by GoldenWarrior11 » Tue Jan 29, 2019 2:25 pm
Judging from a number of their respective personalities, I think ESPN - in hindsight - really regrets letting go of the Big East property and content. It obviously made smart decisions in moving Syracuse and Pittsburgh over to the ACC (and getting Notre Dame and Louisville in the process), but I do not think that they ever imagined that the Big East would have remained a power basketball conference like they have (and been incredibly successful in the process). The Big East was their baby, and they essentially eliminated it. Watching Fox get to televise the BET, in front of a sold-out MSG crowd regularly, must really sting the NE contingent within the network. Similarly, I believe that they thought the ACC would just continue the same markets and fan interest from the Northern schools; unfortunately, the attempts at duplicating the BET at Barclays (and continued resistance from the Tobacco Road schools) have made those attempts fruitless.
One of the biggest reasons I think the BE will be getting a bump in its next TV deal, other than inevitable expansion, is the fact that there will be a market for its services - specifically by ESPN. It offers (cheaper) costs for high-level value that is not a true P5 conference, has a strong anchor in the Northeast, has great fan support, and has a built-in relationship with the power conferences. Don't get me wrong, I love Fox - and I think their marketing and branding of our conference has been phenomenal. However, it certainly never hurts to be pursued.
I've written on the topic a number of times, but I do not think the AAC will be getting (what some predict) $10-$12 million per year per school. You can reference ratings, on-field results, budgets, etc., but the reality is that the comes a strong inflation of ratings when on ESPN. I always get confused when people reference the ratings on FS1 compared to ESPN; those will never be close (at least not in near-term), and if one were to swap events on those two channels, there would be a minor change in viewership. The AAC is artificially inflating its athletic budgets by heavily subsidizing their departments via unnatural streams (students, state, etc.) in order to keep up the spending with the P5. That is simply not sustainable, whether it is $1.7 million per year, $5 million per year or $10 million per year. This cycle has already widened the gap with the B1G and SEC earning $50 million to their $1.7 million annually, and the PAC, ACC and Big 12 are not far off. UCF and USF are #4 and #5 in their own state (UF/FSU/Miami); Houston and SMU are #6 and #7 (UT, A&M, TT, Baylor, TCU) in Texas; Cincinnati is behind Ohio State; Memphis is behind Tennessee; ECU is behind Tobacco Road. The hill is simply too great to ever level-off, and fan support/attendance at many of their respective programs is far too weak to ever be considered a "power conference". Most importantly, the AAC lacks a power program to drive up its value. If Texas/OU ever left the Big 12, the value of the remaining programs plummet; but they are each earning high payouts by being part of the status quo.
I think the $5-$6 million range is still in line with that ESPN will ultimately offer, and I do not see CBS, Fox or NBC making a play for the content. ESPN will not give the AAC a 500% increase in pay out of the goodness of its hearts. The AAC provides them with cheap content filler, and they will offer it as such.