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I think there is too much looking at this in a bubble (no pun intended). Most of the comments seem to presume that all other teams around Butler are going to stay static in the last month of the season and tournament time. Other teams are going to lose games - such as Mississippi State 18-7 going in getting beat by a 10-16 Vanderbilt team last night. MSU was probably a bubble team at best- but the point is other teams are going to have dangerous road games and are going to lose some of those over the next several weeks as well. Butler will be fine if it wins the games it should (except Creighton, you can drop the Creighton game also and maybe pick up a road win at St. John's or Seton Hall to balance that out )

cu blujs wrote:I think there is too much looking at this in a bubble (no pun intended). Most of the comments seem to presume that all other teams around Butler are going to stay static in the last month of the season and tournament time. Other teams are going to lose games - such as Mississippi State 18-7 going in getting beat by a 10-16 Vanderbilt team last night. MSU was probably a bubble team at best- but the point is other teams are going to have dangerous road games and are going to lose some of those over the next several weeks as well. Butler will be fine if it wins the games it should (except Creighton, you can drop the Creighton game also and maybe pick up a road win at St. John's or Seton Hall to balance that out )

Miss St wasn't even really in the equation- on bracket matrix they were like the 7th team out. The problem for Butler is shown just last night by Providence. Providence probably in a day or 2 will have passed Butler in the bracket matrix. I think the thing that we're seeing this season is there are a lot more teams that are close to the bubble this year than in a normal year. Someone is going to do enough to make it where if you don't win you won't get in. Some years- that's just not the case.

Butler has 4 games left and 3 of the 4 are tier 1 games. The only one that isn't- home game with Providence. Butler IMO has got to win definitely one of these next 2 or they would go into the final 2 road games needing bare minimum 1 to have any chance.

stever20 wrote:

cu blujs wrote:I think there is too much looking at this in a bubble (no pun intended). Most of the comments seem to presume that all other teams around Butler are going to stay static in the last month of the season and tournament time. Other teams are going to lose games - such as Mississippi State 18-7 going in getting beat by a 10-16 Vanderbilt team last night. MSU was probably a bubble team at best- but the point is other teams are going to have dangerous road games and are going to lose some of those over the next several weeks as well. Butler will be fine if it wins the games it should (except Creighton, you can drop the Creighton game also and maybe pick up a road win at St. John's or Seton Hall to balance that out )

Miss St wasn't even really in the equation- on bracket matrix they were like the 7th team out. The problem for Butler is shown just last night by Providence. Providence probably in a day or 2 will have passed Butler in the bracket matrix. I think the thing that we're seeing this season is there are a lot more teams that are close to the bubble this year than in a normal year. Someone is going to do enough to make it where if you don't win you won't get in. Some years- that's just not the case.

Butler has 4 games left and 3 of the 4 are tier 1 games. The only one that isn't- home game with Providence. Butler IMO has got to win definitely one of these next 2 or they would go into the final 2 road games needing bare minimum 1 to have any chance.

I don’t know about “any chance”, but barring an upset Butler is probably in if they win a game in the BET and on the wrong side of the bubble if they lose in the first round at MSG.

stever20 wrote:

cu blujs wrote:I think there is too much looking at this in a bubble (no pun intended). Most of the comments seem to presume that all other teams around Butler are going to stay static in the last month of the season and tournament time. Other teams are going to lose games - such as Mississippi State 18-7 going in getting beat by a 10-16 Vanderbilt team last night. MSU was probably a bubble team at best- but the point is other teams are going to have dangerous road games and are going to lose some of those over the next several weeks as well. Butler will be fine if it wins the games it should (except Creighton, you can drop the Creighton game also and maybe pick up a road win at St. John's or Seton Hall to balance that out )

Miss St wasn't even really in the equation- on bracket matrix they were like the 7th team out. The problem for Butler is shown just last night by Providence. Providence probably in a day or 2 will have passed Butler in the bracket matrix. I think the thing that we're seeing this season is there are a lot more teams that are close to the bubble this year than in a normal year. Someone is going to do enough to make it where if you don't win you won't get in. Some years- that's just not the case.

Butler has 4 games left and 3 of the 4 are tier 1 games. The only one that isn't- home game with Providence. Butler IMO has got to win definitely one of these next 2 or they would go into the final 2 road games needing bare minimum 1 to have any chance.

The point that apparently eluded you being that other teams that might rise and knock Butler out also have to play out their season and are likely to lose more games. You can't say Butler has a bare minimum to have any chance, because in order for them to drop out, someone currently below them has to win their way in. They may or may not happen.

If Butler goes 1-3 rest of the way, they're 18-13 with a 56 RPI. I think they would need a BET win to get in like you said. So 2 wins between now and seletion Sunday and they should be safe.

And like I said- even if Butler gets in, with the 3 straight losses to include the bad one vs Georgetown- they've taken their RPI from 25 to 43 in 10 days. Even if they win out the rest of the way, their RPI would be 26.

cu blujs wrote:

stever20 wrote:

cu blujs wrote:I think there is too much looking at this in a bubble (no pun intended). Most of the comments seem to presume that all other teams around Butler are going to stay static in the last month of the season and tournament time. Other teams are going to lose games - such as Mississippi State 18-7 going in getting beat by a 10-16 Vanderbilt team last night. MSU was probably a bubble team at best- but the point is other teams are going to have dangerous road games and are going to lose some of those over the next several weeks as well. Butler will be fine if it wins the games it should (except Creighton, you can drop the Creighton game also and maybe pick up a road win at St. John's or Seton Hall to balance that out )

Miss St wasn't even really in the equation- on bracket matrix they were like the 7th team out. The problem for Butler is shown just last night by Providence. Providence probably in a day or 2 will have passed Butler in the bracket matrix. I think the thing that we're seeing this season is there are a lot more teams that are close to the bubble this year than in a normal year. Someone is going to do enough to make it where if you don't win you won't get in. Some years- that's just not the case.

Butler has 4 games left and 3 of the 4 are tier 1 games. The only one that isn't- home game with Providence. Butler IMO has got to win definitely one of these next 2 or they would go into the final 2 road games needing bare minimum 1 to have any chance.

The point that apparently eluded you being that other teams that might rise and knock Butler out also have to play out their season and are likely to lose more games. You can't say Butler has a bare minimum to have any chance, because in order for them to drop out, someone currently below them has to win their way in. They may or may not happen.

You can say that because in the 68 team era, no 17 win team has ever made the tourney at large. Only Oklahoma St in 2015 made the tourney with 18 wins at large. the committee has not shown any willingness to take teams in the tourney that don't have at least 19 wins. Until they change the precident you have to seriously consider that.

And while yes, teams below Butler might lose some games, there will be enough that win at least some games, and those would catapult them over Butler.

Bill Marsh wrote:

stever20 wrote:

cu blujs wrote:I think there is too much looking at this in a bubble (no pun intended). Most of the comments seem to presume that all other teams around Butler are going to stay static in the last month of the season and tournament time. Other teams are going to lose games - such as Mississippi State 18-7 going in getting beat by a 10-16 Vanderbilt team last night. MSU was probably a bubble team at best- but the point is other teams are going to have dangerous road games and are going to lose some of those over the next several weeks as well. Butler will be fine if it wins the games it should (except Creighton, you can drop the Creighton game also and maybe pick up a road win at St. John's or Seton Hall to balance that out )

Miss St wasn't even really in the equation- on bracket matrix they were like the 7th team out. The problem for Butler is shown just last night by Providence. Providence probably in a day or 2 will have passed Butler in the bracket matrix. I think the thing that we're seeing this season is there are a lot more teams that are close to the bubble this year than in a normal year. Someone is going to do enough to make it where if you don't win you won't get in. Some years- that's just not the case.

Butler has 4 games left and 3 of the 4 are tier 1 games. The only one that isn't- home game with Providence. Butler IMO has got to win definitely one of these next 2 or they would go into the final 2 road games needing bare minimum 1 to have any chance.

I don’t know about “any chance”, but barring an upset Butler is probably in if they win a game in the BET and on the wrong side of the bubble if they lose in the first round at MSG.

It's always refreshing to see the Voice of reason return to this board this time of year.