year for the conference.

If St John's goes 5-13, they aren't making the NIT. 16-15 just doesn't get you in the NIT any longer. Probably need 7 conference wins to just make the NIT quite frankly.

Seriously, that's your takeaway from my post? I never said or implied that 5-13 would get the Johnnies into the NIT. In fact, I said it'll be tough for us to make the NIT. No need to troll when I'm simply giving my thoughts on who will make the Dance.

[adoraz]

I agree it's unsustainable, but if it did sustain then only 5 teams would make the Dance (including Providence). 5/10 are 1-3 or worse in conference. What I expect to happen is Providence won't continue playing this well and won't make it, so then we'd be down to 4 teams. Then Marquette and one of Georgetown/Xavier will get to at least 8/9 wins and we'll get 6 teams in the Tournament.

Basically we still could get anywhere from 4-9 teams in. I think 6 is most likely, followed by 7, 5, 8, 4, 9.

I don't think there is a remotely possible scenario where only 4 teams would get in....

I don't either, which is why I put 4 as the second to least likely scenario... 4 and 9 (least likely) have probably a less than 1% chance at happening.

Stop nitpicking, please, otherwise I'll stop responding to your posts.