stever20 wrote:MullinMayhem wrote:Stever, if we go 15-15 we make the NIT I would think. Two top 4 wins is a big deal and you aren't factoring that at all.
I posted this earlier but I don't know what happened.....
It would really hinge for you guys on the BET. 15-16 would be a big problem I think- losing 1st round of the BET.
Also, with 12 conferences who are going to be sending only 1 team to the NCAA tourney being right now within 1 game of each other for 1st place, going to see a ton of NIT bid thieves this year probably. That's going to limit the number of bids. Combine that with the teams that just miss the NCAA tourney- St John's won't be close to that. Could be realistically about 8-12 spots that St John's has a chance at.
Strongly disagree. You're looking at basically one metric- record, while ignoring the others. They can finish below .500 and make the NIT.
Keep in mind all the positives:
*Will finish with a top 5 SOS
*Have some huge wins
*Strong finish (assuming finishing 15-16 despite an 11 game losing streak)
*Ponds was out or injured during the losing streak
*RPI would be somewhere in the 70s
I highly doubt 2018 will be a super abnormal year for bid thieves. Here's a look at the 2017 NIT teams and their RPI (bold are auto bid so ignore those):
http://www.bracketmatrix.com/nit.html8/10 teams with RPI in the 60s made it (not sure if the other 2 teams made the NCAA)
7/10 teams with RPI in the 70s made it (one autobid)
4/10 teams with RPI in the 80s made it
#99 Colorado and #106 Georgia Tech also made it
So, since St. John's would have a top 5 SOS, at least 2 massive wins, an RPI in the 70s, etc.... how could you say they wouldn't make it? You always focus way too much on record.
If St. John's doesn't make the NIT at this point, that'll be a let down. Fortunate they've been able to turn the season around like this.
I still hope to sneak onto the *real* bubble. If we can somehow win 4-5 more games and sneak into the bubble conversation, I like our chances. Would make for a great story. I don't think a top 50 RPI is critical for the team given the rest of the resume.
One game at a time though. Just glad to be playing meaningful ball still.