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From the cool site we got last week from Edrick-
http://barttorvik.com/teamsheets.php
numbers are resume/predictive avg Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2 Villanova 2.3/1.7 2.0 8-3 7-0 8-1 4-0
8 Xavier 3/13.3 8.2 6-3 8-1 9-0 4-0
25 Seton Hall 26.3/27.3 26.8 4-7 4-1 7-2 6-0
28 Creighton 35.7/22.7 29.2 3-8 4-2 6-0 7-0
31 Butler 43/26.7 34.8 3-10 4-1 6-1 6-0
50 Marquette 49/47.7 48.3 4-7 4-3 4-2 6-0
54 Providence 42.7/67 54.8 3-8 5-1 7-0 4-3

It'll be interesting to see which set of teams that are extreme are favored more- Creighton and Butler whose predictive numbers are great but resume ranks suffer or Providence whose resume ranks are good, but predictive ranks just aren't that good. Providence would be pretty wise to win their game with Creighton I think- they have a lot of things that could really hurt them resume wise with only 3 Q1 wins but 3 q4 losses. The next team with 3 Q4 losses on the list- #115 New Mexico.

PC is the only school in the country to beat 2 projected # 1 seeds. The loss to Minnesota IMO shouldn't be considered a bad loss since Minnesota was ranked at the time. Not the same team today as they were in november

gosports1 wrote:PC is the only school in the country to beat 2 projected # 1 seeds. The loss to Minnesota IMO shouldn't be considered a bad loss since Minnesota was ranked at the time. Not the same team today as they were in november

PC has great wins and bad losses (UMASS and Depaul).

gosports1 wrote:PC is the only school in the country to beat 2 projected # 1 seeds. The loss to Minnesota IMO shouldn't be considered a bad loss since Minnesota was ranked at the time. Not the same team today as they were in november

Even w/o the Minnesota loss, there's only 6 teams in the top 100 with even 2 Q4 losses. The best one being Davidson.... Also, while yeah Minnesota was ranked at the time, Washington wasn't projected to be anywhere close to where they are. So intent IMO means a schedule with Minnesota, Rhode Island, and then everyone else- wasn't designed to really be all that great....

PC's a team that will be fascinating to watch come selection Sunday if they fall in the BET. They would be extremely bubbly- RPI of 47. With poor advanced metrics. I think in a year or 2, when they do more and more metrics, they wouldn't have a chance.

gosports1 wrote:PC is the only school in the country to beat 2 projected # 1 seeds. The loss to Minnesota IMO shouldn't be considered a bad loss since Minnesota was ranked at the time. Not the same team today as they were in november

PC is the only team in the top 125 with 3 Q4 losses....

PC's Q1 is same as Creighton and its Q2 is better than Creighton. Without the 4-3 Q4 record, they would be in great shape. I think Creighton needs this win as much as PC, IMO. In fact, Creighton might need to reach the finals to avoid 8-9 seed after losing to Marquette. Unfortunately, given our inconsistency away from home this year, I'm not sure I believe we have two good games in us. Going to need PC and whoever we play in the semi's if we beat PC have off-shooting nights against us.

The tourney should be really Interestinng this year. I think we’re going to see a TON of upsets in the first two rounds. In talent alone teams like Duke, MSU, UK and Arizona should be juggernauts but each have serious flaws. Even look at the two BE #1 seeds. If Nova doesn’t shoot the 3 at a 35% or higher they could be in serious trouble. X? Defense is suspect IMO and if they don’t get to the line they are susceptible. It would not be a shocking result for both to get knocked off in the 2nd round (but man that would be disappointing). Even VA...they beat teams 62-57. Two or three possession games often come down to a fortunate bounce or a call or two.

My point... all BE tourney teams are in play. 8/9 seed is not an ideal spot b/c you’ll get a 1 in R32 but is there really a huge difference between seeing Kansas in R32 or a 4 seed like Arizona or Texas Tech? It all comes down to which you match up better with. I’d much rather face X (a 1 seed) in R32 than Butler (a 9 seed) because our style of play works better vs X. . So worrying about seed position is less important than matchups and styles of play.

I’m not sure a Marq or a Butler can win 6 in a row as of today but they really only have to win one at a time.

cu blujs wrote:PC's Q1 is same as Creighton and its Q2 is better than Creighton. Without the 4-3 Q4 record, they would be in great shape. I think Creighton needs this win as much as PC, IMO. In fact, Creighton might need to reach the finals to avoid 8-9 seed after losing to Marquette. Unfortunately, given our inconsistency away from home this year, I'm not sure I believe we have two good games in us. Going to need PC and whoever we play in the semi's if we beat PC have off-shooting nights against us.

Not true, but if that's your opinion...okay. Many here are playing the what if game. Okay.

Need is a subjective issue. I need a few billion to build a string of desalination plants and coffee shops. I need to quit smoking. I need JLo, Halle Berry, & Oprah to fall madly in love with me. I need an Aston Martin DB9. (Got a lot of needs)
Creighton is in the dance. Prov "needs" to win v the Jays and maybe 1 other. I will be happy with whatever seed we get and play to win.

IMO, too much is being made of bad losses here. Big wins are a sign of accomplishment andof a team’s ability to pull off an upset, both important factors in assessing how a team’s selection can strengthen the tournament field.

OTOH, losses can be a reflection luck or of circumstances. In the case of PC, for example, they loss to Minnesota occurred when the Gophers were a ranked team with a hot hand and the road loss to UMass came during exam week, a notorious time for upsets. Against DePaul, the Friars were missing Jalen Lindsey, a top defender and their best 3-point shooter. Providence shot 2 for 19 from 3 in that game. The committee tends to look beyond just the numbers as they evaluate how a team has performed over the course of a full season.

I think that both Creighton and Providence are in the tournament regardless of the outcome of their game at MSG. At this point they’re playing for seeding.