by xusandy » Sat Oct 05, 2019 12:30 pm
Fearless Predictions:
(1) The almighty NCAA will eventually cave in on this issue, probably using some total BS piece of logic to redefine "pay" as not including having players acquire some money when their images, etc. are used by media outlets or their own institutions to generate even more money. The alternative for the NCAA will be to lose all California schools and some of those schools' league members as well (the entire Pac 12?, the West Coast Conference?, other schools or entire leagues if more states adopt such a law.) The NCAA would also have to compete with whatever rival organizations arise to manage alternate national championships for schools that drop out of the NCAA. To refuse to cave in might even kill the NCAA's presence in D-1 athletics altogether.
(2) When the dust settles, a ton of D-1 athletes in major sports will have agents while they are still in college, peddling their images and building their "brands." We'll all see local college players on Wheaties boxes, in ads on local TV, etc., etc.
(3) The "sports agent industry" will expand significantly, as agents will have a whole new source of income, with LOTS of potential new clients to chase, and this will just increase the $$$ opportunities for players.
(4) The biggest winners in all this will eventually be the the schools located in the biggest media markets, since the best players in the major sports will want to enroll where they can make the most money while still in college (congrats Depaul, sorry Creighton.) ("Gee Mom, I love Coach Cool and School Wow, but I guess I need to go to Big City U, where I can potentially make a lot more $$$.")
(5) Finally, we'll see a major re-alignment of major conferences, as the schools with the best players (those in major media markets) will want to affiliate with each other for financial reasons. Virginia Tech, Penn State, Clemson, Alabama, etc. just won't be able to attract top players any more. And if a kid blossoms at a school in a small media market, the temptation to transfer to Big City U will be huge. I'll give it less than 10 years before this happens, and the number of truly competitive programs in football, basketball, and even baseball starts to dwindle significantly.
Though I agree that players deserve a piece of the huge profits that D-1 schools make off their presence on campus, I really don't like that MONEY is becoming (has already become?) the main driver of college sports, and in particular I hate it that for too many universities, the finances of the football program are already way more important than academic quality, getting research grants, or instilling strong citizenship values in young people. California is doing the right thing, but I see a lot of downside in the future.