Big East Conference Realignment v2018

[novahoops11]

5 years after the last round of realignment, it's interesting to see how some of the old Big East schools are doing.

Pitt's become a dumpster fire
West Virginia, Cincinnati, and Notre Dame have been solid in their new conferences
UConn's been down but just hired a good coach
Syracuse has been having mediocre seasons, squeaking into the tournament and then going on runs
Louisville has been bumping into scandal after scandal
South Florida: Who cares?

And in the Big East, Villanova has become one of the premier programs in the country

...and everyone has forgotten Boston College ever existed

[JPSchmack]

Gonzaga says they're staying put:

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2018/a ... s-stay/#/0

will be fascinating to see in 10-15 years who made the better decision between Wichita and Gonzaga.

You can't really make that assessment. It's not "Which is better, Staying vs Going." It's a four-point data set: Wichita State going, Gonzaga Staying, Gonzaga Going, Wichita State staying. And two of them will always be hypothetical (Wichita State staying; Gonzaga Going).

Ultimately, I think Gonzaga saw the WCC allowing to keep more of what they earn, and the certainty that comes with that, over the uncertainty of how they'd fit into the Mountain West long term going forward.

If the committee doesn't respect the WCC enough to give Gonzaga a better seed, or include Saint Mary's, (or BYU, or properly seed SMC and BYU). AND the committee also doesn't respect the MOUNTAIN WEST, EITHER... what's the difference got Gonzaga?

[JPSchmack]

If we assume:
1. Gonzaga is going to maintain the same NCAA unit performance regardless.
2. Other MWC teams would see an increase in NCAA units, from an addition of an extra 0.75 bids per year, so a 1.0 Unit increase per season.

Gonzaga is going to join a conference earning more NCAA units by other members (1.2 more per year). But they’re going to split those more ways.

Gonzaga in old WCC payout method: 0.44 units per year (0.36 own, 0.08 other members)
Gonzaga in MWC payout method: 0.53 units per year (.39 own, 0.14 other members)

So the MWC gives them a tiny bit more money. But the MWC also makes the path to the NCAA harder for them. The MWC is deeper than the WCC.

I won’t show my work, but the old WCC method was 1/10th even split.
The new MWC method is $200,000 bonus for making the dance, then rest gets shared 12 ways with Gonzaga in the league.

We don’t know the details of the new WCC revenue sharing plan for their NCAA units, but what’s been reported is that the WCC will pay a percentage bonus to the team that earns the unit, and that percentage will grow by NCAA round. THEN the rest will be shared. (That seems overly complicated, they should just go to the A-10 model).

[Jet915]

If we assume:
1. Gonzaga is going to maintain the same NCAA unit performance regardless.
2. Other MWC teams would see an increase in NCAA units, from an addition of an extra 0.75 bids per year, so a 1.0 Unit increase per season.

Gonzaga is going to join a conference earning more NCAA units by other members (1.2 more per year). But they’re going to split those more ways.

Gonzaga in old WCC payout method: 0.44 units per year (0.36 own, 0.08 other members)
Gonzaga in MWC payout method: 0.53 units per year (.39 own, 0.14 other members)

So the MWC gives them a tiny bit more money. But the MWC also makes the path to the NCAA harder for them. The MWC is deeper than the WCC.

I won’t show my work, but the old WCC method was 1/10th even split.
The new MWC method is $200,000 bonus for making the dance, then rest gets shared 12 ways with Gonzaga in the league.

We don’t know the details of the new WCC revenue sharing plan for their NCAA units, but what’s been reported is that the WCC will pay a percentage bonus to the team that earns the unit, and that percentage will grow by NCAA round. THEN the rest will be shared. (That seems overly complicated, they should just go to the A-10 model).

Big thing in the article too is exposure, Mountain West games are mostly on CBS Sports Network while ESPN caters to Gonzaga and shows alot of their games on main ESPN channels. Plus, WCC gave them a sweetheart deal ala Boise state football for Mountain West.

[Xudash]

Forgetting about some of the noise that will be coming about the BE being comprised of Nova and everyone else, the fact remains that Villanova - OF THE BIG EAST - has now won the National Championship in 2 of the last 3 years. The national champion has come from the Big East two of the last three years, in other words.

Now more than ever, it becomes abundantly clear that the Big East does not have to expand.

They were talking about the Gavitt games during the broadcast last night. As I've noted before, should we need a scheduling boost due to actions taken by the ACC and SEC, in particular, just put something else together with the Big XII. As was comically pointed out recently, Villanova just won that this year as well. Overall, if the perception is that expansion is necessary due to the 20-game schedule thingy, perhaps the perception is wrong, or at least has a work-around in the BE's case.

Otherwise, Gonzaga sits on a nice pinnacle for itself right now, but it truly sits there alone. It has made demands of an already weak conference. I'm not suggesting that its demands aren't reasonable, as I would be upset as well if I thought other league members weren't pulling their own weight. It's just that those suckling schools are going to have to figure out a way to become more competitive with less funding and their gorilla roaming larger in the room. Mark Few is 55 years old. Perhaps Gonzaga can ride his coattails another 5 to 10 years at a high energy level. I won't compare him to Roy Williams or Coach K on the age issue, because it's a different animal still when it comes to recruiting into the ACC versus a small Catholic school from Spokane.

Overall, all things considered, I believe Gonzaga probably made a good decision for itself, but it doesn't come without risk. The Big East is a bloodbath, but what a wonderful bloodbath it is.

[stever20]

Forgetting about some of the noise that will be coming about the BE being comprised of Nova and everyone else, the fact remains that Villanova - OF THE BIG EAST - has now won the National Championship in 2 of the last 3 years. The national champion has come from the Big East two of the last three years, in other words.

Now more than ever, it becomes abundantly clear that the Big East does not have to expand.

They were talking about the Gavitt games during the broadcast last night. As I've noted before, should we need a scheduling boost due to actions taken by the ACC and SEC, in particular, just put something else together with the Big XII. As was comically pointed out recently, Villanova just won that this year as well. Overall, if the perception is that expansion is necessary due to the 20-game schedule thingy, perhaps the perception is wrong, or at least has a work-around in the BE's case.

Otherwise, Gonzaga sits on a nice pinnacle for itself right now, but it truly sits there alone. It has made demands of an already weak conference. I'm not suggesting that its demands aren't reasonable, as I would be upset as well if I thought other league members weren't pulling their own weight. It's just that those suckling schools are going to have to figure out a way to become more competitive with less funding and their gorilla roaming larger in the room. Mark Few is 55 years old. Perhaps Gonzaga can ride his coattails another 5 to 10 years at a high energy level. I won't compare him to Roy Williams or Coach K on the age issue, because it's a different animal still when it comes to recruiting into the ACC versus a small Catholic school from Spokane.

Overall, all things considered, I believe Gonzaga probably made a good decision for itself, but it doesn't come without risk. The Big East is a bloodbath, but what a wonderful bloodbath it is.

noe thing regarding Few- we're not seeing guys remain at their schools anywhere near as long as they used to. I don't think we're ever going to see another Coach K or Boeheim- at their schools for 40 years. Only 11 current coaches in college basketball were at their schools in the 90's(only 8 guys completed 20 years now- and 3 of those are Boeheim, Coach K, and Izzo). Only 22 guys started at their schools before the 2005 season(so even 15 years). Only 49 been at their school a decade now. And you would think that's going to just get worse and worse. Few probably won't be around that much longer quite frankly.

[Savannah Jay]

Forgetting about some of the noise that will be coming about the BE being comprised of Nova and everyone else, the fact remains that Villanova - OF THE BIG EAST - has now won the National Championship in 2 of the last 3 years.

To this point, the team that just waltzed through the NCAA didn't even win the regular season in the Big East. While not as significant as Nova winning the Natty in 2016 or last night, Xavier winning the regular season this year was important, if only to quell some of the "only Nova" talk.

They were talking about the Gavitt games during the broadcast last night. As I've noted before, should we need a scheduling boost due to actions taken by the ACC and SEC, in particular, just put something else together with the Big XII. As was comically pointed out recently, Villanova just won that this year as well. Overall, if the perception is that expansion is necessary due to the 20-game schedule thingy, perhaps the perception is wrong, or at least has a work-around in the BE's case.

I've not read anything that articulated (in a way that made sense to me) why we would need to have a 20 game schedule. The only reason seems to be "because the _____ conference is doing it." I don't get it...and if I was a season ticket holder at one of the those 20 conference game schools, I am not sure I'd be pleased if they are going to substitute games with power conference teams for 2 more conference games. Think of how shitty the Big Ten was this year...using Michigan's schedule, they already played Michigan State, Purdue, and Ohio State twice. Given them two more Big Ten games...Nebraska, Rutgers, and Illinois are teams they only played once. So add a couple games there but then give up what from non-con? Do you give up two cupcakes? Or UNC and UCLA? Texas? Alabama A&M? Combo? And isn't the whole reason teams rotate their non-con is to give their fans some variety? Well, that much less room for variety.

[stever20]

Forgetting about some of the noise that will be coming about the BE being comprised of Nova and everyone else, the fact remains that Villanova - OF THE BIG EAST - has now won the National Championship in 2 of the last 3 years.

To this point, the team that just waltzed through the NCAA didn't even win the regular season in the Big East. While not as significant as Nova winning the Natty in 2016 or last night, Xavier winning the regular season this year was important, if only to quell some of the "only Nova" talk.

They were talking about the Gavitt games during the broadcast last night. As I've noted before, should we need a scheduling boost due to actions taken by the ACC and SEC, in particular, just put something else together with the Big XII. As was comically pointed out recently, Villanova just won that this year as well. Overall, if the perception is that expansion is necessary due to the 20-game schedule thingy, perhaps the perception is wrong, or at least has a work-around in the BE's case.

I've not read anything that articulated (in a way that made sense to me) why we would need to have a 20 game schedule. The only reason seems to be "because the _____ conference is doing it." I don't get it...and if I was a season ticket holder at one of the those 20 conference game schools, I am not sure I'd be pleased if they are going to substitute games with power conference teams for 2 more conference games. Think of how shitty the Big Ten was this year...using Michigan's schedule, they already played Michigan State, Purdue, and Ohio State twice. Given them two more Big Ten games...Nebraska, Rutgers, and Illinois are teams they only played once. So add a couple games there but then give up what from non-con? Do you give up two cupcakes? Or UNC and UCLA? Texas? Alabama A&M? Combo? And isn't the whole reason teams rotate their non-con is to give their fans some variety? Well, that much less room for variety.

They played once the following- Indiana, Illinois, Michigan St(their 2nd game was Big Ten tourney), Nebraska, Rutgers, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Penn St. So one of the games they would add would be home game with Michigan St. Yeah, I think they'd be pleased with that.

As far as what they would lose- UNC- no that would remain in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge. It would almost guaranteed be 2 of the cupcakes.

Of course, I think this thing may be overdone(and I thought it would be bigger but then looking at it more). Until the committee starts to take 17-15 type teams due to incredible SOS, it's tough to say that the increased SOS will matter that much. I think the thing to watch this summer is how much the advanced metrics creep into the selection process.

[JPSchmack]

Now more than ever, it becomes abundantly clear that the Big East does not have to expand.

The Big East is a bloodbath, but what a wonderful bloodbath it is.

I've been saying all along you don't NEED to expand. "Wonderful Bloodbath." What a great freaking phrase.

The Wonderful Bloodbath of Big East Play is why you don't get 7, 8 or 9 teams in the dance. If you're okay with that, great. Helps my league get more bids. So thanks.

But if the Big East followed the WCC's lead with a 16-game schedule, the way you guys win OOC... If you did 12 teams, 16 games, and picked the right two teams, you could send 9 or 10.

[butlerguy03]

But if the Big East followed the WCC's lead with a 16-game schedule, the way you guys win OOC... If you did 12 teams, 16 games, and picked the right two teams, you could send 9 or 10.

So why do you care so much if it helps your conference?

If the Big East expands, it will be due to market conditions (tv mainly) or a school becomes available that is impossible to pass up (Notre Dame, etc.)