Big East Conference Realignment v2018

[stever20]

I think the interesting thing to watch with the TV deal is what happens after next year. The CBS sub-licensing contract ends after next season. Does Fox keep everything at that point, do they resell to CBS, or does ESPN get involved? The TV deal will be interesting for sure. Looking at the next cycle- Big Ten's deal ends after the 22-23 year, Pac 12 after the 23-24 year, and Big East and Big 12 end after the 24-25 year. Will Big 12 be plucked apart between the Big Ten and Pac 12? Will Fox have gotten more basketball as a result? Will Fox get involved with the AAC? Things to watch out for.

As far as Saint Louis- will Ford stay at SLU if they do catch lightning in a bottle, or will he get plucked like every other A10 coach does. You seriously have to wonder.

[stever20]

I wouldn't worry about the ACC or B1G permanently infringing on MSG/NYC. Both conferences added local programs (Rutgers/Syracuse) in order to get a piece of the NY pie, not the entire serving of it. The B1G is still very much Midwestern-based, which is why its upcoming basketball tournaments are returning to the Chicago/Indianapolis rotation and why its B1G Championship is still in Indianapolis. I would not be shocked to see their football championship played on rotation basis at the new U.S. Bank Stadium (since it is also indoors). With regards to the ACC, it is still driven and led by its Tobacco Road contingent (UNC/Duke/NCST/WF). They held their tournament at Barclays as a welcome favor to the Syracuse/Pitt/ND/UL grouping, attempting to show them that the ACC can be as good - and even better - than the old Big East. Despite their conference's success, it still lacks the same star appeal and perception of the original Big East. Their tournament venues are once again returning to North Carolina - where it belongs.

I am confident that our next TV contract, without any new added members, would slightly go up (possibly to $5-$6 million per team per year) at a shorter duration (8-10 years). The reality is that the Big East still carries - even in reorganization - an elite name in men's basketball. It's conference tournament is one of the biggest and best sporting events in the world's best city over several days. Every single program in the conference is devoted and driven towards the top level of college men's basketball. By the time our next deal is up for renegotiation, programs like Georgetown/St. Johns/DePaul will have (hopefully) made on-court improvements and appearances/runs in the NCAA Tournament. If that were to occur, especially in our Chicago/New York City/Washington D.C. market, the increase to our already strong brand and national perception would only increase.

Having said that, I am also confident that Fox will want us to add inventory and content in order to get more immediate value for their spending. While ratings have not directly competed with ESPN (which was not a realistic immediate goal, but rather a long-term one), the ratings have steadily improved and increased each and every season. If they had to big one potential and available program to make a run at in order to increase viewership, it would absolutely and 100% be UConn. This does not take into account what they would obviously do with football, but that is another topic entirely.

The more realistic targets are Saint Louis and Dayton. While Dayton is currently in the midst of a rebuild, Saint Louis and Travis Ford have quietly assembled several very strong and high-ranked recruiting classes. They very much are projected to be a top-team in the A-10 next year. If they can catch lightning in a bottle, they immediately become a strong target for #11 - which would keep the round-robin and add a very strong media market with a like-minded institution.

Longer-term, do not immediately discount Loyola. If DePaul Men's Basketball continues to struggle - which is a very long-term problem for them - and Loyola continues to steal the hearts and eyes of not-only Chicago and the whole nation, then the decision to add another program in Chicago becomes very interesting. Loyola has higher-ranked ranked academics, more students, more alumni - and recently - a much more successful men's basketball program. They are also recruiting Chicago much better than DePaul. The old Big East kicked out Temple Football for its non-competitiveness, attendance, and its inability to compete in the conference for similar standings/performance. It would be hard not to wonder - if DePaul leadership remains committed to keeping tenured administrators - if the same discussions wouldn't be brought up at some point again.

Very interesting points. A couple of thoughts.

TV contracts are often for the purpose of obtaining a single event regardless of how the week to week ratings are. As long as the Big East tournament gets good ratings, the conference will be a good property.

For its first 30 years or so, the NIT was a major sporting event and a big draw in NYC. Part of Dave Gavitt’s genius was to see that and to realize that as the NIT declined, it could be replaced in the traditions of NYC college basketball fans with a conference tournament featuring the same kinds of teams that historically competed in the NIT.

As for kicking out DePaul, it’s not happening, the status of Temple is not comparable. Temple was an associate member for one sport with a conditional agreement that stipulated a renewal. DePaul is a full member for all sports with all of the rights and privileges of any full member. Depending on the provisions of the by-laws, such members can only be terminated for cause.

If the Big East wanted to add Loyola, they would have to decide to make Chicago a 2-member town as they did with metro NYC. I don’y Know that the Chicago population can justify that. Does Loyola really have more students and alumni? I always thought that DePaul was the bigger school.

The BET really hasn't gotten good ratings though. The title game was I believe #10 in all title games this year. The BET has really struggled since leaving ESPN and losing it's plum time spot primetime Saturday night. There's a reason why the #1 college basketball game of the year viewer wise was the ACC Championship.

[kayako]

especially among alums of other Catholic colleges whose alma maters haven’t been so fortunate. Given that the Catholic college circuit is an incestuous affair, many non-BE Catholic college alums have family members who are. The Big East continues to fill that void in many of its cities.

That's an interesting angle, but I guess it's a factor looking at BYU and LDS people.

[kayako]

I always thought that DePaul was the bigger school.

I've always thought that DePaul is the largest catholic university in the country.

[scoscox]

Bill, you make some good points regarding Gonzaga. I see the Xavier story as just as, if not more, remarkable in a lot of ways. The sweetest part of everything is how much we have flipped the script of our two biggest rivalries. I don’t know that any school has ever had a rivalry flipped as hard on them as what Xavier has done to uc. It’s hard To describe just how much I have enjoyed that turnabout

[kayako]

I see the Xavier story as just as, if not more, remarkable in a lot of ways.

Degree of difficulty goes to Xavier, IMO, because you guys weren't lucky with coaching continuity. Butler's pretty remarkable as well.

[scoscox]

I see the Xavier story as just as, if not more, remarkable in a lot of ways.

Degree of difficulty goes to Xavier, IMO, because you guys weren't lucky with coaching continuity. Butler's pretty remarkable as well.

That, combined with continually moving up conferences, makes what Xavier has done pretty incredible in my humble opinion

[Savannah Jay]

I don’t think a big alumni base is necessary in all circumstances. Notre Dame draws 80,000 fans to every home football game and gets huge TV ratings, sufficient to justify their own TV contract for football with NBC. They don’t have an enrollment any bigger than most Big East schools. With a similar enrollment, Duke is to college basketball what Notre Dame is to college football.

Notre Dame football is an animal unto itself...it's alumni base is a very small part of its following. Because it's the only Catholic school with championship pedigree in football (and one of the few to field an FBS team), there are a LOT of Notre Dame fans whose only connection to the university is that they are Catholic.

[Bill Marsh]

I don’t think a big alumni base is necessary in all circumstances. Notre Dame draws 80,000 fans to every home football game and gets huge TV ratings, sufficient to justify their own TV contract for football with NBC. They don’t have an enrollment any bigger than most Big East schools. With a similar enrollment, Duke is to college basketball what Notre Dame is to college football.

Notre Dame football is an animal unto itself...it's alumni base is a very small part of its following. Because it's the only Catholic school with championship pedigree in football (and one of the few to field an FBS team), there are a LOT of Notre Dame fans whose only connection to the university is that they are Catholic.

Agree. It’s not a perfect analogy, but I was trying to point out that when Villanova sells out Wells Fargo, those aren’t all Nova alums. Same thing when the Big East Tournament sells out The Garden.

[gtmoBlue]

I don’t think a big alumni base is necessary in all circumstances. Notre Dame draws 80,000 fans to every home football game and gets huge TV ratings, sufficient to justify their own TV contract for football with NBC. They don’t have an enrollment any bigger than most Big East schools. With a similar enrollment, Duke is to college basketball what Notre Dame is to college football.

Notre Dame football is an animal unto itself...it's alumni base is a very small part of its following. Because it's the only Catholic school with championship pedigree in football (and one of the few to field an FBS team), there are a LOT of Notre Dame fans whose only connection to the university is that they are Catholic.

Agree. It’s not a perfect analogy, but I was trying to point out that when Villanova sells out Wells Fargo, those aren’t all Nova alums. Same thing when the Big East Tournament sells out The Garden.

Most folk in Omaha aren't catholic or alums and Creighton fills the CLink...